March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

[jasons2k]

NWS forecast has me at 37 both Monday Night and Tuesday Night. Will be watching this closely - this is already getting into frost territory.

[jasons2k]

OK, lows next week have now been lowered to 35. This is getting serious and a little sickening now.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Light freeze possible next week

Shallow, but impressive surface cold front has moved to near the coast this morning with a strong temperature gradient over the region. Caldwell has fallen to 37 and Brenham 39 compared to 67 Lake Jackson and 65 at Galveston. Looks like the front is just about to reach the coast and will likely move offshore, so pretty much everyone has experienced their high temperature for the day. Air mass is very shallow (only about 2000-3000ft) deep, but very cold at the surface with the freezing line as far so as Waco. Expect temperatures to continue to fall this morning likely falling into the 40’s along and N of US 59 and then holding steady this afternoon into tonight.

Post frontal air mass is being overrun by warm and moist southerly flow over the frontal inversion resulting in more fog, drizzle, mist, and light rain over much of the region. With the front making better progress than what most models were thinking and likely to push offshore this morning, see little hope for much improvement in the clouds, fog, drizzle for this afternoon.

This afternoon is starting to look a little interesting with a short wav e expected to move across the area and a bit of elevate instability in place. I am a little nervous with an approaching disturbance after the events on Monday and Tuesday and sure enough both the HRRR and the TX Tech WRF indicate showers and even elevated thunderstorms will develop this afternoon mainly across the southern 2/3rds of the region or south of HWY 105. A few of the stronger cells could produce some small hail and brief heavy rainfall, but currently not thinking this will end up like Tuesday evening.

Surface front will move back northward and inland on Friday and bring a warm and humid air mass back across the area as well as sea fog. Dewpoints rebound into the mid to upper 60’s by Friday afternoon, so it will feel very different from today. Could see some showers develop in the warm air advection pattern on Friday and Saturday and highs Saturday may reach near 80. Sea fog will plague the coastal locations likely during this entire period and move inland each evening.

Bottom falls out of the temperatures on Sunday as a strong arctic front comes barreling through the region. Much of the area will start the day in the 60’s and 70’s and then the strong front will come through from the morning hours up north to the early afternoon along the coast. Temperatures will fall quickly into the 40’s behind the front with strong cold air advection. Clouds and even some light rain and drizzle will be possible behind the front as the shallow, but very cold air mass is overrun by southerly flow aloft. Do not expect temperatures to get out of the 40’s on Monday.

A secondary cold front moves across the region Monday/Tuesday with a deep push of cold and drier air which should finally be enough to clear out the clouds. Bad news is that with clear skies and calm winds low temperatures by the middle of next week could be near or below freezing for some locations. Currently looking at a light freeze, but sensitive vegetation has broken dormancy recently and could be damaged by a freeze. Will need to monitor low temperature trends for the middle of next week to see just how cold it may get.

[srainhoutx]

OK, lows next week have now been lowered to 35. This is getting serious and a little sickening now.

Since the temperatures have busted way too warm with the current front we have on February 28th, it raises an eyebrow that the models are just not handling these cold shallow airmasses well at all. Gardener's need to pay real close attention since we are going to be precariously close to freezing temperatures at least a couple of early mornings next week. Hopefully this is the last hurrah of our Winter. I am sick of this dreary, damp and chilly weather.

[DoctorMu]

OK, lows next week have now been lowered to 35. This is getting serious and a little sickening now.

Since the temperatures have busted way too warm with the current front we have on February 28th, it raises an eyebrow that the models are just not handling these cold shallow airmasses well at all. Gardener's need to pay real close attention since we are going to be precariously close to freezing temperatures at least a couple of early mornings next week. Hopefully this is the last hurrah of our Winter. I am sick of this dreary, damp and chilly weather.

Subfreezing for us Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights. 20s very possible.

Looks like we had to wait until March for winter!

[jasons2k]

Latest forecast: 35 Monday night, 36 Tuesday night.

[Electric Lizard]

Thanks for the reminder of our bluebonnet season coming up, Texas Pirate! I am looking forward to seeing our Texas wildflowers.

They are already popping out up here near Brenham.

[jasons2k]

I think I've burned a fire more in the last two weeks than I have the rest of the winter.

[unome]

our TX Primrose just started blooming, but the 40 & 30 degree temps in the forecast will no doubt send them away for a while yet.

I will bow to Ra, should he decide to make an appearance in the next week, I really need a sun fix

[srainhoutx]

Notice in the satellite imagery that unome posted that our cold front continues to advance SE well out in the Gulf. That front was supposed to be heading back N as a warm front by now according to the computer models. Frankly, the models are doing a very poor job right now and I really do not trust them to have answers to our sensible weather forecast. Cloudy, chilly and drizzly with fog today and maybe into tomorrow. Perhaps that warm front will arrive sometime tomorrow and warm us up, but as of now I have my doubts.

The next strong front arrives quicker early Sunday morning if the short term meso models are to be believed. Mid to late afternoon arrival with the Global models. Again, like yesterday I will hedge my bet that the short term guidance handles shallow cold air better than the Global guidance. If I were a Gardner living in the typically colder areas of Metro Houston, I would anticipate at least a light freeze Monday morning through Wednesday morning.

[jasons2k]

Yep, the NWS says another cool day today. I was really hoping for those 70’s this afternoon to end the work week. Personally I’ll take a warm humid fog over a cold damp fog any day:

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

After yesterday we are still not sure which is worse - warm humid
fog or cold damp fog. Regardless - stupid fog. Today it looks
like we will be stuck with cold damp fog for much of SE Texas.
Surface analysis shows cold front well into the Gulf and is still
on the move for the most part. AMDAR soundings show to cold
airmass to be maybe 2000ft deep and 925mb upper air analysis shows the 925mb front still over north Texas. This means there is some slight isentropic lift over this shallow cold front with saturated T/Td profiles. All this means is that cloud cover will remain, there is a chance of light drizzle that may not total 0.01" of precip and visibility reduced to 2 to 5 miles in general.

Overall change from yesterday`s forecast is that the stalling
cold front has not stalled yet and therefore cannot move back
north as a warm front today like most guidance suggested. The warm front may not develop and move north until Saturday so this means we have had to drop high temperatures quite a bit for today.

Temperatures today could range from the 50s north of Houston and low 60s south of Houston along the coast.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Same song…different day with clouds and fog.

Surface cold front has moved well out into the Gulf of Mexico and has yet to stall. Can’t have a warm frontal passage if the old front is still moving south, so expect the area to remain cold and cloudy all day with periods of drizzle, mist and fog. In fact the entire month of February has only had 2 days of sunny skies. Will hold temperatures pretty much where they are in the 40’s and 50’s today as light NNE winds continue to drain colder air from up north into the region.

Warm front will try and move northward tonight and Saturday, but it is questionable just how far north it will make it. Expect sea fog to develop once the sun sets over the nearshore waters and begin its inland push…so more fog and low visibilities tonight into early Saturday. Models want to bring the warm front inland and through at least a part of the area on Saturday, but I am starting to have some doubts on just how fast and how far north the boundary will make it. I can’t say the models have been handling the weather very well at all this week.

A fairly strong temperature gradient will develop on Saturday with the warm frontal boundary as it attempts to lift across the region. South of the boundary temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 70’s while areas north of the boundary will remain locked in the 50’s and 60’s. Think the coastal areas should get into the warm sector, but will also battle sea fog through the day which may hold back warming some. Overall it is a temperature mess with the warm front over the area on Saturday.

Powerful late season cold front will move across the area on Sunday with significant intrusion of arctic air over the NC plains. Cold front will blast off the coast during the day Sunday with temperatures quickly falling into the 40’s behind the front by Sunday evening and into the 30’s by Monday morning. Strong winds of 15-25mph with gust over 30mph can be expected helping to drive wind chills into the 20’s by Monday morning. Could see a line of showers with the front, but not expecting any heavy rainfall or thunderstorms with capping aloft. Clouds will not clear out behind the front immediately on Sunday night and Monday and there could be a little light rain on Monday as warm air flow up and over the cold surface dome. A stronger push of dry air moves into the area late Monday with a much drier air mass and clearing skies.

Forecast models continue to indicate the threat for a late season freeze by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week mainly to the north and west of the Houston area. Clearing skies, calming winds, and low dewpoints are all pointing toward at least a light freeze both mornings for areas along and NW of US 59. While typically such a freeze would be of little concern for our area, some sensitive vegetation had budded out and this new growth could be damaged by freezing temperatures. Will need to monitor to continue to see how low the temperatures may fall. Cold and dry air mass should result in clear skies for both these days before warm air advection and sea fog return by the end of next week.

[jasons2k]

March freezes are the worst. 6 weeks in the clear and now this!! Ugh.

[Cromagnum]

I hope its a strong freeze. Knock the damn weeds and bugs back a few notches and reset the clock so I can have more time to clean up the yard before the warm season crap starts popping up.

[jasons2k]

I hope its a strong freeze. Knock the damn weeds and bugs back a few notches and reset the clock so I can have more time to clean up the yard before the warm season crap starts popping up.

If you had a strong freeze down there, it would be total devastation up here. No thanks.

[Belmer]

Non-Texas weather news -

Just read a report that the temperature did not reach 70 degrees in downtown LA for all of February - the first time in at least 132 years (which is when forecasters began recording data). The average high for the month was 61 degrees, which makes it the eight coldest February on record there.

Link for more info: http://www.mohavedailynews.com/news/win ... a0181.html

[tireman4]

The NAM has done really well this airmass....humm
000
FXUS64 KHGX 011143
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

IFR at best to open the period around Southeast Texas with plenty
of light drizzle and fog. Think (hope?) for small, incremental
improvement through the day. From IAH northward, optimistically
have a few hours of very low end MVFR conditions breaking out.
But...keep in a SCT deck at IFR heights as a soft signal that we
may not make it. Once winds are fully back around to onshore by
this evening, it`s right back in the tank. Already hitting
visibility aggressively at the coast with the expectation for the
return of sea fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 417 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019/...



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

After yesterday we are still not sure which is worse - warm humid
fog or cold damp fog. Regardless - stupid fog. Today it looks
like we will be stuck with cold damp fog for much of SE Texas.
Surface analysis shows cold front well into the Gulf and is still
on the move for the most part. AMDAR soundings show to cold
airmass to be maybe 2000ft deep and 925mb upper air analysis shows
the 925mb front still over north Texas. This means there is some
slight isentropic lift over this shallow cold front with saturated
T/Td profiles. All this means is that cloud cover will remain,
there is a chance of light drizzle that may not total 0.01" of
precip and visibility reduced to 2 to 5 miles in general.

Overall change from yesterday`s forecast is that the stalling
cold front has not stalled yet and therefore cannot move back
north as a warm front today like most guidance suggested. The warm
front may not develop and move north until Saturday so this means
we have had to drop high temperatures quite a bit for today.
Temperatures today could range from the 50s north of Houston and
low 60s south of Houston along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Tonight temperatures should not drop too much as warm front
should be developing off the coast and cloud cover will keep
temperatures from dropping. Saturday the upper level pattern
should remain zonal across much of the southern U.S. and a trough
should open up over California and reach the southern Rockies
Saturday night. Meanwhile over Canada, high pressure should start
to build into the northern plains. This begins to re-enforce the
overall pressure gradient across the Plains and appears that a
boundary sharpens up across central to east Texas Saturday night.
Warm front is supposed to move north during the day Saturday but
hard to say how quickly this may happen. Temperature forecast for
Saturday could have a tight gradient with 70s south of the warm
front and more likely mid/upper 70s and then 60s north of the warm
front. We will lean more on a slower warm front push and keep
closer to ensemble means for the high temperature Saturday. With
the warm front and increased in moisture we do keep some rain
chances in the forecast for heavier drizzle (if there is such a
thing), showers and maybe an elevated thunderstorms Saturday
night. Low temperatures Sunday will also have a tight gradient
mainly due to where the warm front meets the approaching cold
front but overall expect low/mid 60s south of the boundary.

The trough/jet streak over the southern Rockies moves across the
southern Plains Sunday and provides the necessary forcing to help
push the cold front through the area on Sunday. Overall the
synoptic models are pretty close with timing but the mesoscale
models may be a touch faster with the front. This may largely be
due to the treatment of the warm front and where it stalls or
meets the cold front. Temperatures will be dropping through the
day with high temperatures occurring in the 6AM to 10AM time frame
Sunday and dropping into the 50s/40s by evening. There will be
most likely a line of showers with the front and maybe an isolated
thunderstorm. There may be some instability to tap for some
stronger convection, but capping may be an issue with boundary
layer from the SW to W ahead of the front. Overall there will be a
shot of rain and you may be lucky to get a quarter inch of
rainfall from it.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Behind the cold front we look to have a good 3 day stretch of
winter with low temperatures in the 30s and some areas dropping
below freezing. Best chances of a light freeze looks to be north
of Houston for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings as cold air
continues to move into the area. The 850mb front finally pushes
through Monday into Tuesday but until then there may be some weak
lift over the front so there is a small chance of rain on Monday.
There might be a brief peek of sunshine Monday but better chance
of sunshine on Tuesday into Wednesday with high pressure building
over Texas.

High pressure moves east by the end of the week setting up return
flow. We don`t want to think about the prospects of fog yet but
with a few days of cold air over the area, Gulf waters along the
coast and in the bays will have a chance to cool some more.
Moisture return next Thur/Fri could set up nicely for another fog
event. In short, get outside Tuesday and Wednesday while the sun
is out to enjoy.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Northerly winds on the waters are veering towards northeasterly late
tonight while slowly diminishing. Winds are expected to continue to
slowly veer, becoming easterly by this evening. As flow returns to
being onshore, look for patchy sea fog to redevelop. That sea fog
should increase in coverage and intensity into the weekend.

A cold front expected to cross the waters on Sunday will usher a
round of showers and thunderstorms, followed by colder and drier air
scouring out sea fog. Behind the front, expect strengthening winds.
Caution flags are likely, and a small craft advisory is possible
Sunday into Monday. Winds are expected to stay near the SCEC
threshold deeper into next week.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 57 53 68 60 61 / 10 20 30 40 50
Houston (IAH) 62 58 73 66 70 / 10 10 30 30 60
Galveston (GLS) 62 60 67 63 68 / 10 10 30 20 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

[jasons2k]

I hope its a strong freeze. Knock the damn weeds and bugs back a few notches and reset the clock so I can have more time to clean up the yard before the warm season crap starts popping up.

Actually, you shouldn't be hoping for a freeze at all. You want warmer weather so your grass will grow and crowd-out the weeds. A freeze will do little to knock down the weeds. All it will do is send your lawn back into dormancy and prolong your weed problem. You want 65F+ weather as much as possible to thicken-up that lawn. A weed's worst enemy is a thick, healthy lawn and you will only get there with prolonged warm weather.

Put another way, a freeze is about the same as scalping your lawn with a lawn mower (which, by the way, you should never do!! Just like Crepe Murder). Scalping your lawn removes the shade canopy, its ability to retain moisture, and makes it more susceptible to disease and weeds in the long term. A freeze has a very similar result when book-ended by warm weather.

The weed problem you are seeing today is likely the result of that hard freeze back in November followed by cool, damp weather. Perfect recipe for a weed infestation. Another freeze will just set you back again. What you need now is heat.

[srainhoutx]

The Climate Prediction Center Experimental Week 3 and 4 Outlook suggests below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across our Region...

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Mar 01 2019

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 16 2019-Fri Mar 29 2019

EL Nino conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The RMM MJO index indicates that the MJO propagated eastward across the Western Hemisphere and Africa into the Western Indian Ocean during the last two to three weeks. The GEFS forecast of the RMM index depicts the MJO signal to continue a fast eastward propagation during Week-1, but weakens over the Indian Ocean during Week-2 due to continued interactions with equatorial Rossby waves and interactions with the El Nino state. The Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model forecasts from the NCEP CFS, the ECMWF, and the JMA operational ensemble prediction systems, as well as forecasts from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a multi-model ensemble (MME) of experimental ensemble prediction systems. Consideration is also given to the possible evolution of the predicted circulation pattern for Week-2.

Dynamical model guidance from the various models is broadly consistent, depicting a trough over the Bering Sea into the North Pacific, and a ridge over mainland Alaska. Dynamical model ensembles from the CFS and ECMWF depict near or below normal 500-hPa height anomalies over western Alaska, the Aleutians, parts of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, while above normal 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over eastern Alaska. the Alaska Panhandle, the northwestern CONUS, and the Northeast. The CFS, ECMWF, and JMA indicate near to above normal 500-hPa heights over Hawaii.

Positive 500-hPa height anomalies increase chances of above normal temperatures over western Washington, western Oregon, and the Northeast. Below normal temperatures are favored for the central CONUS, while above normal temperatures are forecast for the Florida Panhandle, consistent with the CFS, ECMWF and SubX forecasts. The dynamical models forecast above normal temperatures across the Alaska Peninsula, mainland Alaska, and the Alaska Panhandle.

The Week 3-4 precipitation outlook indicates increased probabilities of above median precipitation for parts of the Southern Plains and the Southeast, while below median precipitation is forecast over southern California, and parts of the Southwest and the Southern Rockies, consistent with the CFS, ECMWF and SubX forecasts. Below median precipitation is more likely for parts of the Northern Plains, the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Great Lakes area, supported by most of the dynamical model forecasts. Anomalous ridging leads to enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation for western portions of mainland Alaska. Conversely, above normal precipitation is favored for the Alaska Panhandle and the Aleutians underneath moist southerly flow ahead of the trough forecast over the Bering Sea.

Sea surface temperature anomalies are currently weakly negative around Hawaii, and the bulk of dynamical model guidance, including the experimental SubX models, depict enhanced chances for above normal temperatures over the southeastern islands and below normal temperature over the northwestern islands. Dynamical model precipitation forecasts strongly favor below normal precipitation which is consistent with weak El Nino conditions.

[jasons2k]

Mon night: 33
Tue night: 34

The downward trend continues...how low will it go?