Wx Infinity Forums

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:52 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:00 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:15 pm

Not for me it hasn’t and I’ve been following meteorologists and the weather for 31 years.

Yeah, well you’re probably older than me lol I haven’t been following it for half that long. This winter was hyped up way too much. It’s just an average winter honestly to me.

My point is I don’t consider this winter a bust. It has been cooler than average and that’s all you can ask for down here.

Asking for snow and ice every Winter is not living in reality.

Here in ATX (Mabry) both December (0.7 above) and January (0.4 above) have been slightly above average. November (climatological fall) was definitely below average at -4.2 the norm.

Interesting to note that in a few years the "normal period" that NOAA uses to compare temps will shift. It's currently using 1981-2010 time period. The 1991-2020 period will have a significantly warmer base number.

The Climate Prediction Center Outlook for Week 3 and Week 4 suggest ENSO Neutral conditions are likely and a persistent West Coast Ridge and a rather deep trough situated to the East of the Rockies. Interesting to see the CPC suggest colder than normal temperatures across the Southern Plains and above normal rainfall across the Southern half of Texas.

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 09 2019-Fri Feb 22 2019

ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific. The CPC 200-hPa velocity potential based and RMM-based MJO indices indicate the MJO signal quickly propagated east from Africa to the Maritime Continent during mid-January. Dynamical ensemble model forecasts indicate the enhanced phase of the MJO signal progressing east across the West Pacific during the next two weeks. The Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model guidance from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), ECMWF and JMA operational ensemble prediction systems and the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), an experimental multi-model ensemble (MME) of both operational and experimental dynamical models as well as statistical model guidance that uses correlations between indices for major modes of climate variability, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the temperature and precipitation over North America. The potential evolution of climate conditions from forecasts for Week-2 are also considered.

Dynamical model guidance from the various models is broadly consistent, depicting a trough over the Aleutians, while anomalous ridging is forecast over the western CONUS and extending northward through mainland Alaska. Downstream anomalous troughing is anticipated over the eastern CONUS. The ECMWF and JMA ensemble means favor near-normal 500-hPa height anomalies over Hawaii, while the CFS indicates negative 500-hPa height anomalies over Hawaii.

The Week 3-4 temperature outlook indicates increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures for the western half of the CONUS, with the greatest probabilities along the West Coast, supported by dynamical model forecasts, and in particular the SubX MME. Below-normal temperatures are most likely over the eastern half of the CONUS and parts of the Southern Plains, as indicated by the CFS, ECMWF and Subx MME. Anomalous ridging and positive 500-hPa height anomalies increase the chances of above normal temperatures over Alaska, with the greatest probabilities over the southeastern Alaska, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts.

With a mean ridge over western North America in dynamical model forecasts and northerly flow over much of the central and eastern CONUS west of a predicted trough axis, below normal precipitation is most likely over a broad area of the CONUS. Enhanced odds for above normal precipitation are indicated across southern Texas, supported by most dynamical precipitation tools and the Subx MME. Mean troughing over the Aleutian Islands in dynamical model forecasts leads to likely above normal precipitation for much of the southern coast of Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, supported by precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF and JMA ensembles and the SubX MME.

Probabilistic forecasts from the SubX MME indicate likely above normal temperatures for the southeast islands, and near normal temperatures for the northwest islands. Consensus probability forecasts from the SubX MME indicate below normal precipitation is likely across the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with the low-frequency state over the tropical Pacific.

A Hemispheric Pattern reshuffle is looking possible as February begins. The Arctic Oscillation has become negative and the forecast suggest a much below negative state may be likely.
Mike Ventrice of WSI tweeted this morning that the Pacific North American Oscillation looks to go negative via the European model schemes. We will see if this potential Pattern Reshuffle offers any changes to our sensible weather down here in Texas, Louisiana and along the Gulf Coast.

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 33m33 minutes ago
Interesting twist... Models are trending in favor of a robust -PNA. For what the PNA loading pattern looks like: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ding.shtml …

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:28 pm February is our most favored month (historically) for Winter Precip. Here’s to 2-3 MEASURABLE events in February!

The heaviest snow events occurred in February; 1895 and 1960.

Houston Snow
http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

Looking like a warmer and somewhat dreary early February start with the possibility fog, particularly Sunday through the first part of next week. Those cooler Gulf shelf water temperatures and warmer surface temperature over land are ideal for Sea/Bay Fog. Tis the Fog season by the way.

The ensembles do continue to advertise a switch in the pattern to that of a deeper Western trough and a Ridge along the East Coast as the first full week of February begins. February can be a month of extremes, so I wouldn't get too excited about warm air sticking around. Some of that building cold air in Western Canada may make its presence known down here in Texas the second week of February.

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:33 am Looking like a warmer and somewhat dreary early February start with the possibility fog, particularly Sunday through the first part of next week. Those cooler Gulf shelf water temperatures and warmer surface temperature over land are ideal for Sea/Bay Fog. Tis the Fog season by the way.

The ensembles do continue to advertise a switch in the pattern to that of a deeper Western trough and a Ridge along the East Coast as the first full week of February begins. February can be a month of extremes, so I wouldn't get too excited about warm air sticking around. Some of that building cold air in Western Canada may make its presence known down here in Texas the second week of February.

Careful there my friend our cold weather naysayers and warm weather lover members will be ordering their voodoo dolls of you with extra long pins.

cperk wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:04 am

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:33 am Looking like a warmer and somewhat dreary early February start with the possibility fog, particularly Sunday through the first part of next week. Those cooler Gulf shelf water temperatures and warmer surface temperature over land are ideal for Sea/Bay Fog. Tis the Fog season by the way.

The ensembles do continue to advertise a switch in the pattern to that of a deeper Western trough and a Ridge along the East Coast as the first full week of February begins. February can be a month of extremes, so I wouldn't get too excited about warm air sticking around. Some of that building cold air in Western Canada may make its presence known down here in Texas the second week of February.

Careful there my friend our cold weather naysayers and warm weather lover members will be ordering their voodoo dolls of you with extra long pins.

No we won't, cperk. We just like warmer temperatures.

Are we done with winter yet? Not a February fan at all.
My poor son is up in Minneapolis and they are throwing up the white flag...
I'm searching for a good ground hog stew...hows that for voodoo?

We will have a couple sharp cold fronts after the first week in February and that will be it (nothing out of the ordinary and no winter precip...Fort Worth might get a little). Soon after Valentine's Day, strong signs of Spring will start to appear right on cue. The pattern since winter started has not changed as models have showed the arctic coming....always 2 plus weeks out only to lose it. Here we are again with models showing the cold....2 weeks out. lol This will not change through February. We have 4 weeks left, that's it. Sure, we might have a couple half decent fronts in March but nothing has ever happened down here in March. I would absolutely love to eat crow but....4 SHORT WEEKS LEFT.

lol you can't trust long range models,We still have plenty of time...you can't talk abot what's going to happen in 2 weeks nobody knows.. we can say the GFS fv3 run from this morning show sleet and freezing most of Texas lol

redneckweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:45 pm We will have a couple sharp cold fronts after the first week in February and that will be it (nothing out of the ordinary and no winter precip...Fort Worth might get a little). Soon after Valentine's Day, strong signs of Spring will start to appear right on cue. The pattern since winter started has not changed as models have showed the arctic coming....always 2 plus weeks out only to lose it. Here we are again with models showing the cold....2 weeks out. lol This will not change through February. We have 4 weeks left, that's it. Sure, we might have a couple half decent fronts in March but nothing has ever happened down here in March. I would absolutely love to eat crow but....4 SHORT WEEKS LEFT.

We had a ice storm that shut down the city in March of 2014. Schools were out and flyovers were caked.

I remember well. I drove from conroe to the Beltway and back in it.

https://m.chron.com/news/slideshow/Wint ... -81203.php

Also, we had a few snow showers in 2008 or 2009 in March. We almost got some in April in the last decade. They clipped our northern viewing locations.

BlueJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:55 am

cperk wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:04 am

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:33 am Looking like a warmer and somewhat dreary early February start with the possibility fog, particularly Sunday through the first part of next week. Those cooler Gulf shelf water temperatures and warmer surface temperature over land are ideal for Sea/Bay Fog. Tis the Fog season by the way.

The ensembles do continue to advertise a switch in the pattern to that of a deeper Western trough and a Ridge along the East Coast as the first full week of February begins. February can be a month of extremes, so I wouldn't get too excited about warm air sticking around. Some of that building cold air in Western Canada may make its presence known down here in Texas the second week of February.

Careful there my friend our cold weather naysayers and warm weather lover members will be ordering their voodoo dolls of you with extra long pins.

No we won't, cperk. We just like warmer temperatures.

And you will get plenty of warm weather in July.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:06 pm https://m.chron.com/news/slideshow/Wint ... -81203.php

Also, we had a few snow showers in 2008 or 2009 in March. We almost got some in April in the last decade. They clipped our northern viewing locations.

I don't remember that icing in March of 2014 to save my life. lol That's about as rare as it gets down here.

I remember it, there were even some power outages in the Katy area due to small limbs falling, what stopped the storm from being a major event was that temps were borderline hovering around 32-33F with heavy rain.If temps were a couple degrees colder the March 2014 storm would have rivaled the major ice storm of 1997, some parts of Southeast Texas saw up to an inch of ice accumulation from that event.

redneckweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:25 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:06 pm https://m.chron.com/news/slideshow/Wint ... -81203.php

Also, we had a few snow showers in 2008 or 2009 in March. We almost got some in April in the last decade. They clipped our northern viewing locations.

I don't remember that icing in March of 2014 to save my life. lol That's about as rare as it gets down here.

Any winter weather is rare but that winter we had 7 separate ice events. Hell, this last decade has been one of the best decades ever for Winter events in SE Texas.

Trends the last 24 hours and again overnight suggest a cold front arrives next Wednesday/Thursday ending the warm weather that we will experience this weekend into early next week.

An active highly progressive pattern develops as several storm systems crash into the west Coast and spread inland. It appears there are at least 3 storms that will impact the West Coast and California spreading heavy lower elevation rainfall and higher elevation snow inland over the weekend. A series of upper level disturbances ride across Texas and a Coastal trough/low organizes Friday bringing at least a chance of rainfall beginning Thursday night and continuing into Saturday. Rainfall amounts do not look that heavy, but will need to monitor trends for Saturday as that may be the best chance of any meaningful rainfall.

Next week, very cold air that will be building across our source Region of Western Canada looks to begin dropping South of the Canadian Border. Virtually all the Global guidance is in agreement lending to some confidence of a rather strong Canadian Front arriving next Wednesday/Thursday. The fly in the ointment is a vigorous storm system heading our way from the Eastern Pacific. That strong wet storm system embedded in the sub tropical jet could present p type issues across Texas if the cold front arrives 12 to 24 hours ahead of the deep tropical moisture that is depicted in some of the model schemes. Don't get too caught up in the precipitation maps via the models right now. 7+ Days out, it's best to focus on the ensembles and their respective upper air pattern as the days role forward.

One thing that has always plauged me is identifying these coastal troughs on the models. Other than precip I am having a hard time picking out wind or pressure signals. Does anyone have some insight on how best to spot these?

redneckweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:25 pm I don't remember that icing in March of 2014 to save my life. lol That's about as rare as it gets down here.

It was about a month and a couple weeks before my wife and I got married. We were getting married at my parents land in Cat Spring an hour west of Houston. They lost so many trees and tree limbs from that storm that we spent the next month every weekend going out and picking it all up and transporting it to the burn pile so the place would be as beautiful as we had imagined. It looked like a twister had gone through.

Wxman57 on s2k talking about his "Canadian Wall" may fail in the coming weeks. Hints in the long range building cold air in western Canada may drop south in the coming weeks. Models have been rough though lately so it is a big grain of salt...