FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

[Katdaddy]

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving across SE TX this morning. The cloudy gloomy weather is back for several days. Perhaps some clearing Saturday afternoon and Sunday still looks mostly sunny.

[snowman65]

hey....it's raining...,.imagine that!

[tireman4]

335
FXUS64 KHGX 211148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.AVIATION...
Low pressure off the lower texas coast will move north today. The
low and associated warm front will produce periods of showers and
isolated thunderstorms today. Fcst soundings show some capping
near 700 mb and lapse rates/instability not terribly high so feel
the threat for thunder is low but not zero. Ceilings will lower
throughout the day, transitioning from VFR to IFR by evening with
LIFR expected after 00z. Fcst soundings show drying from the
top/down after 00z and this looks favorable for drizzle between
03-12z. Surface dew points will warm into the lower/mid 60`s after
06z toward the coast and KGLS might have to contend with dense
sea fog later tonight as well. Lastly, another disturbance on
Friday morning will produce additional morning storms over mainly
the eastern half of the CWA and added a VCTS for KIAH, KHOU and
KGLS after 10z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...

High pressure over central TX has moved eastward while a surface
low pressure located over western Gulf of Mexico continues to move
northwards towards the lower TX coast. After midnight, light to
moderate showers moved inland northward from the Gulf waters as
another area of isolated shower activity to the north expanded
across the northern counties. By 3 AM CST early this morning, most
of the CWA had scattered to numerous showers with isolated
thunderstorms quickly moving north to northeast. Due to how fast
they were moving, accumulations were not significant...most of
the rainfall totals observed were less than half of an inch.

There are several things to consider for today through Saturday.
A surface low and associated warm front will continue to move
towards the local coastal waters today, resulting in isentropic
lift across the region. Models show a surge of low level moisture
spreading across the CWA this morning with PWAT values of
1.10-1.50 inches by around noon today decreasing slightly
tonight. Expect a wet and unstable weather pattern today with
periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the
local area, slightly decreasing this evening.

Another surge in low level moisture is seen Friday morning and
Friday afternoon which coincides with the timing of the warm front
associated to the surface low moving over the region. Southerly
flow Friday will also aid in the transport of the warm moist air.
An upper level low will gradually move across the Rockies
Thursday night though Friday with the cold front approaching the
northern portion SE TX Saturday morning.

PWAT values Friday afternoon reach up to around 1.70 inches.
Guidance shows pulses of vorticity in the 500 MB layer moving in
and out of the local area, particularly over the eastern and
northern counties Thursday through Friday. Soundings Friday
afternoon show K index values of over 30, while also showing
favorable CAPE and shear values for the development of strong
showers and thunderstorms, particularly over the northern
counties. The latest Hi-Res Precip run is in agreement with
placing the heaviest/strongest activity across the aforementioned
areas through Saturday morning. The current POP model blend
represents this as well, with the highest POPs residing over the
eastern and northern counties of the CWA through Saturday morning.
Additionally, SPCs Day 2 Outlook continues with a marginal risk
of severe storms across the north and northeastern counties for
Friday night through early Saturday morning. In general,
conditions will continue to be favorable for periods of showers
and thunderstorms today through Saturday morning.

High temperatures Friday and Saturday will range between the
upper 60s to the mid 70s due to the warm/moist air mass in place.
Highs should range between the low to upper 60s during the rest of
the forecast period. Low temperatures should range between the
low 40s to upper 50s everyday expect Friday night were lows will
be up in the low to upper 60s. 24

MARINE...

Moderate NE winds have developed in response to high pressure
northeast of the region and low pressure off the south Texas coast.
The pressure gradient will relax later today as the low moves north.
Winds will veer to the E tonight as the low approaches the coast and
continue to veer to the SE on Friday as the low and associated
warm front tracks into Texas.

Warm and moist air flowing over the cooler shelf waters could yield
areas of sea fog possibly as early as tonight but more likely Fri
and Sat. However, the onshore flow strengthens Fri nite and
additional mixing may limit the fog threat. A SCEC may be required
for the Gulf waters Fri Nite. The next cold front is expected to
cross the coastal waters late Saturday afternoon. This should end
the fog threat as an offshore flow develops. Another brief SCEC may
be required for the 20-60 NM waters in the wake of the front on
Sunday. Winds will veer to the E-NE on Sun Nite through early Tues
and a fairly stout and persistent east wind will prevail for about
30-36 hours. Tide levels could again briefly exceed 3.0 feet along
the Bolivar peninsula Monday into Tuesday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 50 67 58 69 / 50 50 70 70 60
Houston (IAH) 58 55 73 66 74 / 80 60 70 50 70
Galveston (GLS) 63 60 70 65 73 / 70 60 40 30 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Friday morning for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...43

[CrashTestDummy]

hey....it's raining...,.imagine that!

Yup! There goes our chances for draining the swamp. :-/

Almost a 1/2" here this morning.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211559
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
959 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.UPDATE...

Warm air advection pattern continues this morning with isentropic
lift and elevated instability supporting showers and a few
thunderstorms over top drizzle/light rain. Coastal trough is still
off the coast with a broad area low pressure developing on it
between CRP and 42019 buoy. This pattern should continue today and
tonight with a warm front pushing north tomorrow which will bring
more wet weather to the area. Main changes to the forecast were
to update PoP/Wx/QPF based on current trends. Also updated T/Td
trends as there should not be much warming today.

Overpeck

[jasons2k]

Think there will be a break in the rain so I can get a run in later today or tomorrow? I need to run again before Sunday!

[tireman4]

Think there will be a break in the rain so I can get a run in later today or tomorrow? I need to run again before Sunday!

Well, there is a treadmill. Will be using mine!!

[Kingwood36]

Sooooooooooooooooo....I guess it's safe to say "winter" what little of it we had is over?

[BlueJay]

Sooooooooooooooooo....I guess it's safe to say "winter" what little of it we had is over?

That is the million dollar question. I think the answer is "Yes" or "No".

[Cpv17]

Sooooooooooooooooo....I guess it's safe to say "winter" what little of it we had is over?

No, not yet.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211842
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.AVIATION...
Did not make a lot of changes from previous TAF set as we continue
with this wet/messy pattern. LIFR and IFR CIGS/VIS to persist thru
the afternoon (and overnight) across our central/southern sites as
the warm front slowly moves inland. Sea fog will remain an ongoing
issue at GLS until the next cold front (Sat afternoon). Otherwise,
with short-term models verifying well of late, another round of TS
tomorrow morning along the I-45 corridor near IAH/HOU. 41

[jasons2k]

Think there will be a break in the rain so I can get a run in later today or tomorrow? I need to run again before Sunday!

Well, there is a treadmill. Will be using mine!!

I haven't run on a treadmill since March of last year. I gave it away a few months ago. My wife, who is an OT, advised me to wean myself off of it due to some repetitive stress issues. I tried running outside one day last Spring Break, while we were in Austin, and I remembered why I love running in the first place. I thought about keeping it as a backup but it sat for so long, unused, I felt it was best to give it someone in the family who wanted it

Anyway, sure was a chilly day. Soup weather. I'm looking forward to some warmer weather, even if it's just for a few days before we repeat again next week. Time is running out for us to get any 'winter weather' this far south.

[Katdaddy]

A band of showers is pushing N across inland areas of SE TX this morning. Expect more development later this afternoon. A cold front will move across SE TX tomorrow morning with some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. The SPC has a marginal risk threat for the Houston-Galveston areas. Behind the front tomorrow morning the skies will begin clearing resulting in a nice Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

[srainhoutx]

February is nearing an end and March may come in like a Lion. The guidance suggests that colder and wet weather may be the theme. Notice the Blue shades deep into Texas as well as moisture along the Gulf Coast. The weak El Nino looks like it may keep things unsettled throughout the Spring. Perhaps someone will start a March Topic for us.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221222
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.AVIATION...
Poor flying conditions will continue through the TAF period with
widespread LIFR conditions and drizzle ongoing. The round of
showers and isolated thunder which developed along the weak trough
axis earlier this morning has began dissipate and move east of the
terminals. Ceilings and visibilites should see some improvement to
IFR over the next few hours, as short term guidance such as the
TT WRF, ARW, and NMM indicate a break in showers area wide
through mid to late morning.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms should develop once again by
late morning as a warm front pushes northward and inland.
Visibilities and ceilings will likely fall again to IFR/LIFR
criteria. Guidance suggests the front making it as far north as
about IAH before washing out over the region. This round of
precipitation should diminish shortly after sunset, though
fog/drizzle should continue through the remainder of the TAF
period. Therefore, LIFR ceilings and visibilites are anticipated
once again tonight. Just outside the TAF period is the arrival of
a cold front which is forecast to reach CLL around 12Z Saturday.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
At 300 AM, low pressure was located east of the lower/middle
TX coast with a warm front extending to the north and east of the
low. A weak trough of low pressure was noted across north central
LA extending southwest into SE TX. Showers have developed along
this weak trough and will continue to do so through the morning.
No lightning yet, but it would not come as a surprise if lightning
develops as the storms move off to the north. There should be a
gap in the precipitation later this morning but a weak vort lobe
will approach the area from the west and this should trigger
additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. PW values do
increase to between 1.40 and 1.70 inches and with a warm front
near by, feel there should be a good chance of shra/tsra by
afternoon. That said, most of the activity should remain benign as
fcst soundings show a dry layer between 850-500 mb and weak
capping in the 850-700 layer. SREF ensembles and short term
guidance still keeping sea fog near the coast today which seems
reasonable considering 70 degree dew point air is flowing over 58
degree shelf waters. Winds pick up later today/tonight and that
could mitigate the fog threat but will keep a mention of fog in
the weather grids through Saturday morning.

Clouds will persist tonight and temperatures will remain nearly
steady or slowly warm overnight in the wake of todays warm front.
Fcst soundings support some drizzle overnight. The drizzle will
transition to showers as moisture profiles saturate. A cold front
will approach the NW parts of the region by 12z and showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage. Some of the storms could
be strong toward Saturday morning. SPC has placed the eastern
half of SE TX in Marginal Risk and the extreme NE part in Slight
Risk for severe weather. This again appears to be reasonable as
capping weakens and lapse rates steepen to about 7.0 C. CAPE is
so-so but Mu CAPE reaches about 1770 J/Kg. PW values reach 1.80
inches and K index values reach 40 over the far eastern parts of
the CWA. The most likely severe weather hazards expected will be
hail (wet bulb zero around 10000 feet) and strong gusty winds.
WPC has the area outlooked in Marginal Risk for heavy rain but the
system is fast moving so not expecting much in the way of heavy
rain. Skies will clear by early afternoon and the bulk of Saturday
looks pretty nice once the storms exit.

Sunday and Monday look nice with high pressure over the central
plains ridging into Texas. Moisture returns Monday night and
showers should redevelop over the area. Fcst soundings show a
saturated layer from the surface up to 700 mb. Conditions look to
remain unsettled until another cold front crosses the region
on Thursday. 43

MARINE...
A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM across both
Galveston and Matagorda Bays, as well as the nearshore waters this
morning. Observations have been varying between 0.5 to 1 nm, and
webcams along the coast confirm areas of fog with pockets of dense
fog. There is the potential for this advisory to be extended, as
favorable conditions for sea fog look to continue until the passage
of the next cold front Saturday afternoon.

Northwesterly winds should shift out of the southeast today as a
warm front progresses inland late this morning and washes out over
the area. Moisture values will rise and better coverage of showers
can be anticipated today through tomorrow morning. Moderate onshore
flow is forecast for Saturday morning ahead of the next cold front
which should push through the region Saturday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and out ahead of this frontal
passage. Moderate northwesterly winds will prevail behind the
boundary beginning late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

Winds will turn easterly late Sunday and remain out of the east
through Tuesday morning before turning back onshore. As a result,
tide levels are forecast to rise to around 2.5 ft above MLLW. The
chance for showers returns to the forecast Tuesday through the
remainder of next week. Better coverage of showers will be possible
Wednesday into Thursday, with the approach of our next shortwave
disturbance. Additionally, another cold front looks to move through
the region next Thursday.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 58 70 43 64 / 40 60 60 0 0
Houston (IAH) 69 65 74 48 67 / 60 40 80 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 65 72 54 65 / 40 20 60 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...08

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 221731
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1131 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Surface mesoanalysis has a surface trough stretching out of low
pressure over the lower Texas coast north towards College Station
to Nacogdoches. This is a focus for clusters of showers and
thunderstorms late this morning. The true warm front is actually
just pushing inland along the upper Texas coast and then inland
Louisiana. Between the two boundaries is fog that is having a
tough time eroding and little improvement in visibility. Dense fog
advisory has been extended inland and to 3PM but we might be able
to cancel it before then. Marine dense fog advisory will stay in
effect until Saturday AM.

Water vapor imagery shows a short wave moving closer to the area
over the Hill country of Texas. This feature could trigger more
showers and a few elevated thunderstorms this afternoon but there
still will be some capping to overcome. HRRR and various WRF runs
show at least scattered showers with maybe an isolated
thunderstorm. That is what we will be monitoring through the
afternoon. There should be a break in shower activity this evening
but then increase by Saturday morning ahead of the cold front.

Overpeck

&&

.AVIATION...[18Z TAF Issuance]
Messy messy TAFS to persist through the afternoon with low VIS/CIGS
remaining in place. We could see some improvements with the passage
of the warm front from the south (except at GLS where sea fog is ex-
pected to linger). The front is not expected to move all the way in
to SE TX this afternoon, but should eventually do so by the evening
hours. Will be keeping a mix of LIFR/IFR conditions in place but we
should see a return of fog over inland areas tonight. Have kept the
PROB30 group (for TSRA) ahead/along the cold front tomorrow morning.
41

[jasons2k]

A little less rain than expected, so I got my run in. 68F is a great running temperature. Warm enough to sweat but not oppressive, and warm enough to run in shorts and not have to cover my ears.

[Cpv17]

A little less rain than expected, so I got my run in. 68F is a great running temperature. Warm enough to sweat but not oppressive, and warm enough to run in shorts and not have to cover my ears.

Like I said a few days ago, don’t expect much accumulating rainfall around this week even though the rain chances were high. The ingredients for that are well east of here. I’m so sick of this soupy nasty weather pattern we’ve been in for the past few weeks. Give me a week of blue sunny skies with lows around 50 and highs around 75 please.

[jasons2k]

It is suddenly very foggy here...it just rolled on in...

[Cromagnum]

It's disgusting outside.