January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[CRASHWX]

Sure does look to be building across a great deal Canada...

[Andrew]

Not really paying too much to the precipitation side yet, but it is telling that models are beginning to hint at the "stepping down" pattern that can bring some serious cold air this way.

[CRASHWX]

OK EVEN IF THIS IS WRONG BY FEW DEGREES IT IS STILL NASTY....as far as precip that could move a 100 mile north or south at this point! FREAKIN CRAZY WILD. I want to see if it corrects but what if it does not or even gets more aggressive? Wow

[CRASHWX]

[DoctorMu]

470438FA-21CC-4CF1-AAA8-0426BD0F5ED2.jpeg

Bastardi double downs:

[harp]

470438FA-21CC-4CF1-AAA8-0426BD0F5ED2.jpeg

Bastardi double downs:

Sucks that south Louisiana is left out! It's close and will change! (I hope).

[CRASHWX]

Man if this thing evolves...well let’s just say all bets are off!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

If this happens, I’ll be storm chasing the bullseye

[CRASHWX]

Hang tight something tells me the models are gonna bounce and it will take the mesoscale models to finish the job if it continues verify in future runs

[CRASHWX]

Channel 12 Bmt station

[jasons2k]

Looks like I'm gonna spend my Friday evening/Saturday morning covering plants, wrapping pipes, faucets, etc.

Get ready.

[Cpv17]

0z GFS not nearly as cold as 18z was for mid next week. Probably not much of a winter storm on this run.

[CRASHWX]

It will change many more times

[harp]

It's drastically different. I wonder what causes such drastic changes?

[Cpv17]

It's drastically different. I wonder what causes such drastic changes?

Well the 18z had a massive 1055mb high dropping down the plains from Canada. This run doesn’t even have a high at all. So it loses the front completely. It still has the low/trough, but it doesn’t dig far enough south and west into Mexico like it did on the 18z resulting in much less precip.

[redneckweather]

Not gonna lie... I felt a tingle in the nethers reading the 18z GFS FOR mid next week

Poof

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Not gonna lie... I felt a tingle in the nethers reading the 18z GFS FOR mid next week

Poof

Well yeah, it’s come and gone 3 times since it’s entered out modeled range.

As I said before, we haven’t seen a more favorable pattern (through the end of February) for multiple cold blasts and winter events. I haven’t seen one in the last decade like this despite several winter events coming from less likely atmospheric recipes.

Frankly, I’m just happy with the cold, but I do believe we have abnormally high chances for a significant event in the coming weeks. You’ve been around long enough to understand the pattern is ripe.

[CRASHWX]

Sure temp busted at my house 30 this morning

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
509 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings have developed over SE TX and cloudy skies are
expected for most of the day with conds possibly scattering out
briefly this aftn. A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings expected overnight
with ceilings gradually lowering toward morning. Have added a VCSH
for KLBX and KGLS after 09z as a weak coastal trough tries to
develop. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Stratus cloud deck will continue to expand eastward, encompassing
local area during the rest of the night into the early morning
hours. This will help bring up slightly the temperatures
overnight. Since temperatures were initially lowered to account
for the surface observations, they were readjusted again to match
the slight rise in temperatures as a result of the cloud deck.
Otherwise, high pressure north of the local area will continue to
move eastward and produce tranquil weather conditions today. Winds
will become more east throughout the day with velocities ranging
between 5 and 10 MPH. Temperatures should range between mid to
upper 50s today and between the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight.

Southerly winds along with a warm air advection pattern is
expected tonight through Friday enhancing moisture transport
across the local area as well as allow temperatures to gradually
rise through Friday. Highs should range in the 60s Wednesday and
in the 70s Thursday and Friday and lows should range in the mid
50s to low 60 Wednesday night through Friday night. Model guidance
suggest that a coastal surface low will move into the local
waters Wednesday, which will help further increase surface
moisture transport across the region. CAPE values also gradually
increase through Friday - highest values present on Friday
afternoon. The combination of available moisture, favorable moisture
and temperature advection and diurnal effects will produce shower
activity Wednesday into Friday with the potential for thunderstorm
development Thursday into Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage and
intensity on Friday afternoon through Saturday morning as a
strong upper level trough pushes into SE TX. PWAT values range
between 1.00 to 1.60 inches during this period. Associated cold
front is expected to pass through Saturday and transport colder
air across the region. At the moment, low temperatures dip down
into the mid to upper 20s North of I-10 and into the low to mid
30s South of I-10 Saturday and Sunday night. High temperatures
only reach the low to mid 40s on Sunday. A Hard Freeze Warning may
be required for some counties North of I-10. The downtown Houston
area may have some temperatures at or slightly below freezing,
but according to the current temperature model trend, should
remain above the Hard Freeze Warning criteria. Winds will shift NW
to N and increase up to 21 knots...slightly higher over the
coastal regions and Gulf waters Saturday afternoon into early
Sunday in the wake of the frontal boundary. Be prepared for the
colder temperatures and windy conditions, but keep in mind, this
forecast is still a few days away and could be subjected to
additional modifications. Dry air will prevail across the local
area Sunday through Tuesday with high temperatures gradually
rising.

MARINE...

Surface high pressure over NE TX will slide east today. The high will
bring a NE wind this morning with winds veering to the east later
today. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten on Wednesday as
low pressure develops over the TX panhandle and SE winds will
strengthen. The moderate onshore flow will bring deeper moisture
into the coastal waters and there is some potential for sea fog both
Thursday and Friday. Confidence for fog is not high at this time but
dew pts exceed 62 degrees but sfc winds have a SW component on
Thursday with winds backing to the SSE on Friday so it looks like
there is better potential for sea fog on Friday. SCEC/SCA flags may
be needed Fri night in advance of a very strong arctic cold front.
Sustained NW winds will reach 30 knots with higher gusts. An SCA or
Gale Watch may be required Saturday night. The strong offshore wind
may push water away from the coast and a Low Water Advisory may also
be needed Sat night into Sunday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 52 46 61 56 71 / 0 10 20 30 10
Houston (IAH) 55 48 61 58 72 / 0 10 40 40 30
Galveston (GLS) 55 54 62 60 66 / 0 20 40 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...24
Aviation/Marine...43

[redneckweather]

Not gonna lie... I felt a tingle in the nethers reading the 18z GFS FOR mid next week

Poof

Well yeah, it’s come and gone 3 times since it’s entered out modeled range.

As I said before, we haven’t seen a more favorable pattern (through the end of February) for multiple cold blasts and winter events. I haven’t seen one in the last decade like this despite several winter events coming from less likely atmospheric recipes.

Frankly, I’m just happy with the cold, but I do believe we have abnormally high chances for a significant event in the coming weeks. You’ve been around long enough to understand the pattern is ripe.

I honestly don't think we are going to see anything out of the ordinary for the remainder of the month. A quick hitting shot of cold arctic air this weekend and then some modified air for mid next week which wont be as cold as this weekends front. After that just some back n forth fronts with not a whole lot of real cold air to work with.