January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[jasons2k]

That was interesting. I got a really nice rain here tonight with that line that pushed through. I think as recently as this morning it was basically 0% with no mention of rain.

[srainhoutx]

International Falls, Minnesota currently -44F. Thankfully we live along the NW Gulf Coast where unexpected rain showers was the extent of a short term forecast bust.

[unome]

the rain washed the juniper pollen out of the air, beautiful sunny morning here - my kind of January

[MontgomeryCoWx]

International Falls, Minnesota currently -44F. Thankfully we live along the NW Gulf Coast where unexpected rain showers was the extent of a short term forecast bust.

-44F is actually a beautiful sight and feeling if dressed correctly. Everything is perfectly still almost as if the air is pixelated.

[unome]

beautiful, if you can experience it from the sidelines for a few - dangerous for kids waiting for the school busses, etc...

from Des Moines, IA this morning: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/af ... 1901271159

***Life-threatening record cold air chills likely Tuesday-Friday***

Code: Select all

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
559 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday/ 
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

The primary concerns through this period will be precipitation 
trends, mainly snow, and wind potential later tonight into Monday. 
The parent and noted PV anomaly and associated surface low in 
question was diving through the Canadian provinces early this 
morning with warm/theta-e advection already spreading cloudiness 
well into the MO Valley. Confidence is medium to high for the 
progression into tonight with models in good agreement. They suggest 
this thermodynamic forcing will strengthen and spread into northeast 
Iowa through the day, peaking +/- 00z with further aid from strong 
frontogenesis. The forcing will be deep and aided by strong DPVA as 
well. Thus expect snow to advance into Iowa, mainly north, by midday 
with fairly intense snow ongoing by afternoon with some blowing 
snow. The precipitation window will not last longer than six to 
eight hours, but would not be surprised to see inch/hour rates at 
some point. Static stability does lower into the evening on the nose 
of the dry slot with H5/H6 EPV dipping just negative as the precip 
ends just after midnight. The going forecast is up to 6 inches in 
the NE corner, but would not be surprised to see locally higher 
amounts. Thus existing warnings and advisories will remain unchanged 
for now.

This dry slot and loss of ice introduction may lead to a brief 
wintry mix and even just a cold rain tonight south on the back side 
with a brief appearance of a warm/moist low level burst pushing 
temps just above freezing before strong cold advection sweeps in 
early Monday crashing temperatures. Any freezing drizzle and/or 
sleet accums are expected to be light and inconsequential, if at 
all. However the cold advection will lead to concerns of a flash 
freeze central and south Monday, especially if light rain dilutes or 
washes off pre-treatment, with temps dropping from just above 
freezing to the teens in a matter of hours. Thus winter headlines 
may eventually need to be expanded southward if confidence in this 
trend increases. Temps will be crashing throughout the day Monday 
ushering in the start of what may be a generational cold surge later 
in the week.

Winds will also be a factor leading to considerable blowing and 
drifting snow Sunday Night into Monday wherever appreciable snow 
falls, even after the precipitation ends. The highest end of 
sustained wind guidance, generally MOS, suggests a few counties west 
central to 30 mph plus and Bufkit mixing algorithms note most 
locations staying below the 45 mph gust criteria. Thus no wind 
headlines as of yet, but they cannot be ruled out depending on 
trends and  how winter impacts play out Monday. Initial thought is 
to play things conservative wind headline wise at this point with 
current headlines highlighting more significant and more likely 
impacts, moderate to heavy wind blown snow and wind chills later 
this week.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

***Life-threatening record cold air chills likely Tuesday-Friday***

Synopsis: 
Models remain locked in with at a perfect setup for dangerous cold
across the Upper Midwest as an upper low that is progged to have
500mb heights to ~487 dam establishes itself over the Great Lakes
Region starting Wednesday morning, and persisting into Thursday
night. Concurrently, a huge thermal ridge parks itself over the
Intermountain west. Though Iowa may see "junky" stratus Wednesday
morning, the lack of a purely radiational cooling night will not
be enough of a mitigator to nix the threat of dangerous cold
temperatures. Models pushing 850mb temps in the -35C to -40C
range. Forecast soundings do not decouple winds overnight,
suggesting low wind chill values will be wind-driven. Long-range
models have shown decent enough run-to-run consistency and
agreement over the past several days/week to have medium-high
confidence in this cold air occurring. In summary, this is 
shaping up to be the coldest air/wind chill temperatures over Iowa
in quite some time. The consecutive string of dangerously cold 
days may amplify impacts.

Forecast Changes: 
Have increased winds ~5 knots from Tuesday morning through 
Thursday morning. This will serve to lower wind chills a few more 
degrees.

Hazard potential: 
Starting Tuesday morning and lasting possibly into Friday 
morning, a prolonged period of a wind chill advisory/wind chill 
warning seems very plausible. Throughout this event, the coldest 
temperatures will be in northern Iowa. Tuesday morning, wind chill
values in northern Iowa will drop below -30 degrees and may not 
recover to above -30 until Thursday afternoon... potentially 50 
consecutive hours with wind chill values below -30 degrees.

Wind chill values and air temperatures for this event will be the 
coldest on Wednesday morning. Near-record cold air temperatures are 
expected, as values look to bottom out in the -15 to -30 degree 
range. Factoring the increased wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph, wind 
chill values on Wednesday morning may now be in the -30 to -40 
degree range across central Iowa, including the Des Moines metro. In 
northern Iowa, with air temperatures nearing the -30 degree range, 
wind chill values will likely bottom out in the -45 to -55 degree 
range.

Have issued a Wind Chill Watch for Highway 20 and north, beginning 
Tuesday morning. The intent here is to message that wind chill 
values will likely reach Wind Chill Warning criteria of -30 to -40 
degrees by Tuesday morning... and continue through the school hours 
Tuesday afternoon and the rest of the week. As mentioned above, am 
expecting the entire DMX CWA to be at Wind Chill Warning Criteria by 
Wednesday morning, so will be expanding upon these headlines in the 
next shift or two. 

Impacts: 
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LIFE-THREATENING COLD AIR!!! This is
the coldest air many of us will have ever experienced. With wind 
chill values exceeding -40 degrees frostbite can occur within 10 
to 15 minutes. The prolonged nature of this event, with the cold 
air lasting several mornings and days, will amplify the dangerous 
impacts. 

Across northern Iowa, air temperatures will likely be (well) below -
10 degrees Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings... 
potentially putting school closures on the table as buses may 
struggle to start. 

Across central Iowa, including the Des Moines metro, air 
temperatures will likely be near to below -15 degrees Wednesday and 
Thursday mornings, putting school closure on the table for those 
days. With wind chills in the -20 to -30 degree range, frostbite can 
occur within 30 minutes.

Call to Action: 
AGAIN, THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LIFE-THREATENING COLD AIR!!!
PREPARE NOW!!! Make sure your heating system, pipes, etc. are as
well-prepared as possible. It may be wise to stock up on groceries
between now and Monday evening so outdoor time is minimized. Keep
in mind expected snow tonight. If you or your family needs to be
outside from Tuesday through Friday, make sure efforts are taken
to cover any exposed skin, especially on Wednesday. Plan for the
potential for school closures on at least Wendesday and possibly
other days of the week depending on location. Monitor the latest
forecast updates. Again, PREPARE NOW for this cold air!!!

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning/
Issued at 558 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

The primary concern will be ceiling and visibility trends due to
wintry precipitation, mainly snow and blowing snow, later today
into early Monday. Currently VFR ceilings are moving across IA 
with at least MVFR conditions expected to increase as the 
precipitation develops. IFR conditions are anticipated north with 
the more significant snow and blowing snow. Farther south the 
precipitation may briefly switch to light rain before ending. 
Strong winds aloft ahead of the approaching low pressure system 
may also produce a period of LLWS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST 
Monday for IAZ004-005-015-023>025-035>038-048>050.

Wind Chill Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning 
for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Monday 
for IAZ006-007-016-017-026>028-039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Kotenberg
AVIATION...Small

from Duluth, MN: https://twitter.com/iembot_dlh

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
936 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

...LOW TEMPERATURE AND LOWEST WINDCHILLS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...

...LOWEST TEMPERTURE REPORTS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...

Location                     Temp      Time/Date       Lat/Lon              
Kabetogama General Store     -49 F     0700 AM 01/27   48.41N/93.05W        
5 NW Ash Lake                -48 F     0745 AM 01/27   48.29N/92.97W        
Babbitt                      -46 F     0700 AM 01/27   47.71N/91.95W        
5 E Seagull Lake             -46 F     0804 AM 01/27   48.12N/90.84W        
Celina 2E                    -46 F     0830 AM 01/27   47.87N/93.03W        
Brimson 2s                   -45 F     0745 AM 01/27   47.25N/91.86W        
Embarrass                    -45 F     0800 AM 01/27   47.66N/92.20W        
International Falls          -45 F     0738 AM 01/27   48.57N/93.40W        
Crane Lake Airport           -44 F     0755 AM 01/27   48.26N/92.47W        
2 NNW Cotton                 -44 F     0800 AM 01/27   47.21N/92.49W        
7 E Effie                    -43 F     0545 AM 01/27   47.84N/93.49W        
3E Orr                       -42 F     0600 AM 01/27   48.06N/92.75W        
1 E Birchdale                -42 F     0615 AM 01/27   48.63N/94.07W        
3 N Butternut                -41 F     0600 AM 01/27   46.05N/90.53W        
5 S Ely                      -41 F     0804 AM 01/27   47.83N/91.84W        
Gunflint Lake                -41 F     0700 AM 01/27   48.17N/90.89W        
3 SW Orr                     -41 F     0808 AM 01/27   48.02N/92.85W        
Skibo RAWS                   -41 F     0822 AM 01/27   47.49N/91.99W        
2 NNE Bigfork                -40 F     0607 AM 01/27   47.78N/93.65W        
Littlefork                   -40 F     0830 AM 01/27   48.40N/93.55W        
Littlefork RAWS              -40 F     0808 AM 01/27   48.39N/93.56W        
3 ENE Margie                 -40 F     0435 AM 01/27   48.13N/93.88W        
S. Fork Kawishiwi River      -40 F     0830 AM 01/27   47.84N/91.70W        
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport     -39 F     0753 AM 01/27   47.39N/92.84W        
5 E Hibbing                  -39 F     0707 AM 01/27   47.39N/92.83W        
Loman                        -39 F     0600 AM 01/27   48.51N/93.80W        
3 WNW Twig                   -39 F     0715 AM 01/27   46.92N/92.41W        
Cook                         -38 F     0415 AM 01/27   47.82N/92.69W        
Makinen                      -38 F     0515 AM 01/27   47.36N/92.36W        
Eveleth-Virginia Airport     -38 F     0635 AM 01/27   47.42N/92.50W        
6 NNW Ash Lake               -38 F     0600 AM 01/27   48.29N/92.97W        
Orr                          -38 F     0653 AM 01/27   48.02N/92.87W        
1 SSW Jacobson               -37 F     0615 AM 01/27   46.98N/93.27W        
Cook                         -36 F     0600 AM 01/27   47.85N/92.69W        
Cass Lake DNR                -35 F     0601 AM 01/27   47.38N/94.61W        
Aurora                       -35 F     0800 AM 01/27   47.52N/92.24W        
Bigfork                      -35 F     0323 AM 01/27   47.78N/93.65W        
1 S Hill City                -35 F     0807 AM 01/27   46.96N/93.60W        
Northome RWIS                -35 F     0520 AM 01/27   47.60N/94.13W        
Longville Airport            -35 F     0803 AM 01/27   46.99N/94.20W        
3 WSW Inger                  -34 F     0504 AM 01/27   47.54N/94.05W        
1 E Birchdale                -34 F     0400 AM 01/27   48.63N/94.07W        
3 E Wright                   -34 F     0600 AM 01/27   46.68N/92.95W        
Aitkin Airport               -33 F     0435 AM 01/27   46.55N/93.68W        
Grand Marais Airport         -33 F     0756 AM 01/27   47.75N/90.34W        
Grand Rapids Airport         -33 F     0556 AM 01/27   47.22N/93.52W        
1 W Isabella                 -33 F     0804 AM 01/27   47.62N/91.38W        
Kettle River                 -33 F     0600 AM 01/27   46.48N/92.89W        
4 S Emily                    -33 F     0745 AM 01/27   46.69N/93.95W        
2 W Schley                   -33 F     0500 AM 01/27   47.37N/94.48W        
7 WNW Minong                 -33 F     0803 AM 01/27   46.14N/91.98W        
Pine River Airport           -33 F     0756 AM 01/27   46.73N/94.38W        
1 SW Saginaw                 -33 F     0708 AM 01/27   46.84N/92.46W        
2 NE Jenkins                 -32 F     0723 AM 01/27   46.68N/94.29W        
9 ENE Deer River             -32 F     0545 AM 01/27   47.40N/93.62W        
5 NW Hovland                 -32 F     0800 AM 01/27   47.90N/90.06W        
4 NE Grand Portage           -32 F     0500 AM 01/27   48.01N/89.62W        
2 S Chisholm                 -32 F     0800 AM 01/27   47.45N/92.89W        
Rice Lake N.W.R.             -32 F     0552 AM 01/27   46.54N/93.29W        
Walker Airport               -32 F     0615 AM 01/27   47.16N/94.65W        
Silver Bay                   -31 F     0356 AM 01/27   47.25N/91.42W        
Northome                     -31 F     0801 AM 01/27   47.88N/94.25W        
6 WSW Beaver Bay             -31 F     0315 AM 01/27   47.20N/91.40W        
5 WNW Scotts Corner          -31 F     0705 AM 01/27   46.63N/92.53W        
3 W Clam Lake                -30 F     0813 AM 01/27   46.17N/90.98W        
Brainerd Airport             -30 F     0753 AM 01/27   46.40N/94.13W        
3 E Namekagon                -30 F     0802 AM 01/27   46.20N/90.97W        
4 SSE South Range            -30 F     0830 AM 01/27   46.55N/91.95W        
Federal Dam 3 WNW            -30 F     0800 AM 01/27   47.25N/94.22W        
Fernberg RAWS                -30 F     0713 AM 01/27   47.95N/91.50W        
16 E Buyck                   -30 F     0804 AM 01/27   48.12N/92.16W        
2 SW Moose Lake              -30 F     0808 AM 01/27   46.42N/92.80W        
2 ENE Oliver                 -30 F     0800 AM 01/27   46.68N/92.15W        
Side Lake                    -30 F     0800 AM 01/27   47.68N/93.01W        
3 NNE Hermantown             -29 F     0715 AM 01/27   46.86N/92.22W        
2 W Woodrow                  -29 F     0706 AM 01/27   46.40N/94.13W        
Brainerd                     -29 F     0700 AM 01/27   46.34N/94.21W        
Barnes                       -29 F     0806 AM 01/27   46.40N/91.50W        
Cloquet Airport              -29 F     0755 AM 01/27   46.70N/92.50W        
2 W Mission                  -29 F     0806 AM 01/27   46.59N/94.10W        
4 W Grand Portage            -29 F     0544 AM 01/27   47.95N/89.78W        
Moose Lake Airport           -29 F     0735 AM 01/27   46.42N/92.81W        
Bruno                        -29 F     0645 AM 01/27   46.28N/92.66W        
Sturgeon Lake                -29 F     0750 AM 01/27   46.38N/92.83W        
2 N Sawyer                   -28 F     0611 AM 01/27   46.71N/92.63W        
4 W Clam Lake                -28 F     0650 AM 01/27   46.17N/90.98W        
5 SE Breezy Point            -28 F     0813 AM 01/27   46.55N/94.17W        
2 WNW Palmers                -28 F     0804 AM 01/27   46.94N/91.90W                
Dads Corner                  -28 F     0730 AM 01/27   46.34N/93.26W        
6 ESE Cloverdale             -28 F     0615 AM 01/27   45.97N/92.62W        
1 SW Breezy Point            -27 F     0812 AM 01/27   46.58N/94.24W                
Bay Of Grand Marais          -27 F     0556 AM 01/27   47.75N/90.34W        
Grand Portage RWIS           -27 F     0800 AM 01/27   47.98N/89.68W        
1 WSW Virginia               -27 F     0820 AM 01/27   47.51N/92.53W        
Two Harbors                  -27 F     0755 AM 01/27   47.05N/91.75W        
1 ESE Esko                   -26 F     0815 AM 01/27   46.70N/92.34W        
Grand Portage                -26 F     0702 AM 01/27   47.97N/89.69W        
Hayward RAWS                 -26 F     0803 AM 01/27   46.02N/91.45W        
McGregor Airport             -26 F     0756 AM 01/27   46.62N/93.31W        
3 NE Randall                 -26 F     0706 AM 01/27   45.74N/92.80W        
3 WNW Askov                  -26 F     0713 AM 01/27   46.21N/92.84W        
1 NNW Cloquet                -25 F     0749 AM 01/27   46.73N/92.46W        
Duluth NWS                   -25 F     0600 AM 01/27   46.84N/92.21W        
2 WNW Duluth                 -25 F     0820 AM 01/27   46.79N/92.16W        
1 SE Moose Lake              -25 F     1200 AM 01/27   46.45N/92.76W        
Siren                        -25 F     0655 AM 01/27   45.82N/92.37W        
Scanlon                      -25 F     0800 AM 01/27   46.70N/92.42W        
Superior Airport             -25 F     0755 AM 01/27   46.69N/92.09W        
Hinckley Airport             -24 F     0555 AM 01/27   46.02N/92.89W        
Grand Marais                 -24 F     0506 AM 01/27   47.75N/90.34W        
Hayward Airport              -24 F     0753 AM 01/27   46.03N/91.44W        
2 SW Proctor                 -24 F     0810 AM 01/27   46.72N/92.25W        
6 W Sandstone                -24 F     0600 AM 01/27   46.11N/92.99W        
3 ENE South Range            -23 F     0815 AM 01/27   46.64N/91.92W        
Glidden                      -23 F     0734 AM 01/27   46.13N/90.58W        
4 NW Winter                  -22 F     0830 AM 01/27   45.87N/91.07W        
Duluth Airport               -22 F     0755 AM 01/27   46.84N/92.21W        
1 WSW Maple                  -21 F     0646 AM 01/27   46.58N/91.75W        
2 WSW Castle Danger          -21 F     0810 AM 01/27   47.09N/91.55W        
Washburn RAWS                -21 F     0702 AM 01/27   46.64N/91.20W        
2 NE Duluth                  -20 F     0825 AM 01/27   46.81N/92.08W        
Walker                       -20 F     0801 AM 01/27   47.09N/94.58W        
2 SSW Hinckley               -20 F     0815 AM 01/27   45.99N/92.95W        
3 NW Superior                -20 F     0745 AM 01/27   46.73N/92.10W        
2 ENE Duluth                 -19 F     0801 AM 01/27   46.80N/92.07W        
Blatnik Bridge               -19 F     0836 AM 01/27   46.75N/92.10W        
Phillips                     -19 F     0755 AM 01/27   45.71N/90.42W        
Ashland Airport              -18 F     0753 AM 01/27   46.55N/90.92W        
Sky Harbor Airport           -18 F     0815 AM 01/27   46.72N/92.04W        
Duluth RWIS                  -18 F     0815 AM 01/27   46.77N/92.11W        
4 ENE Two Harbors            -18 F     0531 AM 01/27   47.07N/91.59W        
5 WSW Spirit                 -17 F     0746 AM 01/27   45.40N/90.20W        
1 W Bayfield                 -16 F     0847 AM 01/27   46.81N/90.85W        
Ashland                      -16 F     0700 AM 01/27   46.58N/90.88W        
1 E Duluth                   -16 F     0818 AM 01/27   46.78N/92.09W        
Madeline Island              -16 F     0835 AM 01/27   46.78N/90.77W                
6 SSW Springstead            -15 F     0847 AM 01/27   45.93N/90.18W        
2 E Superior                 -15 F     0700 AM 01/27   46.71N/92.01W        
Ashland                      -14 F     0808 AM 01/27   46.58N/90.88W        
1 ENE La Pointe              -14 F     0815 AM 01/27   46.79N/90.76W        
Bayfield                     -13 F     0815 AM 01/27   46.81N/90.81W        
Ashland                      -13 F     0815 AM 01/27   46.58N/90.88W        
1 E Odanah                   -12 F     0731 AM 01/27   46.60N/90.66W        
Bayfield 9N                  -11 F     0700 AM 01/27   46.94N/90.83W        
2 SE Bayfield                -10 F     0815 AM 01/27   46.78N/90.79W        
Devils Island                 -9 F     0700 AM 01/27   47.08N/90.73W 


&&

...LOWEST WIND CHILL REPORTS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...

Location                     Temp      Time/Date       Lat/Lon              
Grand Marais Airport         -57 F     0756 AM 01/27   47.75N/90.34W        
International Falls          -54 F     0826 AM 01/27   48.57N/93.40W        
Bay Of Grand Marais          -51 F     0756 AM 01/27   47.75N/90.34W        
1 E Birchdale                -49 F     0835 AM 01/27   48.63N/94.07W        
Eveleth-Virginia Airport     -48 F     0356 AM 01/27   47.42N/92.50W        
Cloquet Airport              -46 F     0615 AM 01/27   46.70N/92.50W        
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport     -46 F     1253 AM 01/27   47.39N/92.84W        
5 E Seagull Lake             -46 F     0804 AM 01/27   48.12N/90.84W        
Walker Airport               -46 F     0355 AM 01/27   47.16N/94.65W        
Fernberg RAWS                -45 F     0613 AM 01/27   47.95N/91.50W        
4 W Grand Portage            -45 F     0744 AM 01/27   47.95N/89.78W        
2 NNW Cotton                 -45 F     1215 AM 01/27   47.21N/92.49W        
3 ENE Margie                 -45 F     1235 AM 01/27   48.13N/93.88W        
2 WNW Palmers                -43 F     0544 AM 01/27   46.94N/91.90W        
Grand Portage RWIS           -43 F     0820 AM 01/27   47.98N/89.68W        
5 NW Ash Lake                -43 F     0845 AM 01/27   48.29N/92.97W        
Crane Lake Airport           -42 F     0828 AM 01/27   48.26N/92.47W        
5 S Ely                      -42 F     0104 AM 01/27   47.83N/91.84W        
7 E Effie                    -42 F     0735 AM 01/27   47.84N/93.49W        
Superior Airport             -42 F     0755 AM 01/27   46.69N/92.09W        
3 NNE Hermantown             -41 F     0816 AM 01/27   46.86N/92.22W        
Duluth Airport               -41 F     0755 AM 01/27   46.84N/92.21W        
3 SW Orr                     -41 F     0808 AM 01/27   48.02N/92.85W        
Skibo RAWS                   -41 F     0822 AM 01/27   47.49N/91.99W        
2 NNE Bigfork                -40 F     0607 AM 01/27   47.78N/93.65W        
Littlefork RAWS              -40 F     0808 AM 01/27   48.39N/93.56W        
Two Harbors                  -40 F     0455 AM 01/27   47.05N/91.75W        
Silver Bay                   -39 F     0635 AM 01/27   47.25N/91.42W        
5 E Hibbing                  -39 F     0707 AM 01/27   47.39N/92.83W        
6 WSW Beaver Bay             -39 F     0635 AM 01/27   47.20N/91.40W        
Blatnik Bridge               -39 F     0401 AM 01/27   46.75N/92.10W        
3 WNW Twig                   -39 F     0715 AM 01/27   46.92N/92.41W        
Cook                         -38 F     0435 AM 01/27   47.82N/92.69W        
Makinen                      -38 F     0515 AM 01/27   47.36N/92.36W        
Orr                          -38 F     0653 AM 01/27   48.02N/92.87W        
1 SSW Jacobson               -37 F     0615 AM 01/27   46.98N/93.27W        
Grand Rapids Airport         -36 F     0156 AM 01/27   47.22N/93.52W        
1 W Isabella                 -36 F     1204 AM 01/27   47.62N/91.38W        
Ashland Airport              -35 F     0753 AM 01/27   46.55N/90.92W        
Cass Lake DNR                -35 F     0601 AM 01/27   47.38N/94.61W        
1 NNW Cloquet                -35 F     0749 AM 01/27   46.73N/92.46W        
Aurora                       -35 F     0800 AM 01/27   47.52N/92.24W        
Bigfork                      -35 F     0323 AM 01/27   47.78N/93.65W        
1 S Hill City                -35 F     0807 AM 01/27   46.96N/93.60W        
Northome RWIS                -35 F     0520 AM 01/27   47.60N/94.13W        
2 WNW Duluth                 -35 F     0640 AM 01/27   46.79N/92.16W        
Longville Airport            -35 F     0803 AM 01/27   46.99N/94.20W        
3 WSW Inger                  -34 F     0504 AM 01/27   47.54N/94.05W        
McGregor Airport             -34 F     0415 AM 01/27   46.62N/93.31W        
Aitkin Airport               -33 F     0435 AM 01/27   46.55N/93.68W        
Devils Island                -33 F     0700 AM 01/27   47.08N/90.73W        
1 E Duluth                   -33 F     0342 AM 01/27   46.78N/92.09W        
4 S Emily                    -33 F     0745 AM 01/27   46.69N/93.95W        
2 W Schley                   -33 F     0500 AM 01/27   47.37N/94.48W        
2 SW Proctor                 -33 F     0840 AM 01/27   46.72N/92.25W        
2 WSW Castle Danger          -33 F     0740 AM 01/27   47.09N/91.55W        
2 S Chisholm                 -33 F     0215 AM 01/27   47.45N/92.89W        
7 WNW Minong                 -33 F     0803 AM 01/27   46.14N/91.98W        
Pine River Airport           -33 F     0756 AM 01/27   46.73N/94.38W        
Siren                        -33 F     0215 AM 01/27   45.82N/92.37W        
1 SW Saginaw                 -33 F     0708 AM 01/27   46.84N/92.46W        
2 NE Jenkins                 -32 F     0723 AM 01/27   46.68N/94.29W        
9 ENE Deer River             -32 F     0545 AM 01/27   47.40N/93.62W        
Grand Portage                -32 F     0916 AM 01/27   47.97N/89.69W        
5 NW Hovland                 -32 F     0800 AM 01/27   47.90N/90.06W        
Duluth RWIS                  -32 F     0635 AM 01/27   46.77N/92.11W        
Rice Lake N.W.R.             -32 F     0552 AM 01/27   46.54N/93.29W        
Northome                     -31 F     0801 AM 01/27   47.88N/94.25W        
3 NW Superior                -31 F     0836 AM 01/27   46.73N/92.10W        
2 ENE Oliver                 -31 F     0830 AM 01/27   46.68N/92.15W        
Side Lake                    -31 F     0900 AM 01/27   47.68N/93.01W        
Washburn RAWS                -31 F     0702 AM 01/27   46.64N/91.20W        
3 W Clam Lake                -30 F     0813 AM 01/27   46.17N/90.98W        
Brainerd Airport             -30 F     0753 AM 01/27   46.40N/94.13W        
3 E Namekagon                -30 F     0802 AM 01/27   46.20N/90.97W        
4 SSE South Range            -30 F     0830 AM 01/27   46.55N/91.95W        
Glidden RAWS                 -30 F     0700 AM 01/26   46.14N/90.59W        
16 E Buyck                   -30 F     0804 AM 01/27   48.12N/92.16W        
2 SW Moose Lake              -30 F     0808 AM 01/27   46.42N/92.80W        
Phillips                     -30 F     0615 AM 01/27   45.71N/90.42W        
2 W Woodrow                  -29 F     0706 AM 01/27   46.40N/94.13W        
Barnes                       -29 F     0806 AM 01/27   46.40N/91.50W        
2 W Mission                  -29 F     0806 AM 01/27   46.59N/94.10W        
Moose Lake Airport           -29 F     0735 AM 01/27   46.42N/92.81W        
Bruno                        -29 F     0645 AM 01/27   46.28N/92.66W        
Sturgeon Lake                -29 F     0750 AM 01/27   46.38N/92.83W        
2 N Sawyer                   -28 F     0611 AM 01/27   46.71N/92.63W        
5 SE Breezy Point            -28 F     0813 AM 01/27   46.55N/94.17W        
2 SE Bayfield                -28 F     0915 AM 01/26   46.78N/90.79W        
Dads Corner                  -28 F     0730 AM 01/27   46.34N/93.26W        
6 ESE Cloverdale             -28 F     0615 AM 01/27   45.97N/92.62W        
1 SW Breezy Point            -27 F     0812 AM 01/27   46.58N/94.24W        
1 WSW Saginaw                -27 F     1030 PM 01/25   46.85N/92.47W        
Hinckley Airport             -26 F     0236 AM 01/27   46.02N/92.89W        
5 WSW Spirit                 -26 F     0400 AM 01/27   45.40N/90.20W        
3 ENE South Range            -26 F     1215 AM 01/27   46.64N/91.92W        
Walker                       -26 F     0146 AM 01/27   47.09N/94.58W        
1 ESE Esko                   -26 F     0815 AM 01/27   46.70N/92.34W        
Glidden                      -26 F     0529 AM 01/27   46.13N/90.58W        
Hayward RAWS                 -26 F     0803 AM 01/27   46.02N/91.45W        
3 NE Randall                 -26 F     0706 AM 01/27   45.74N/92.80W        
1 E Odanah                   -25 F     0800 AM 01/27   46.60N/90.66W        
1 W Bayfield                 -25 F     0551 AM 01/27   46.81N/90.85W        
1 WSW Maple                  -24 F     1216 AM 01/27   46.58N/91.75W        
Hayward Airport              -24 F     0753 AM 01/27   46.03N/91.44W        
1 ENE La Pointe              -24 F     0635 AM 01/27   46.79N/90.76W        
Bayfield                     -23 F     0901 AM 01/26   46.81N/90.81W        
4 NW Winter                  -22 F     0830 AM 01/27   45.87N/91.07W        
1 E Odanah                   -22 F     0716 AM 01/27   46.60N/90.66W        
2 NE Duluth                  -20 F     0825 AM 01/27   46.81N/92.08W        
2 ENE Duluth                 -19 F     0801 AM 01/27   46.80N/92.07W        
4 ENE Two Harbors            -18 F     0531 AM 01/27   47.07N/91.59W        
Ashland                      -15 F     0155 AM 01/27   46.58N/90.88W        
Ashland                      -13 F     0815 AM 01/27   46.58N/90.88W        

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers 
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

[mckinne63]

I remember some brutal winters when I was a youngster. I grew up in Wisconsin. One year my car engine seized up due to the cold. Had to have it towed. I think temps were close to -60 with the wind chill. Glad I am in Texas now.

[Clipper]

Many times I remember having to defrost our vehicle door locks back in the day. We had to spray (I don't remember what it was) this liquid stuff into the locks.

[Ptarmigan]

International Falls, Minnesota currently -44F. Thankfully we live along the NW Gulf Coast where unexpected rain showers was the extent of a short term forecast bust.

-44F is actually a beautiful sight and feeling if dressed correctly. Everything is perfectly still almost as if the air is pixelated.

It is much warmer in Alaska than is in Minnesota.

[jasons2k]

Today was one fantastic day. It felt great in the sun. I got so much done outside - cleaned the gutters and even washed the windows all along the back and sides of the house.

[Katdaddy]

After a mild day with highs in the upper 60s and high clouds will be followed our next cold front and showers tonight with highs in the 40s tomorrow and a light freeze across inland areas. No Winter precipitation is expected as dry weather arrives behind the front. High temps rise into the 60s by Thursday with increasing rain chances. The first look at next weekend looks mild and wet.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like it will be April (maybe) before my yard dries out enough to do anything with it. Haven't been able to mow since late October.

[stormlover]

prob won't see any frozen stuff but wouldn't surprise me noth of I10 in se tx area could see something.

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A bitter cold arctic air mass will invade the Midwest this week…TX will get a glancing blow from this cold.

Arctic air mass with potentially historic cold temperatures across the upper Midwest (-40 to -50 for lows) will bring a glancing blow to TX. Upper air pattern is favorable for the delivery of bitter cold air into the Great Lakes region with the plains and TX on the extreme W/SW edge of this pool of very cold air. End result will be a strong frontal passage over the region this evening followed by sharply colder temperatures on Tuesday before a prolonged warning trend.

Frontal boundary should reach College Station by early evening, Houston by mid evening, and off the coast around midnight. Lift along the front will be increasing along with moisture pooling likely leading to a band of showers. Bands of showers will continue for a brief period behind the front, but should end prior to temperature profiles becoming favorable for the rain changing to snow. Can’t rule out a very brief window where precipitation and temperatures combine for a few wet flakes of snow over the far NE counties around lake Livingston, but for nearly all of the area the cold and moisture are just out of phase. Strong cold air advection will be in place on Tuesday with clearing skies in the morning. Temperatures will likely only reach to upper 40’s for highs. One would think such a strong cold front would bring a freeze to the region given such a dry post frontal air mass expected, but high level cirrus clouds will work over the region from the Pacific by late Tuesday afternoon and thick overnight and this will help protect much of the area from falling much lower than the lower 30’s.

Winds begin to turn back onshore on Thursday and looking at extended range models…get ready for a sustained warming trend as the amplified upper air pattern of later becomes more flattened and zonal and Pacific air floods the nation. Large arctic high moving off the US east coast late this week will keep a more E to ESE wind over the fairly chilled nearshore waters along the northern Gulf beaches…this is a fairly favorable sea fog setup and expect to see sea fog start to develop by Friday as dewpoints rise over the water temperatures and then likely hold with a coastal sea fog bank into the weekend and even early next week. As moisture increases and a short wave approaches from the west rain chances will increase on Friday and likely peak Friday night into Saturday morning. Air mass actually looks to become slightly unstable with cooling mid level temperatures, so could get some thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning. Currently looking like another .5 to 1.25 inches of rain for much of the area during this time period helping to keep grounds soggy over much of the area.

Storm system should be east of the area by Saturday evening, but no significant cold frontal passage is expected and dewpoints will likely continue to linger in the mid 60’s into early next week which will continue to support sea fog along the coast and inland movement of the sea fog each evening. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s on Sunday and into much of next week.

[wxman57]

prob won't see any frozen stuff but wouldn't surprise me noth of I10 in se tx area could see something.

Looks like the surface temperature well north of I-10 will be in the mid to upper 40s with the freezing level way up at 8000 ft as the precip ends tomorrow morning. Not a good recipe for anything but light rain. If you go north to Lufkin, then there could be a shallow sub-freezing layer 1000 ft up that could produce a few sleet pellets. South of there, though, not much of a chance of sleet.

[jasons2k]

This morning’s email from Jeff was like a belated Christmas Present:
- glancing blow this week, cirrus deck protects us from a hard freeze
- followed by an extended warming period
- blocking pattern becomes more zonal
- even after this weekend’s system, dew points stay in the 60’s and even next week looks warm and mild too

Hallelujah!! Bring on Spring!!!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
529 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Despite relatively thick cirrus across the area, there is some
patchy fog across the area. Looking for that fog to dissipate
later this morning, giving VFR conditions across the area with
strengthening southerly winds. Late tonight, front will sweep
quickly across Southeast Texas bringing rain showers along with
it. Winds will lull and become variable, then turn northwesterly
and strengthen quickly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 414 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019/...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Water vapor imagery shows a weak short wave trough over the Rio
Grande valley which is causing an increase in high cloudiness.
Clear skies earlier in the night has allowed for some fog to
develop and where does, visibility has dropped to below 1 mile.
With high clouds continuing to thicken, fog should remain patchy
so we are not going to issue a dense fog advisory just yet.

The other main story will be the cold front pushing through the
area this evening and tonight. Overall there is not much change in
the thinking with the front. Showers should form along the front
as it moves into the area between College Station and Houston.
Shower activity and post-frontal rain bands develop overnight and
clear the area by Tuesday morning. General timing of the front
based on WRF model runs and other short term guidance has the
front to College Station around 6PM this evening, Houston area
around 9PM and off the coast by midnight. Temperatures fall
rapidly behind the front with 60s in the evening and then 30s by
Tuesday morning sunrise. A few areas from College Station to
Livingston could reach freezing but any precipitation should be
gone by that time. Much drier air will be moving into the region
and will be the main reason why thermal profiles do not support
any frozen precipitation types.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

The main issues for Tuesday and Wednesday will be the cold. High
pressure builds over the area and moves east by Wednesday morning.
A couple of weak vorticity maximums move over the area with no
consequence as a lobe of the polar vortex moves over the Great
Lakes supporting northerly flow aloft over the Plains. Low
temperatures Wednesday morning might be a touch tricky as
southeast winds may increase as temperatures should be at their
lowest. Temperatures dropping below freezing may be limited to
areas where winds can decouple.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Warm air advection starts back up Thursday through the end of the
week as high pressure builds through the Midwest, Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. Pressure gradient will support a more easterly
component to winds and then more southeast to south over the
weekend. This still allows for dewpoints in the 50s/60s to move
inland and this will largely have two impacts on the forecast.

First it will provide moisture for rain chances Friday into
Saturday as a trough approaches from the Pacific. Models are
finally in better agreement with the timing of the upper level
trough but still some subtle differences. A jet streak with this
feature approaches with the left exit region over much of the area
support increased lift. Confidence is higher than it has been so
we increased rain chances during this time. Precipitable water
values get up to 1.3 to 1.5 inches during this time and there may
be enough instability for thunderstorms. There is still some time
to sort out those details. Rainfall amounts look to be in the half
inch to an inch range.

Second the moisture lingers across the area through the weekend
as no real front pushes through with the Friday/Saturday system.
Should Gulf and Bay waters not warm enough, this could be a
favorable set up for sea fog especially Friday into Saturday when
winds have an easterly component. Depending upon water
temperatures, moisture and winds for the weekend and early next
week, there could even be some prolong periods of sea fog. There
is still lots of uncertainty with this scenario but something to
think about with it being fog season. If one believes day 8-10
forecasts, then the next cold front may not be until Feb 6 or
about 8 days after our cold front coming tonight. This means
temperatures for the weekend and early next week will feel more
like spring where temperatures are some 10 or more degrees above
normal.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Winds are light and generally southerly or calm late tonight, but
will increase in strength deeper into today as a cold front
approaches the area. Though showers may start as early as this
evening over the waters, the best chance for rain will be as the
front quickly sweeps across the nearshore Gulf waters around
midnight.

Winds will switch to northwesterly and quickly strengthen after the
front passes. The gale watch is converted to a gale warning, and
moved up an hour due to a slightly faster passage expected than when
the watch was issued last night. The gale warning does include the 0-
20 nm waters, as sustained winds will be on the edge of the gale
threshold towards 20 nm out, and gusts above gale are expected to
carry on across the nearshore waters for much of the night. Indeed,
for a couple hours just before dawn, gale-level gusts may be seen on
the bays, but with sustained winds not expected to rise much above
25 knots there, opted to go with a high-end small craft advisory on
the bays.

Additionally, the strong northwest winds will likely cause low water
issues in at least the upper portions of the bays during times of
low tide, potentially impacting navigation. For now, impacts are
expected to abate after Tuesday, with winds becoming more easterly,
and creating some onshore component.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Behind the strong cold front tonight, look for much drier air to
surge into Southeast Texas. There may be a brief overlap of gusty,
post-frontal winds with very low humidity late in the morning or
towards mid-day, particularly near (but not immediately on) the Gulf
Coast. Impacts would be isolated to fuel beds dominated by fine (1
hr), dormant fuels that react very quickly to changes in relative
humidity. Even 10 hour fuels may not dry out quickly enough to cause
great concern before winds weaken too much. And, across the entire
area, 100-hr and 1000-hr fuels are wetter than normal, eliminating
areas with heavy fuels from any fire weather issues.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 69 32 47 33 53 / 20 60 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 69 34 48 33 54 / 10 70 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 41 48 41 53 / 10 70 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM CST Tuesday for
the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
FIRE WEATHER...Luchs

[CRASHWX]

Double down and just like Black Jack the dealer rolled a 5 card deep 21 on two 20’s

[jasons2k]

What’s the exact timing on the rain this evening? Our first baseball practice of the season is scheduled for 7:30. Trying to figure out if we need to reschedule...

[LightningBolt]

Double down and just like Black Jack the dealer rolled a 5 card deep 21 on two 20’s

It seems that for winter weather lovers, it is a hand of aces and eights!

[mcheer23]

What’s the exact timing on the rain this evening? Our first baseball practice of the season is scheduled for 7:30. Trying to figure out if we need to reschedule...

Starting north of I-10 around 6pm.
South of I-10 around 8pm
Galveston around 9pm