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Well, if there is very cold air that's supposed to come down at the end of the month, and into January, it still hasn't shown up on the GFS. The latter part of each run is completely different and no arctic air..... *sigh*

harp wrote: ↑Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:04 pm Well, if there is very cold air that's supposed to come down at the end of the month, and into January, it still hasn't shown up on the GFS. The latter part of each run is completely different and no arctic air..... *sigh*

FV3 GFS has chilly air and the indices point toward a below normal time period. The old GFS can’t make up its mind between chilly or seasonal.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected during the early morning hours ahead of the upper level low. A few of the storms could become severe across along and E of I-45. Some brief heavy rain will also be possible but the storm motion will be rapid. The strong winds will be the highlight beginning tomorrow afternoon into Friday. Wind Advisories in effect for all but NE portions of SE TX with Gale Warnings for the coastal waters. Winds gusting 30-40MPH inland and possible up to 50MPH over the coastal waters. Again make sure your Christmas decorations are anchored. I would not like to see Snoopy blowing over the house but the Grinch maybe.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
855 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Showers with embedded thunderstorms are still expected to develop
by midnight and especially during the overnight hours and then spread
eastward through or shortly after sunrise. Overall strong/severe
threat looks to be on the low side (see SPC`s 654 PM Day 1 Convective
Outlook for more details). Current POP configuration looks to be
mostly on track. Cold front will move through the area during the
day tomorrow with increasing winds developing in its wake as the
pressure gradient tightens (Wind Advisory and Gale Warning will go
into effect tomorrow afternoon).

Latest HRRR has some pretty good storms coming through overnight. Some areas could easily pick up another inch of rain.

That HRRR is looking too slow.

Rain and thunderstorms E of I-45 moving away from the Houston-Galveston areas and into SW LA this morning. The front will move across SE TX this afternoon bringing strong gusty winds this evening and overnight especially along the coastal areas. The weekend weather is looking very nice with mostly sunny skies and highs the upper 50s and 60s and lows in the 40s.

I'm going on record to say that this will be the most mundane/boring winter in many years. This will make colder weather haters happy.....lol

snowman65 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:48 am I'm going on record to say that this will be the most mundane/boring winter in many years. This will make colder weather haters happy.....lol

You’ll be wrong. There’s nothing that suggests that in the long range pattern or weeklies.

And you clearly don’t remember 2015 and 2016 Winters which were terrible. 2008-2014 Winters were great for the most part.. I think this Winter will compare to 2009 and 2013 mainly because of the warm waters in NPac and help from a Weak to moderate Nino.

Sustained wind reports in the 40s in the panhandle - highest reported here at the moment is 48 mph in Happy, TX, south of Amarillo

WPC's Local Storm Reports: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr ... autoreload
Amarillo weather conditions: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.p ... AMA&num=24
ZFW-Fort Worth ARTCC: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw

I got 1.99” overnight. It was just starting to feel pleasant again so I could do without today’s cold front. At least there are no freezes in the 7-day forecast.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA will exit area TAF sites between 12-13z but additional
showers are possible through the morning but will only carry
vicinity for these. The surface low over the panhandle will be
slow to move east today and the gradient doesn`t really tighten
until tonight. Winds will be slow to increase today so pared back
wind/wind gusts until this evening. Fcst soundings show some
improvement in ceilings this afternoon before ceilings return
tonight as a strong upper level low sinks SE into the area. Could
be some patchy light rain early Friday morning as the low spins
over the region. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...

NEAR/SHORT TERM [Now through Friday]...

No major changes have been made to the previous near/short term
forecast, as it continues on track with most of the rain activity
occuring now through around 12Z this morning. HiRes precip models
are finally concurrent with the current weather progression as
well.

By around 07Z, a line of showers started to roll into the west
southwest portions of the CWA. It rapidly expanded further north
and south as the line became more organized and showers
intensified with embedded thunderstorms. Currently, most of the
CWA is being affected by showers and scattered
thunderstorms...starting to clear out on the western
counties...but no severe storms have been spotted as of this
moment. These showers and thunderstorms have been moving eastward
rapidly, thus, maximum rainfall accumulations should remain below
3.00 inches for this morning. A station located Grogans Point Rd
near Red Sable Point (slightly west of I45) reported 2.80 inches
by 1030Z. Most of the local observations by this time reported
accumulations of around 0.50 to around 2.00 inches of rain and it
continues to rain, so we will be seeing higher numbers later on
this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across the central and eastern portions of the CWA in the next few
hours as low level temperature and moisture advection interacts
with lifting ahead of the shortwave trough.

06Z surface analysis indicated an upper level low with associated
cold front over N TX moving towards central TX. The low is
expected to move into the northern/central portions of the
forecast area after 12Z and close off while it moves across and
exit into western LA by Friday evening/night. Through 12Z Friday,
a marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall continues mainly for the
eastern half of the forecast area. There is also a marginal threat
for severe weather for these areas as the combinations of
sufficient diurnal heating along with effective bulk shear of up
to around 40 KTS, strong mid to upper level jet and CAPE values of
1000 J/kg can result in some isolated strong/severe storms with a
hail threat - a brief tornado cannot be ruled out either. Once the
cold front moves across, drier air will limit any shower
activity.

Pressure gradient is expected to tighten across SE TX, but model
guidance now has lower values than yesterday. Thus, sustained
winds inland are not as high as last night. A Wind Advisory will
go into effect from 2 PM CST this afternoon and continue through
Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM...[Friday night through Wednesday]...

Winds will gradually decrease inland Friday night through the
weekend and temperatures will slightly increase. Tranquil weather
conditions should prevail over the weekend and early next week. A
slight increase in POPs is shown on Wednesday, as model guidance
indicates the presence of an upper level trough. However, this is
at the end of the forecast period and changes to the
guidance/grids will most likely occur in the next couple of days.

MARINE...

A strong onshore flow will prevail this morning as low pressure over
the Texas panhandle deepens. Seas have increased to 11 feet at bouy
19 and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for this morning. The low
will move slowly across North Texas today toward the Arklatex by
evening. A tight pressure gradient on the southwest side of the low
will bring strong west winds into the coastal waters later this
afternoon. Winds will increase to around 30 knots by this afternoon
and A Gale Warning will be in effect. The stronger winds will affect
mainly Matagorda Bay and the western waters with lighter winds over
Galveston Bay and the eastern waters. Not sure the bays will reach
Gale criteria but will leave them in the warning for now. The strong
winds will persist overnight and into Friday as the low meanders
over the Arklatex through Friday morning. The low finally moves east
on Saturday and winds will begin to relax on Saturday afternoon with
a light offshore flow through late Sunday. An onshore flow will
return on Monday.

Will hold off on the Low Water Advisory for now as the west winds
don`t kick in until late today. Water levels are progged not to fall
until Friday night into Saturday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 42 49 39 59 / 20 40 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 72 44 52 42 59 / 50 10 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 46 52 45 57 / 60 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Friday for
the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...
Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

GM...Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Friday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 2 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...24
Aviation/Marine...43

The long awaited compact bowling ball upper low is currently SSW of Lubbock and deepening rather quickly. The small upper low will continue to organize and become vertically stacked throughout all levels of the atmosphere as it heads generally SE toward SE Texas. This is an unusually strong and deep system that we rarely see this far South. Dynamic will be very strong and within the coma head N and W of the so called "center", strong lift may allow storms to form with possibly some rumbles of thunder. Very strong winds are currently blowing in the Lubbock area with gusts near 60 MPH and blowing snow.

What Steve is alluding to..wow...just wow...

When will it arrive in SETX?

sambucol wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:06 am When will it arrive in SETX?

Likely early tomorrow morning.

Midland reporting snow and some mixture of rain/snow as well at this time. The area of wintry precipitation appears to be right below that strong Upper Low, so expected locations that are in the track of the upper air storm to have the 'best shot' of seeing any wintry mischief.

GOES-17 Meso-2 is currently over TX

Mesoscale Discussion 1706
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

Areas affected...extreme southeast NM into west TX

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 131649Z - 132015Z

SUMMARY...An area of mainly light to moderate snow with heavier snow
bursts mixed in will affect portions of extreme southeast NM into
west TX the next few hours. Combined with strong northwesterly
winds, visibility may become greatly reduced at times.

DISCUSSION...Cold temperatures are quickly filtering southward into
the southern High Plains behind a cold frontal passage. Rain has
turned to snow in several locations from HOB in southeast NM to the
Midland-Odessa vicinity in west TX. A very strong surface pressure
gradient across the region is resulting into sustained winds around
25 mph with higher gusts. Recently, ODO reported heavy snow with MAF
and MDD reporting light to moderate snow with lowered visibility to
around 2-3 miles. While snow rates may briefly be heavy, combined
with strong winds, visibility will remain lowered and could change
quickly over short distances.

The area of precipitation will continue to track eastward into the
afternoon and may change to a mix of rain/snow or all rain further
east across central TX where temperatures may be slower fall to near
freezing until later in the afternoon or early evening.

..Leitman.. 12/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

kind of puts the winds over TX today into perspective !

https://twitter.com/NWSBrownsville/stat ... 2562788352

Fun fact: Our office has only issued 4 'High Wind Warnings' over the past 30 years, including today's. Our last 'High Wind Warning' was issued February 25, 2013 for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and Brooks Counties. #funfact #txwx #NWSBrownsville