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Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:04 am
by don
The Euro for the last couple of days has been moving a cold core low from north Texas to southeast Texas late Thursday/Friday with wrap around moisture, the problem is surface temps look too warm for snow at the time, but something to watch. Saying that, if the Euro's scenario were to transpire i would think the upper levels would be cold enough to produce at least a rain/sleet mix even with surface temps in the 40's as we've seen a few times in the past. The national weather service mentioned it in their discussion this morning.
Will need to keep an eye on the ECMWF
solution for this Wed-Fri time period as it suggests the potential
for some snow in TX with a more southerly low pressure system. As
it is the outlier at the moment have left it to wander down it`s
own path.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

Image

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:20 am
by srainhoutx
Light frost across NW Harris County this morning. I see Cleveland dropped to 32F. Don, the Euro solution has been showing up a couple day off and on. While it may be an outlier, a Modoki El Nino does support a more southerly storm track and perhaps its a harbinger of things to come as we get deeper into Winter. I continue to see an active weather pattern ahead during the "moderation period" the next couple of weeks. I still see indications of a major pattern change around the Christmas Holiday period into the New Years Eve timeframe.

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:29 am
by CRASHWX
Global pattern pointing to changes around Christmas

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:29 am
by CRASHWX
Joe Bastardi just said Artic Air will overwhelm the pattern by day 16...massive thunderstorms in the Indian Ocean and sinking air over Asia will trigger is and will continue to trigger a stratta warm event over Siberia which will transfer over over the Artic and opens the Arctic he compares to 1966....I guess we will see

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:39 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
The beautiful thing about this El Nino pattern is the next two weeks leading up to the colder pattern change is very seasonal. We don't see 70s the next two weeks and won't have warm, humid weather.

This is how the Fall and Winter should be. Moderate and cold, moderate and cold.

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:52 am
by jasons2k
I would love some 70's. Feels great, no matter what month or season it is.

At least the sun is out today - I can resume running again but it will have to be after work. Too cold in the morning for me - I don't like running in the 30's. 45-50F is about my cutoff.

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:02 am
by srainhoutx
Compact upper low Thursday into Friday has trended much deeper and more phased with a Northern stream shortwave. The 12Z NAM and GFS took steps toward the European model solution last night. Still too warm at the surface for any potential wintry mischief other than possibly a sleet pellet or two with wrap around moisture, but it does appear to be a very windy storm system.

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:52 am
by Cpv17
We might need to watch next Wednesday for another significant rain event.

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:48 pm
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 101726
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1126 AM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

.AVIATION...
Not a lot of issues with the 18Z TAFS as VFR conditions prevail.
This looks to be mainly a wind shift forecast as the N/NW winds
this afternoon become more S/SE by Tues morning/afternoon. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CST Mon Dec 10 2018/

Weather conditions today are relatively quiet with high pressure
over central Texas that should move over the area tonight. High
temperatures in the 50s look on track. The only forecast
adjustments were for ongoing T/Td trends which were still pretty
much on track. Next chance of rain looks to be Wednesday night
into Thursday.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 36 60 47 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 55 37 60 49 67 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 55 47 60 56 67 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:12 pm
by Andrew
Also going to have to keep an eye on gusty winds Thursday evening into the overnight hours. Some of the models are showing 50-60mph winds possible across the panhandle into central Texas behind the low pressure. A gale warning will also be possible during that same time period. As for Christmas it is too far out to really say right now. Models are all over the place but have been showing some cold air pooling in central and western Canada, so something to watch.

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:46 am
by Katdaddy
Temps mostly in the 30s across SE TX this morning. Expect another nice cool day with some high clouds streaming across the area later this afternoon ahead of the next front and associated low pressure. Rain and thunderstorms increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The SPC has a marginal risk area for severe thunderstorms from the Houston-Galveston areas E and NE into LA. Expect winds to increase behind the front with Wind Advisories likely for portions of SE TX and Gale Warnings along the coast. Strong winds will be widespread across much of TX Thursday into Friday.

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:13 am
by snowman65
christmas.JPG
Christmas day GFS...I know it will change but still fun the share :)

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:20 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
LOCK. IT. IN!

Image


Christmas Day!

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:30 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
snowman65 wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:13 am christmas.JPGChristmas day GFS...I know it will change but still fun the share :)
Hahaha... beat me to the punch.

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:33 am
by snowman65
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:30 am
snowman65 wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:13 am christmas.JPGChristmas day GFS...I know it will change but still fun the share :)
Hahaha... beat me to the punch.
Cool...I never win anything....LOL

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:53 am
by srainhoutx
Moderate frost across NW Harris County this morning with a light freeze to boot. Daytime highs since Saturday have been a good 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal for this time of year. Keep a close eye on our sneaky compact storm system arriving late Wednesday into Friday. The guidance continue to intensify the storm system over Texas and cut it off from the main flow across the Nation. Very windy conditions are likely a may lead to travel troubles across at least the Eastern half of Texas into Louisiana. Nice little Christmas Miracle on those very long range charts! Perhaps everything we have seen projected in the longer range guidance is lining up for Winter Weather Lovers. Time will tell!

Re: December 2018:Chilly Wx Returns/Late Week Rain

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:19 am
by CrashTestDummy
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:20 am LOCK. IT. IN!

Image


Christmas Day!
Crap! That means being out in the rain and possibly snow on Christmas day covering trees! Boo!

Re: December 2018: Compact Potent Storm/High Winds Late Week

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:26 am
by CRASHWX
MJO moves into 3/4 phase over next few days into first of next week...then moves to 5 in the days leading up to Christmas...from what I have looked at the 3 and 4 phase goes along with the strattawarm idea? Moving into phase 5 then opens the door on cold. I have seen 10 plus late December and January patterns and they look very very similar to what we have know and telegraphs the above ad those previous patterns moved the exact same direction. An y Pro Mets with Ideas on this. I am really trying understand?

Re: December 2018: Compact Potent Storm/High Winds Late Week

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:40 am
by harp
How far out did the GFS predict your November snow dusting?

Re: December 2018: Compact Potent Storm/High Winds Late Week

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:13 am
by Texaspirate11
Whats the EURO say about Christmas so far out?????