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It feels wonderful outside!! Warmer than I expected it to be today but I’ll gladly take it. I wish I was at home so I could go for a run before the rain moves in.

I fear that because this storm has been so well advertised for almost a week now the general public's (ie non weather geeks) expectations are out of whack. I agree that we should all be prepared for a worst case scenario, but if disruptive flooding does not occur I worry this event will be labeled a bust by most people. Its a catch 22. Better modeling gives us a better picture earlier on but it also allows hype to build for many days can distort expectations.

sau27 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:24 pm I fear that because this storm has been so well advertised for almost a week now the general public's (ie non weather geeks) expectations are out of whack. I agree that we should all be prepared for a worst case scenario, but if disruptive flooding does not occur I worry this event will be labeled a bust by most people. Its a catch 22. Better modeling gives us a better picture earlier on but it also allows hype to build for many days can distort expectations.

And I am not putting that on the meteorologists. I think they have done a fabulous job. I am saying some local media is playing this up doing stories on high water vehicles and focusing everything on the isolated 10 inch possibility rather than the more likely 3-5 inch outcome most people will see.

Cold front has passed DW Hooks

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1043 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 231 PM EST Fri Dec 07 2018 Areas affected...Central Coastal Plain of TX... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 071930Z - 080030Z SUMMARY...Warm sector enhanced convection with potential for repeat tracks, may lead to isolated flooding/flash flooding through early evening. DISCUSSION...GOES-16 WV suite depicts leading edge of greatest height-falls are approaching across South Texas. This leads to favorable eastward shift of the ridge axis and placement of the warm sector across the coastal plain of Texas to be within the right entrance to the 90kt 3H jet streak enhancing vertical ascent and strengthening of low level inflow fairly orthogonal to the frontal zone draped from N of ALI to N of VCT to deepening surface wave NW of Houston Metro area. Sfc inflow of 15-20kts near CRP is advecting high Theta-E air (70F Tds) off the Western Gulf, and CIRA LPW fields suggesting saturated profiles starting to align over the front leading to total PWat values in the vicinity of 1.75" per GPS network. While cloud cover has limited solar insolation, temps to 75F support 750-1250 J/kg of SBCAPEs with consistent replenishing flow, though slowly veering with time. 10.3 um channel has shown continual shield of cooling tops, but now embedded overshooting CBs in Bee/Goliad county have reached -65C increasing the vertical depth for rainfall generation, likely indicating rates up to 1.75"/hr are probable in the next few hours. Cell motions to the NE at 20kts are likely to limit the duration at any given point to produce flash flooding, but it is the veering wind profiles and persistent and slowly increasing LLJ as the main height-falls approach that should support additional upstream development. As such repeat tracks are possible especially near coastal zones where enhanced convergence from friction at bay/inlet/cove intersections are likely to aid in the redevelopment process. Limiting factor is clearly dry antecedent conditions across the region, though reduced soil infiltration due to transition to winter ground conditions may support more runoff than FFG values would suggest, still flash flooding should be limited in scale and coverage, even the most aggressive Hi-Res CAMs such as the GEM-Regional, HRRR and HRRR-Experimental are only 2-3" through 00z, from San Patricio to Wharton/Matagorda county. Observational trends are favoring these models' orientation and evolution to suggest flash flooding may be possible through evening hours. Gallina ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

Here...it...comes....

Oh the weather outside is frightful!

It's rainy and coldish.

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:49 pm Cold front has passed DW Hooks

Interesting! You can just make out the line amongst the overriding precip. I do, though, hope most of it stays north of us. Our back yard _just_ got so that there was no standing water. I fear our 'Pearland pumps' (rubber rain boots) will be needed to set foot out the back door.

The past couple HRRR runs have ramped up the rainfall over the metro area. Interesting development.

Latest few runs of the HRRR model have moved the heaviest axis of rain along the 59 corridor,it really has things picking up around 6 this evening.

Front passed here about an hour and a half ago. It's cooling off now....the warm sector was fun while it lasted....

HGX did a youtube briefing, from about noonish, 20 min long, recently tweeted

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1 ... 7567056896
https://youtu.be/gq4ksMYqUBY

000
FXUS64 KHGX 072046
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
246 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...
At 2 PM, a cold front extended from just north of Cleveland to
Sugar Land to just north of Palacios. The front continues to make
slow but steady progress toward the coast. The front may stall for
a time this evening as low pressure develops along the boundary.
The low will move east and drag the front across the rest of the
CWA by late tonight. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will
continue tonight as favorable upper level winds coupled with PW
values near 1.90 inches and lift on the east side of an
approaching upper trough will be the necessary ingredients to
generate precip overnight. The rain will be heavy at times and
will maintain locally heavy rain in the weather grids. 1-3 inches
of rain has fallen today over the northern half of the CWA with
parts of Walker county receiving 3.40 inches of rain. The rain has
fallen over a long duration today and flash flooding has not been
reported. Rainfall rates are expected to increase tonight but the
movement of the front/sfc low looks a bit faster so even if
rainfall rates increase, not quite seeing the necessary duration
to generate flash flooding. Total rainfall for the event looks to
be 3-6 inches over the north, 2-4 inches central/coast with some
isolated 5 inch totals possible. Will maintain the Flash Flood
Watch areawide tonight but have shortened the duration and will
end the watch at 14z and this is still probably too long.

Rain will end early Saturday but skies will remain cloudy.
Temperatures will be quite cool on Saturday with highs struggling
to reach the lower 50`s north/upper 50`s coast. Moisture trapped
beneath an inversion will keeps skies mostly cloudy Saturday night
and Sunday. High temps on Sunday will again struggle to warm into
the lower 50`s. High pressure will build into the state on Sunday
night and skies will clear. Colder temperatures are expected by
Monday morning and a few areas will probably fall to near
freezing. A bit of a warm up on Monday as the surface high drifts
east with the warming trend continuing Tuesday and Wednesday. An
upper level trough will move across the southern plains on
Thursday and a sfc low will develop near the panhandle. Warm air
advection showers will be possible Wednesday but strong capping
will limit intensity and coverage. Lift increases on Thursday as
the upper trough deepens and showers should become more
widespread. Another cold front will cross the area next Friday
bringing colder temperatures back to the area for next weekend.
43

&&

.MARINE...

SE winds are expected to increase late this afternoon and early this
evening ahead of a cold front that will push off the mid TX coast
this evening and the upper TX coast during the early morning hours
on Saturday. Behind the front, winds will increase to advisory
levels. Decided to add the Bays to a portion of the ongoing
advisory, beginning early Saturday morning. Tides are currently
slightly above normal, but are not expected to rise to problem
levels overnight. We will be monitoring low water levels on Sunday
with persistent N/NW flow behind the front. Onshore flow will return
on Tuesday with another cold front expected late next week which
will likely produce strong offshore flow next Friday. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 45 50 39 50 36 / 100 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 50 54 42 52 38 / 100 40 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 55 57 44 52 43 / 100 70 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 7 PM CST this evening
through Sunday morning for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CST Sunday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 PM CST Sunday
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

jasons wrote: ↑Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:52 pm Front passed here about an hour and a half ago. It's cooling off now....the warm sector was fun while it lasted....

You could run inside Jason. I am when I get home.

I never noticed the "Current Observations" toward the bottom of the home page link to the ZOA, CWSU site, I really like that - the NASA satellite options rock & all the tab options are great as well

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/

NWS Houston Flash Flood Watch

The HRRR still looks pretty ominous for this evening and overnight..

So the Max amount I am seeing right now for the area is Huntsville with 5.1, any higher amounts anyone else has. I have had Only .85. when the main system going to move threw Conroe?

Looks like the blob is over from a Victoria to San Antonio line. Maybe this will be an inch or two of rain and call it done

making a messy evening rush commute - pack your patience !

https://traffic.houstontranstar.org/lay ... e&nmd=true

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-N0Q-1-48

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1 ... 6556173317
Avoid or delay travel tonight if you can. Heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding will increase through the evening and continue overnight across southeast TX. Turn around, Don't drown! #bcswx #houwx #txwx