December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve
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christinac2016
- Posts: 115
- Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:18 pm
- Location: The Woodlands
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Merry Christmas! I’m watching little house on the prairie where there’s a blizzard. While I don’t wish for a blizzard I wish it was cold (just to make mom happy). Could we ask Santa for snow?
Merry Christmas everyone!! Have a safe and wonderful holiday!
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LightningBolt
- Posts: 35
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- Location: Central Liberty County
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Merry Christmas to all! Wishing everyone a peaceful, safe and enjoyable day.
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Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
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Merry Christmas...not even cold up north this year°°° few snow flakes overall...dry and mild!!! I'm happy with that! 
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Merry Christmas to all!
Sometimes he is hard to interpret. Is he saying the models can't handle this, that's why the GFS has still looked so warm?
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
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Merry Christmas!
The weather is absolutely disgusting and Grinch-ish today. Looking forward to this weekend with highs in the 40s!
The weather is absolutely disgusting and Grinch-ish today. Looking forward to this weekend with highs in the 40s!
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Enjoy our quiet weather this Christmas Day because the tranquil weather pattern we have endured is coming to an abrupt halt beginning tomorrow. Plan on an active weather period beginning tomorrow afternoon and continuing into Thursday. Chances of severe weather with a heavy rainfall potential looks to develop across our Region and extend East into the Louisiana. Our neighbors in New Orleans are included in the stormy weather pattern ahead and it looks to persist into the New Years Eve timeframe. More later on that. Meanwhile a Very Merry Christmas to all of our Weather Community! We are completing yet another amazing year of weather watching.
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srainhoutx
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Christmas Morning weather briefing from Jeff:
Severe Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon-Thursday morning.
A strong storm system will move across TX Wednesday and Thursday with a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Moist air mass is quickly returning to the area this morning with low clouds and fog over much of the region. Warm air advection will increase today and a few showers will be possible mainly west of I-10. May see some sea fog develop this evening if winds don’t come up too much and spread into the coastal counties as dewpoints rise into the 60’s.
Surface low will deepen over NW TX on Wednesday with a well defined warm sector over eastern TX and across all of SE TX. Air mass will be capped in the morning, but lead short wave will move across the area toward the afternoon hours cooling the air column and the area will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Still looking for the instability as clouds, fog, and showers will limit any surface heating on Wednesday. Warm air advection and dewpoints rising into the mid 60’s should push CAPE to around 800-1200 J/kg by mid afternoon along with strong shear values. Not sure that is enough instability to produce more than some taller showers. Will need to keep an eye on the cells as even with mainly showers…the strong shear profiles could produce a few tornadoes in low topped supercells. This setup is always conditional along the Gulf coast this time of year…something to watch tomorrow afternoon.
More significant round of severe weather looks possible in the midnight to 800am time period on Thursday as the storm system lifts north of our region and a cold front/dryline moves across with a line of thunderstorms. Capping should be eroded at least north of US 59 over much of the region by cooling within the trough. Linear forcing along the cold front will support squall line formation and mainly a damaging wind and isolated tornado threat…although can’t rule out some large hail with mid level temperatures cooling. Will favor the areas along and N of I-10 for the highest severe threat which lines up well with the latest SPC outlook.
Moisture levels are certainly there to support heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches over much of the area for this event with higher totals especially east of I-45 and north of I-10. Convective nature of this event will support some 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates…so street flooding will be possible. Time of year support maximum run-off conditions and much of what falls will go directly into area watersheds, but overall fast storm and system motion should keep rainfall amounts below levels that would cause concerns for any significant flooding.
Unsettled pattern continues into the weekend with southwest flow aloft over top of a deepening cold dome at the surface. Looks pretty cold and miserable from the 30th-1st with cold air locked in at the surface and lots of moisture overrunning the cold air aloft. Do not see any freezing temperatures…mainly just stuck in the 40’s…so looking at all rain for SE TX at this time. Will have to keep an eye on rainfall totals for the weekend after heavy rains tomorrow and Thursday as grounds will have little time for dry much before onset of additional rainfall as early as Friday evening.
SPC Severe Weather Outlook:
[/i]
Severe Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon-Thursday morning.
A strong storm system will move across TX Wednesday and Thursday with a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Moist air mass is quickly returning to the area this morning with low clouds and fog over much of the region. Warm air advection will increase today and a few showers will be possible mainly west of I-10. May see some sea fog develop this evening if winds don’t come up too much and spread into the coastal counties as dewpoints rise into the 60’s.
Surface low will deepen over NW TX on Wednesday with a well defined warm sector over eastern TX and across all of SE TX. Air mass will be capped in the morning, but lead short wave will move across the area toward the afternoon hours cooling the air column and the area will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Still looking for the instability as clouds, fog, and showers will limit any surface heating on Wednesday. Warm air advection and dewpoints rising into the mid 60’s should push CAPE to around 800-1200 J/kg by mid afternoon along with strong shear values. Not sure that is enough instability to produce more than some taller showers. Will need to keep an eye on the cells as even with mainly showers…the strong shear profiles could produce a few tornadoes in low topped supercells. This setup is always conditional along the Gulf coast this time of year…something to watch tomorrow afternoon.
More significant round of severe weather looks possible in the midnight to 800am time period on Thursday as the storm system lifts north of our region and a cold front/dryline moves across with a line of thunderstorms. Capping should be eroded at least north of US 59 over much of the region by cooling within the trough. Linear forcing along the cold front will support squall line formation and mainly a damaging wind and isolated tornado threat…although can’t rule out some large hail with mid level temperatures cooling. Will favor the areas along and N of I-10 for the highest severe threat which lines up well with the latest SPC outlook.
Moisture levels are certainly there to support heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches over much of the area for this event with higher totals especially east of I-45 and north of I-10. Convective nature of this event will support some 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates…so street flooding will be possible. Time of year support maximum run-off conditions and much of what falls will go directly into area watersheds, but overall fast storm and system motion should keep rainfall amounts below levels that would cause concerns for any significant flooding.
Unsettled pattern continues into the weekend with southwest flow aloft over top of a deepening cold dome at the surface. Looks pretty cold and miserable from the 30th-1st with cold air locked in at the surface and lots of moisture overrunning the cold air aloft. Do not see any freezing temperatures…mainly just stuck in the 40’s…so looking at all rain for SE TX at this time. Will have to keep an eye on rainfall totals for the weekend after heavy rains tomorrow and Thursday as grounds will have little time for dry much before onset of additional rainfall as early as Friday evening.
SPC Severe Weather Outlook:
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Looks like the old GFS is starting to trend a little colder.
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CRASHWX
- Posts: 266
- Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm
- Location: Hardin County / North of Beaumont
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So many moving parts all changing practically at the same time along with a strato event...models have been in bug out mode but they will eventually line up but as usual may not handle the shallow surface intensity very well until we get in range short range meso community. Looks like a good snow pack to our north will be in place but the first week of Jan which should lend to much less modification. Now that is my take on all the things I have looked at and taken in...that being said I’m sure our PRO METS will be all over this in prettyshort order. Y’all please don’t take my enthusiasm to talk about things as trying be a forecaster...I’m not that guy!
but I do love weather and the machine that is our atmospheric science!
CRASHWX 
Merry Christmas to everyone!
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Andrew
- Site Admin
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- Location: North-West Houston
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I hope everyone is enjoying Christmas today, because the switch will flip tomorrow evening into Thursday morning as a frontal boundary pushes through the state. Models are showing a very dynamic setup over the eastern half of Texas as the LLJ ramps up and lapse rates are steep enough to provide enough instability for heavy rain and severe storms. Based on the timing and convective mode winds and heavy rain will be the primary threat, but you cannot rule out some embedded tornadoes and quick spin ups.
For the longer range, models are still struggling with a very active setup for the beginning of the year. It does look like temperatures will trend towards below average, but how long that lasts and if any moisture follows it will be key. Historically, January and February are our best chances for wintry precipitation so we are just beginning to get into "the season" for it.
For the longer range, models are still struggling with a very active setup for the beginning of the year. It does look like temperatures will trend towards below average, but how long that lasts and if any moisture follows it will be key. Historically, January and February are our best chances for wintry precipitation so we are just beginning to get into "the season" for it.
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Huge differences on the 12km NAM vs the 3km
