December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

[Cpv17]

I’m not really seeing anything on the models right now that has me excited. They look pretty boring. Not even really showing much rain. We look to be on the edge of some heavy rains. Models are pounding areas east of us with a lot of rain. As far as cold goes I don’t really even seeing us having a freeze for the remainder of the month as of now, but that still could change. You might as well forget about cold and snow if we can’t get any blocking over Alaska.

[don]

Looking at features at the surface level and taking them verbatim is unwise 180+ hours out on the globals. The models will flip flop as they try to resolve this complex pattern we're entering. The upper level features and setup are what is more important this far out...

[Cpv17]

Looking at features at the surface level and taking them verbatim is unwise 180+ hours out on the globals, the upper level features and setup are what is more important this far out...

I know that lol that’s why I said as of right now I don’t see anything, but it could change. I really do want to see blocking over Alaska before I get too excited about anything though.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looking at features at the surface level and taking them verbatim is unwise 180+ hours out on the globals, the upper level features and setup are what is more important this far out...

I know that lol that’s why I said as of right now I don’t see anything, but it could change. I really do want to see blocking over Alaska before I get too excited about anything though.

First off the 12z ensembles had some blocking over Alaska. Secondly, we don’t necessarily need Alaskan blocking to get winter weather down here, although it’s typically our preferred way. A negative AO and neutral to negative PNA can be very beneficial.

The SSW is 24-36 hours away from starting and the models are getting schizo. I wouldn’t trust anything outside of the 120 hour range.

[CRASHWX]

Stratospheric Warming, blocking, ridging, trophs and either splitting or redevelopment of the polar vortex will take time to develop and those key things happen things will gel in the models. Till those things happen they be erratic and inconsistent. The interesting part is the fact that such a large percentage of the ensembles are picking up on the atmospheric changes along with MJO moving into favorable cold phases starts to foreshadow major changes.

[Katdaddy]

A Cloudy Winter-like sky from the E downtown Houston in the Hess Tower this afternoon.

[jasons2k]

No freezes posted in the 7-day forecast. I’m quite OK with that. Saturday looks like a fantastic day to grill something.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

No freezes posted in the 7-day forecast. I’m quite OK with that. Saturday looks like a fantastic day to grill something.

The only depressing thing about the short term forecast is Christmas Eve in the 60s and Christmas Day around 70. That’s not Holiday weather.

Low 40s to low 60s is enjoyable otherwise.

Really looking forward to New Years and beyond. It’s going to be a fun January for most of us.

[Cpv17]

Looking at features at the surface level and taking them verbatim is unwise 180+ hours out on the globals, the upper level features and setup are what is more important this far out...

I know that lol that’s why I said as of right now I don’t see anything, but it could change. I really do want to see blocking over Alaska before I get too excited about anything though.

First off the 12z ensembles had some blocking over Alaska. Secondly, we don’t necessarily need Alaskan blocking to get winter weather down here, although it’s typically our preferred way. A negative AO and neutral to negative PNA can be very beneficial.

The SSW is 24-36 hours away from starting and the models are getting schizo. I wouldn’t trust anything outside of the 120 hour range.

I think I’d rather have a neutral to slightly negative PNA for us around here...but yeah definitely not a positive PNA. I’m tired of those east coast folks getting all the fun lol

[harp]

Well, I hope it starts showing up in the models. I'll feel a lot better.

[Cpv17]

Well, I hope it starts showing up in the models. I'll feel a lot better.

Me and you both

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well, I hope it starts showing up in the models. I'll feel a lot better.

Well, to be fair, once we get past next Thursday, all of the models show below average temps (40s and 50s) with southern storm tracks. The colder air probably won’t show up until week 1/2 of January if the long range models are correct. PV starts moving our way mid next week, albeit slowly, per long range.

[djmike]

We were really spoiled after last years 3-4 snow event all happening in Dec. now that dec is coming to a close, i too feel the depression that creeps on thinking we may go this winter with absolutely nothing. Snow. Ice sleet. BUT, a lot can happen in a months time and jan feb are usually out coldest months of tbe year. Anything can happen. May be an awesome start to 2019! We’ll aee!

[Katdaddy]

Showers and a few thunderstorms this morning ahead of the cold front which will move offshore later this morning with clearing skies and increasing NW winds. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of SE TX from 9AM to 6PM. Mostly sunny skies Friday and Saturday.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 AM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

...A Wind Advisory in effect Today from 9 AM through 6 PM...

.A tightening pressure gradient behind this morning`s cold front will bring gusty winds to SE TX through much of the day. Sustained northwest winds will be around 25 mph with gusts near 30 to 35 mph.

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening.

* EVENT...Northwest winds around 25 mph with gusts between 30 to 35 mph.

* TIMING...Thursday at 9 AM through 6 PM.

* IMPACT...Loose objects outside may below away. Be sure to secure any outdoor furniture or decorations, tents, canopies, patio furniture, bouncy houses, and high-profile cranes. High profile vehicles on southwest to northeast roads may experience strong cross winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drivers of vans...campers...trailers...and other high-profile
vehicles should be alert to the danger of these winds...
especially when driving along southwest to northeast oriented roads

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We were really spoiled after last years 3-4 snow event all happening in Dec. now that dec is coming to a close, i too feel the depression that creeps on thinking we may go this winter with absolutely nothing. Snow. Ice sleet. BUT, a lot can happen in a months time and jan feb are usually out coldest months of tbe year. Anything can happen. May be an awesome start to 2019! We’ll aee!

In La Nina’s our WInters are typically front loaded then they warm. It is the opposite in the type of Winter we are currently in. December’s are typically warmer. We will probably finish December below average here.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 2h2 hours ago
On this date Dec 20th, 1929 across Texas and into Southeast Texas came a whopper snow event.

[CRASHWX]

MJO forecast to move 6-7-8 Jan Feb which looking at the past sho-nuff looks cold and with an active sub jet banging away look out!
I’m really interested in seeing how this pans out...Of course much is still literally up in the air! I don’t think this will be a big in face temp drop as much as a step down but the question is just how far it steps down before it levels off and how long it last before it begains to step back up?

[harp]

Well, the 12Z GFS is of NO help to us winter weather lovers.....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well, the 12Z GFS is of NO help to us winter weather lovers.....

Stop looking at long range op runs. They are going to be in flux for the next 10 days.

I’d look at where the MJO is going and our AO, NAO , EPO TIs. All are starting to look favorable.

That will tell you the January story.

By the way, I don’t have any problem with the 12z GFS... we stay below normal temp wise from hour 174 onward. While I’m a snow lover, my first desire in winter is to have seasonal to below average temps. I love days with highs in the 40s and low 50s. Starting late next week, we never see the 60s again, and that makes me happy.

Some of y’all forget how rare winter events are down here. In an average decade, we won’t see more than 4-5 events total and most of those are very marginal.

[Cpv17]

We were really spoiled after last years 3-4 snow event all happening in Dec. now that dec is coming to a close, i too feel the depression that creeps on thinking we may go this winter with absolutely nothing. Snow. Ice sleet. BUT, a lot can happen in a months time and jan feb are usually out coldest months of tbe year. Anything can happen. May be an awesome start to 2019! We’ll aee!

I would start to really focus in on the middle part of January through mid February. I think that time period will be our best shot for something this winter. Also, last years snow during December was in a La Niña winter, but the Christmas snow of 04 and the snow in 09 were both El Niño’s.