December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

[srainhoutx]

Short term mesoscale models suggest a track over SE Texas with the vertically stacked compact cold core upper low. The latest HRRR High Resolution Rapid Refresh model does suggest a wintry mixture may get very close to Austin tonight/tomorrow morning.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131728
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1128 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated grids a little earlier to account for sky cover trends and
some tweaks regarding the timing of the upcoming increase of winds.
Clouds will continue to clear from the west (to east) through this
afternoon as the main system (and its associated storms) moves off
to the E/NE. These clearing skies should help in destabilizing the
airmass as the very deep low moves into the region later this aft-
ernoon. 41

&&

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Short term mesoscale models suggest a track over SE Texas with the vertically stacked compact cold core upper low. The latest HRRR High Resolution Rapid Refresh model does suggest a wintry mixture may get very close to Austin tonight/tomorrow morning.

What a gorgeous map.

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 131904
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
104 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018


.AVIATION...
Scattered showers near Galveston still a good indication that
instability survived after this morning`s storms. Will be keeping
an eye on the possibility that more will redevelop over the areas
to the east of the UTS-IAH corridor during peak heating. Can see
what looks like ACCAS near San Marcos and AC spreading into the
CLL/RWV area at 18z. Have increased winds quite a bit as LLJ and
nose of the 700 comes in expect winds to get quite strong and
gusty. Areas southwest of the SGR/LBX area will like see very
strong and gusty winds in the 10-18z window. The last holdouts of
IFR this morning have ended near UTS/CXO and expect mainly VFR
through the afternoon with lower ceilings around 1200-2200 feet to
develop across the area after 06z. Closer to the core of the
upper low will see some light rain or showers develop and swing
through the region mainly again after 06z. Near 12z could see a
brief period at CLL for some snow flurries (well above freezing)
so just a mix in of some flakes but no accumulation...shifting
toward UTS 14-17z again no accumulation. MVFR ceilings should
prevail well past 00z 15th.
45

[Cpv17]

Beautiful day so far here. 75 degrees and sunny with a nice cool breeze. Love it!

[tireman4]

Wow..the temperature drop in Fort Worth...

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 132210
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
410 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
HGX radar getting a bit more active these last few hours, but not
seeing any lightning just yet...just brief heavy rainfall. But as
it stands, the threat of strong/severe storms will be diminishing
sooner than previously thought...given the initial development of
things over the far eastern edges of our CWA...and should be mov-
ing further east out of the area before too long.

Otherwise, the warm/above normal temperatures this afternoon will
be finally giving way to cooler/windier conditions thru the even-
ing hours. And per current obs, the cold front (and its increased
winds/gusts) has moved into our western counties and will be pro-
pagating east with time. At present...no changes planned with the
going configurations with the Wind Advisory (inland) and the Gale
Warnings (over the coastal waters) for tonight thru tomorrow aft-
ernoon. The strong (deep) low pressure system responsible for all
of this is expected to move far enough to the E/NE of the area by
Fri evening and we should see much improved conditions by then.

As high pressure builds in behind this system...light north winds
along with more seasonable temperatures are forecast for the week
end. These dry conditions could last into the early parts of next
week...even as the upper ridging flattens in response to the next
upper low/trof developing out west. This system is progged to be-
gin lifting out to the E/NE by mid week and our next best chances
for rain could start Tues night, persisting through Weds night. A
rather limited window of return flow will keep POPs on the lowish
side for now, then ending with the passage of the associated cold
front early Thurs. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly and southwesterly winds developing across SETX and into the
coastal waters this afternoon. Cold front pushing eastward should
move into the coastal waters tonight boosting winds further into
near gale. After midnight strong CAA and LLJ wrapping around the
anomalously deep upper low over SETX will cause wind to jump up to
Gale force over much of the Upper Texas Coastal Waters likely
peaking either side of sunrise by around 3 hours. Window between 6-
9am looks very favorable for wind gusts of 45 to 55 knots and may
even need a Storm warning for the southwest waters. Seas will soar
to 14-18 feet with the strong winds. Winds during the afternoon
relaxing and becoming more northwesterly into the evening hours.
The strong winds will also lower tide levels and have issued a Low
Water Advisory for the Bays midnight through 6 pm. By Saturday
afternoon winds down to 15 to 20 knots.

45
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong west and northwesterly flow the next 36 hours with very gusty
conditions in the southwest areas Friday morning...wind gusts of 40
to 50 mph. Humidity though should remain at or above 40 percent
with strong cold advection and cloud cover. Some patchy light rain
overnight/early Friday will also help to keep the humidity up.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 44 50 39 59 39 / 40 30 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 47 51 43 60 44 / 20 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 52 53 47 60 51 / 10 20 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for the following zones:
Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...
Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...
Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...
Montgomery...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Low Water Advisory from 3 PM to 6 PM CST Friday for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Friday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 140011
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

.AVIATION...
The central Texas upper low very evident in IR imagery will be
churning just north of the region through Friday morning. This
will be the impetus to strong westerly winds along its backside.
The morning surface gradient will become quite tight between the
high building into west Texas and the eastern-exiting low into
northern Louisiana. This gradient will produce 20 knot sustained,
gust to 30 knot, (north)westerlies through the day tomorrow. MVFR
with occasional IFR ceilings will hang in there as the near surface
layer under the 3-4k ft inversion remains saturated. The other
item of note may be early morning snow flurries mixed into the
light rain up across hubs north of the city. 31

&&

[srainhoutx]

Very gusty winds have arrived in NW Harris County. I hope folks with those inflatable Christmas Decorations have shut them down and secured them.

[harp]

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.

[jasons2k]

My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.

We had the same at our 3 year olds school. We live in Magnolia but go to GCA which is at 1488/45. Wondering if we were at the same thing.

[jasons2k]

My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.

We had the same at our 3 year olds school. We live in Magnolia but go to GCA which is at 1488/45. Wondering if we were at the same thing.

No, we are zoned for Kaufman.

Hope you enjoyed the show. They are fun to watch! But wow, they grow up so fast.

[CRASHWX]

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.

I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.

[Cpv17]

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.

I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.

Just watch the Indian Ocean. When the thunderstorm activity in that area starts decreasing then watch out for cold across the US.

[harp]

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.

I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.

Thanks. Yep, JB has been doing this his whole life and people still write him checks, so he must be good. I'm also interested to see what srain says.

[CRASHWX]

Yes I watch joe’s free daily videos and Saturday report. I usually plan my vacations around his game plan. Be interesting to see if his theory pans out on the cold showing up by Christmas and going gang busters January and February

[Texaspirate11]

I dont put much faith in overall the GFS and even littler faith in JB...just my opinion snd weather watching for years...

[harp]

I'm not getting into bashing anyone. I'll just refer back to my original question.

[Texaspirate11]

OH didn't mean to bash just talking out loud LOL
Stay warm everyone!