NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

[Cpv17]

The HRRR is hinting at some light wintry precip over SETX tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Monday evening briefing from Jeff:

Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for: Brazos, Burleson, Madison, and Houston Counties

Freeze Watch is in effect for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for much of SE TX except the immediate coast

First freeze of the winter season likely over much of the area Wednesday morning. Actions should be taken to protect and winterize sensitive vegetation and pets. Most pipes will be fine at the forecasted temperatures…but now is as good of time as any to go ahead and winterize those sprinkler systems and faucet connectors.

Strong cold front has moved offshore with gusty NW winds of 15-25mph inland and 30-40mph along the coast this afternoon. Upper level flow out of the SSW continues to bring moisture and disturbances across the area resulting in a cold light rain. Rain should end this evening as drier NW flow develops and spreads SE into the region. Overlap over increasing depth of cold air and a few areas of linger mid level moisture could result in a sleet pellet or two between midnight and 600am Tuesday, but would not expect any impacts. Far NW counties will likely see an advection freeze overnight as strong cold air advection continues to dump cold air southward into the region. Lows of 29-32 will be possible in the College Station to Madisonville area, but do not expect freezing temperatures to expand much further south given the cloud cover and strong winds overnight. Temperatures will struggle to reach 50 on Tuesday with continued cold air advection and clouds…although clouds will begin to decrease by mid to late afternoon.

With high pressure overnight into Tuesday night and skies clearing…winds weakening, very cold conditions can be expected with lows bottoming out in the upper 20’s north of HWY 105 to 29-32 north of a line from roughly Bay City to Angleton to Pasadena to Winnie. Houston urban heat island may save area inside the Beltway from freezing, but it will be close and winds along the coast and warm nearshore waters will keep the coast above freezing. This freeze should be cold enough to end the growing season over much of the area and damage any sensitive tropical vegetation…so those precautions need to be taken.

Mid level temperatures begin to warm on Wednesday, but even with sunny skies only expecting highs to top out in the low 50’s and then crash again on Wednesday night. Will likely be with a degree or two of freezing again Thursday morning in much of the area…likely more in the 31-33 degree range instead of 29-31 given a slight increase in mid level temperatures. Slow but steady air mass modification begins on Thursday with no additional freezing mornings expected and highs pushing back toward 60 by the end of the week under mainly clear skies.

Zonal flow aloft will continue into next week with increasing moisture and rain chances starting early next week and much warmer temperatures. Early look toward Thanksgiving looks potentially stormy…but this is far out in time…of course we do not have the best record of late with holiday’s and weather events in this area.

[Cpv17]

[harp]

Virga?

[don]

The national weather service mentioned this as a low possibility in this afternoons discussion.

FXUS64 KHGX 122156
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front has pushed through the area, and a mix of light rain
showers and drizzle are being seen across much of Southeast Texas.
That should slowly wind down through the night as drier air flows
in. That drier air will also be much colder, prompting a freeze
warning for several counties in the northwest overnight. Inland
areas that don`t see a freeze tonight will almost certainly see
one tomorrow night, and so a freeze watch is in effect for the
rest of inland Southeast Texas. Wednesday night may only be
slightly warmer than Tuesday night, but the second half of the
week will feature a slow, but gradual warmup with fair weather.
Temperatures will only start to approach seasonal averages this
weekend.


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

With front through the area, winds have become northwesterly
across Southeast Texas, and have increased with sustained winds
into the mid teens and gusts into the 20s and as high as 30 mph
at the coast. The wind advisory at the coast looks to verify
nicely. An argument could be made to expand the advisory inland a
bit more, but is marginal enough that we will hold off on that as
winds are more or less near the forecast max.

Water vapor imagery continues to show a string of very weak upper
disturbances moving across the area as shown in short range model
guidance. This is supporting the light precipitation, but upper
jet placement is fairly poor at the moment. While we are likely to
see the jet drift into a better position late tonight, the influx
of drier air will keep a good setup out of phase.

Temperatures have finally begun to slide as the layer of
northwesterly winds and cold advection becomes deeper. From here
on out, we`re just getting colder. Have not meaningfully changed
the low temperature forecast, so the current freeze warnings have
been left in place, untouched. Did give a brief
thought to expanding south a bit, particularly with the northern
edge of Grimes County, but don`t think that any potential value in
expanding the warning would outweigh the confusion of expanding
it, particularly since most of Grimes is still expected to stay
above the freezing mark.

There is still a non-zero chance that the incoming cold air will
overlap with lingering moisture to provide a brief spurt of a few
sleet pellets. I guess...technically...a flurry isn`t even out of
the question, either. But, the phrase really doing the work here
is `non-zero`. Or, in other words,
. This scenario is unlikely,
but given the buzz flying about today, I wanted to investigate
what would be required to actually see it happen.


If...IF (Big If)...anything pings out of the sky, look/listen for
it to happen in the late overnight hours - 3-6 am...ish - when
the closest thing to an area of frontogenesis aloft will match up
in the northwest (Caldwell, College Station, Madisonville,
Crockett, etc) with some PWATs just under half an inch and
falling. Again...IF...winds are expected to dry off the roads,
plus warm ground will mean no real impacts. Mainly just something
to speculate about around the water cooler today.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[DoctorMu]

HRRR = BRRR

[Katdaddy]

Its cold morning across SE TX with inland temps in the mid to upper 30s and low to mid 40s along the coast. Strong gusting N winds continue with wind chills in the upper 20s and low 30. Skies will clear later this is evening and overnight with light winds resulting a freeze across all of SE TX except the immediate coast. Expect another freeze again across much of SE TX. Radar this morning across Central TX shows some areas of light Winter precipitation however there have only been a few isolated reports of a flurry or ice pellet.

[unome]

40 degrees on our patio, but that wind just cuts right through you

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=houston

[Heat Miser]

Winter came in very fast this year. Clarification for you folks from the north, it gets below 60 degrees and that's a legitimate cold front for us. Given that, 40 degrees, wow.

[srainhoutx]

A couple of reports of flurries/ice pellets near Snook/College Station.

[don]

Its really crazy to see snow bands on the radar in November!, hopefully, this is a sign of things to come...

[srainhoutx]

Reports of snow flurries in Montgomery now.

[srainhoutx]

Flurries in Sealy

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Holiday time baby! Love it!

[srainhoutx]

Active weather pattern developing early next week and likely continuing throughout Thanksgiving into the later days of November. In typical weak/moderate El Nino fashion, the Southern Branch of the jet stream looks extremely active with upper level disturbances riding along the Southern tier of the United States and multiple chances of Coastal lows bring rounds of heavy rain and potentially thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast. The last week of November is showing some signs of change in the high latitudes and blocking attempts to develop across the NE Pacific and the Northern Atlantic. If I were looking for a return of much below normal weather, I would monitor the first week or so of December. Interestingly, Northern Hemisphere snow cover is near decadal highs. As the coldest air retreats back to Canada later this week, look for continued stormy/snowy weather to our North and our source Regions.

[srainhoutx]

Graupel in Huntsville.

[DoctorMu]

A couple of reports of flurries/ice pellets near Snook/College Station.

35° IMBY. Snow on the radar.

Snow in the air! This has to be the first November snow in BCS.

It won't stick, and it's mixed with sleet...but...

[jasons2k]

I was just about to post “this weather is miserable” until I saw the posts about snow. So I’ll correct it to “this weather feels miserable”...

[DoctorMu]

I was just about to post “this weather is miserable” until I saw the posts about snow. So I’ll correct it to “this weather feels miserable”...

Nah, it's pretty awesome. I don't mind the cold. Pretty brisk wind though. Wind chill of 26°F with the 15 mph NW wind.

[srainhoutx]

Ice pellets/sleet mixing with drizzle reported in McAllen and Edinburg in the Rio Grande Valley. Impressive that far South.