NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

[snowman65]

any thoughts on upcoming Thanksgiving timeframe yet?

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Isolated severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and overnight

Strong cold front will move across the area on Monday with potential for first freeze of the season by the middle of the week.

Upper level pattern has a broad trough over the central plains which has resulted in cold front pushing well out in the Gulf of Mexico last Friday. Due to the approach of an incoming trough over the Baja region, the surface cold front is starting to retreat northward along the lower TX coast. Surface analysis shows the formation of a surface low pressure system over the NW Gulf of Mexico off of the lower TX coast and this system will begin to move NNE this afternoon and overnight while intensifying. Low level jet of 35-50kts will begin to transport moisture over top of the low level cold air mass this afternoon and this will result in the formation of showers and eventually thunderstorms. Air mass at the surface is stable, but air mass above about 4,000ft will become increasing unstable later today into tonight which will support a strong to marginally severe hail threat with storms that develop.

This evening the surface low and its warm front extending eastward along the US Gulf coast will begin to progress inland over SE TX. It remains to be determined exactly how far inland this front will move, but this feature will allow for more surface based storm formation in the narrow warm sector overnight. Current thinking is that the warm front could move inland from about Bay City to Downtown Houston to near Liberty overnight and the area south of this front would be at a risk for a few severe storms with damaging winds or a brief weak tornado. It is also possible that the warm front remain near the coast or offshore and the damaging wind and tornado threat would then also remain offshore.

Strong surface cold front will sweep across SE TX early Monday ushering in some of the coldest air since last winter. Gusty NW winds of 15-25mph will develop over the area on Monday with temperatures falling into the 50’s and likely upper 40’s up north during the day. Clouds will begin to clear on Monday evening, but both the GFS and to a much bigger extent the NAM show some moisture lingering in Monday night and even Tuesday that could help prevent maximum cooling conditions when combined with building high pressure and winds not going calm. Nam continues to show slightly deeper moisture (mainly aloft) over the area on Monday night while the GFS and ECWMF are fairly dry (GFS has some lingering mid level moisture). Do not think there is enough moisture for precipitation and the dry sub cloud layer should help evaporate anything that falls, but cannot completely rule out a couple of sleet pellets north of HWY 105 Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Surface high pressure continues to build into the area on Tuesday and expect highs to struggle to reach 50 degrees. If skies clear out late Tuesday and winds become clam a widespread freeze will be possible on Wednesday morning. GFS is showing 29 for IAH, 24 for Conroe, and 32 for Hobby on Wednesday morning under clear skies. Some concern that upper level cirrus clouds will remain over the region and that the GFS lows are too cold, but even with high level cirrus it looks like many areas could still freeze on Wednesday morning. For now will go with lows in the upper 20’s north of HWY 105 and low 30’s between HWY 105 and US 59 and then low to mid 30’s south of US 59. A freeze warning will likely be needed if current trends continue since this would be the first freeze of the season and the end to our growing season. Now would be a good time to winterize those outdoor items for the winter. Could see another freeze on Thursday morning and in fact, Thursday morning may be a better potential for freezing temperatures with a higher potential for clear skies and lighter winds.

[Electric Lizard]

We just had a little hail up here in SW Washington County. Not even enough to find in the grass for sizing, but when you're living in a metal building, the sound is unmistakable.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro is very cold. Wednesday morning it has a freeze for all of SETX except the coastal counties and eastern counties and Thursday morning it has a freeze for all of us except for the immediate coastline. Mid to upper 20’s for many of us with several hours at or below freezing Thursday morning.

[vci_guy2003]

Is this going to be record breaking cold this week?

[srainhoutx]

Is this going to be record breaking cold this week?

Not likely record cold, should be near the coldest we've seen for this time of year dating back to November 1999 at Bush. If Hobby reaches 32F, that would a 50 year stretch since the last freeze recorded in mid November 1968.

[Texaspirate11]

Freeze warnings are already up for Dallas area.

[Katdaddy]

God Bless and Happy Veterans Day.

It will feel more like Winter this week across TX. An area of low pressure will move along the TX Coast through tomorrow morning. The SPC has a marginal risk area across SE TX but the concern will be the warm sector moving inland along the coastal counties early tomorrow morning where damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the concern so remain weather aware tonight. Expect much colder temps behind the cold front tomorrow morning and gale force winds across the Upper TX Coast. Much of SE TX will see out first freeze and the tropics are not ready to go to asleep yet as Invest 96L will likely become one more named storm and is a concern to the Bahamas before recurving into the Atlantic.

[srainhoutx]

Freeze Warning issued for Brazos, Burleson, Houston and Madison Counties from 3:00AM to 8:00AM tomorrow morning.

[srainhoutx]

Wind chill values tomorrow morning are going to come as a shock. Time to bundle up!

[srainhoutx]

Record shattering cold expected early Wednesday morning for San Antonio and Austin/Camp Mabry. The current record for November 14th at SA is 28F set in 1916 and 26F at Camp Mabry (Austin) also 1916.

[srainhoutx]

any thoughts on upcoming Thanksgiving timeframe yet?

While it is way too soon to know exactly what the sensible weather may bring, the long range ensembles suggest near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation on Thanksgiving Day for SE Texas and along the NW and Northern Gulf Coast.

[tireman4]

Interesting...

[harp]

Interesting...

What does this mean? Thanks.

[tireman4]

Well, I will let the pro mets give you the science behind it...it can mean nothing or it can mean that the cold air "could be routed" down south....it "could" mean a colder season for the lower 48...

[harp]

Thanks.

[jasons2k]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

.UPDATE...

Winds at the surface have become northwesterly with the passage of
the cold front. Though it hasn`t gotten terribly breezy yet,
several spots north and northwest of the metro are gusting to
around 20 mph, and even stronger winds exist upstream, and the
wind advisory near the coast still looks appropriate.

Temperatures have not really started to fall yet, but there
lingers a thin band of warmer 850 mb temps over our area with
southwesterly winds. But...the cold pool lurks just to our
northwest, so don`t expect things to get much/any warmer today.
Temperature forecast seems to be going pretty well, and haven`t
done much more than keep things seamless with the obs.

Model fields suggest scattered blobs of mid-level vorticity
sliding up out of the southwest as the synoptic upper trough
begins to rotate in. This would support the upward omega also seen
in the guidance for this afternoon. While WV imagery doesn`t make
these features readily apparent, the pattern is certainly
supportive of this idea. This strongly suggests a melange of light
precipitation types. I use a fancy term here because it sounds
more pleasant than the plain fact that it mostly means we`ll see
one, some, or all of light patchy fog, sprinkles, drizzle, and/or
light rain showers until deeper northwest flow takes command of
the area late tonight.

Have not meaningfully changed the low temperature forecast, so the
current freeze warnings have been left in place, untouched. There
is still a non-zero chance that the incoming cold air will overlap
with lingering moisture to provide a brief spurt of a few sleet
pellets. I guess...technically...snow isn`t even out of the
question, either. But, the phrase really doing the work here is
`non-zero`. Or, in other words,
.

If...IF...anything pings out of the sky, look/listen for it to
happen in the late overnight hours - 3-6 am...ish - when the
closest thing to an area of frontegenesis aloft will match up in
the northwest (Caldwell, College Station, Madisonville, Crockett,
etc) with some PWATs just under half an inch and falling.
Again...IF...the warm ground and temperatures not quite even to
freezing yet will mean no real impacts. Mainly just something to
speculate about around the water cooler today.

[Cpv17]

Interesting...

Interesting indeed! If that can persist through the winter then we could be looking at potentially some fun times ahead, especially since we’re in an El Niño with an active STJ.

[srainhoutx]

The modified Artic Front has passed Metro Houston and is currently crossing the Coast. Gusty NW winds have increased with some inland areas reporting wind gusts to near 30 MPH. Clouds continue to stream SW to NE from Mexico and the cold upper trough continues to inch S and E. The base of the upper trough extends from near El Paso and the short term guidance suggest that upper trough will eventually close off near Dallas sometime tomorrow afternoon evening. Cold dry air at the surface will continue to filter into our Region tonight into tomorrow. Mid level moisture associated with disturbance rippling along the sub tropical jet may bring bouts of light rain or drizzle overnight into tomorrow morning. There is an outside shot at a couple of reports of sleet early tomorrow morning. No accumulation is expected with any wintry mischief...if it occurs.

Freezing conditions still look likely tomorrow night and may even extend into the DT Houston area. The Western and Northern suburbs could see temperatures in the mid to upper 20's early Wednesday morning, so we may flirt with a hard freeze in the typically coldest areas. I still have some concern that we may not completely clear out with a noisy sub tropical jet near by.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Freeze Watch for tomorrow night into Wednesday morning for SE Texas except near Galveston Bay and near Coastal Areas