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The cold front caught up just in time. We had some impressive swirling winds for a couple of minutes. The squall line forming along the front should have those straight line winds but rotation should ease. Fingers crossed.


Fresh northerly breeze now and steady rain.

Next storm system coming in around Sunday/Monday could be even stronger than the current one. I have to think the above average sst’s in the western Gulf are helping to aid this.

Nice break right now... if you have any kiddos, I'd get them out in the next hour or so to try and salvage the little bit of Halloween they can enjoy.

Think the largest tornado threat may be over... however, latest HRRR suggest that the line out west may still be trying to line itself out as it pushes through Houston. Last few runs are showing a few more discreet supercells developing ahead of the cold front later this evening. Certainly don't want to let our guard down.

That Chappell Hill cell could still rotate...but overall the worst is over.

still looks ugly to me



https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md1604.html



Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Southeast TX to Arklatex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 416...

Valid 312314Z - 010015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 416 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues ahead of cold front across ww416.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent is spreading across central TX ahead
of progressive short-wave trough. This appears to be aiding frontal
surge as squall line matures along the boundary, advancing southeast
at roughly 25kt. While a few supercells may be embedded along the
maturing squall line, small bow-type structures are more common due
to frontal forcing.

Ahead of the front, a semi-persistent cluster of convection has been
focused across the upper TX Coastal Plain where LLJ appears to be
aiding this activity. Multiple storm mergers are contributing to an
upward evolving cluster that should propagate toward the lower
Sabine River Valley later this evening. While earlier supercell
structures are less discrete, strengthening shear will continue to
support supercells and tornadoes, especially with pre-frontal
storms.

..Darrow.. 10/31/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29239759 33919506 33909245 29249509 29239759

EoA: 22z HRRR -

Black circles in image are areas where HRRR is starting to initialize discreet supercells develop ahead and along squall line upon frontal passage.

Front has passed Brenham. Look for the front to arrive in NW Harris County within the hour and nearing Sugarland by 9 PM

NWS Houston re-tweet - video from earlier, NW of Katy

https://twitter.com/baldbear87/status/1 ... 0200145920

HGX cancels Tornado Watch for Brazos, Burleson, Houston, Madison Counties. Tornado Watch continues for other Counties in SE Texas

unome wrote:still looks ugly to me



https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md1604.html



Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Southeast TX to Arklatex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 416...

Valid 312314Z - 010015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 416 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues ahead of cold front across ww416.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent is spreading across central TX ahead
of progressive short-wave trough. This appears to be aiding frontal
surge as squall line matures along the boundary, advancing southeast
at roughly 25kt. While a few supercells may be embedded along the
maturing squall line, small bow-type structures are more common due
to frontal forcing.

Ahead of the front, a semi-persistent cluster of convection has been
focused across the upper TX Coastal Plain where LLJ appears to be
aiding this activity. Multiple storm mergers are contributing to an
upward evolving cluster that should propagate toward the lower
Sabine River Valley later this evening. While earlier supercell
structures are less discrete, strengthening shear will continue to
support supercells and tornadoes, especially with pre-frontal
storms.

..Darrow.. 10/31/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29239759 33919506 33909245 29249509 29239759

Huge meso forming north of Beaumont.

Some of those mini-cells ahead of the squall line could spin up something weak.

Our storms have frightened many of our TRICK OR TREATERS tonight but we have had a few wet ghosts and goblins come by. So far everyone has been safe and happy. It's currently raining cats and dogs.

I'm wishing this weather board a Happy Halloween.

October 2018 is about done. Be safe.

The cell coming in near western part of The Woodlands needs to be watched for rotation.

The squall line is almost starting to look more like a mesoscale convective system than a typical linear squall line.

8:30 PM Update from Jeff:

Slow moving band of heavy rainfall extends from The Woodlands to Katy and is moving toward the SE at 10-15mph.

Rainfall totals in the last 2-3 hours have averaged 2-3 inches over NW Harris, Waller, and SW Montgomery Counties. This is result in rises on area creeks in these areas. Little Cypress Creek at Becker Rd has risen to within 3 ft of bankfull and additional rainfall over the upper portions of Little Cypress Creek will likely result in this portion of the creek reaching bankfull this evening.

Due to the slow motion of this line, additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches on top of what has already fallen is possible. Think most of the larger creeks (Cypress, Spring, ect) will easily be able to handle this rainfall, bu upper Little Cypress Creek and later this evening lower South Mayde Creek (around Greenhouse) will likely rise toward or exceed bankfull. Impacts at both locations are fairly minor even just above bankfull.

Heavy rainfall will likely move back over areas already hard hit with 2-3 inches of rainfall late this afternoon from Missouri City to Westbury to TMC to Pasadena. Since that time, rainfall has ended allowing Willow Waterhole and Brays Bayou to crest and begin to fall, but this channels remain elevated. Additional heavy rainfall will likely result in new rises later this evening on these watersheds, but at this time no channel flooding is expected along these two watersheds.

Heavy rainfall rates will likely lead to street flooding as already experienced this afternoon on the south side of Harris County especially in areas of poor drainage and areas of construction.

We just lost power here right outside of Wharton.

Finally got to Houston. 9 hours after our original time. Now stuck in baggage claim because they aren't unloading anything until the weather settles down. Travel day from hell.

Cromagnum wrote:Finally got to Houston. 9 hours after our original time. Now stuck in baggage claim because they aren't unloading anything until the weather settles down. Travel day from hell.

Glad you made it to Houston safely. Be safe getting home - it's stormy. You will sleep like a baby in your own bed tonight

Great rain we had here tonight! Picked up 2.1” without any severe weather.