OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

[srainhoutx]

We certainly need to monitor tonight into tomorrow before the front passes. I continue see a very active weather pattern ahead and will continue to watch the next Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe carefully. Typically a slow moving frontal boundary and a coastal low creeping along the Upper Texas Coast spells a potential heavy rainfall event. Stay tuned.

[Cpv17]

Just wanted to report that I finally got a good rain at the house. We’ve received about 1.2” so far today.

[srainhoutx]

Friday evening briefing from Jeff:

Short term model guidance is afternoon has been trending toward an increasing threat for heavy rainfall for this evening into the overnight period mainly west of I-45 and south of I-10.

The HRRR and a few of the other high resolution models have been showing this potential, but thus far radar indicates that cell motions remain fairly rapid from the coast northward through Fort Bend and into Waller and Austin Counties. Additional activity continues to develop in a very moist air mass with PWS of 2.0-2.2 inches along and west of I-45 and this will likely persist well into the overnight hours.

Will continue to monitor radar trends for any significant changes, but at this time, feel the threat for any significant flooding remains on the lower side. Should any sustained training banding begin to develop, then the flash flood threat would increase.

[Texaspirate11]

A 4.0 Earthquake NE of Amarillo this morning!

[Belmer]

Be worth keeping an eye on Monday & Tuesdays forecast as the moisture from the tropical systems in the Pacific looks to create some potential high QPFs across I-10 from San Antonio to our neck of the woods. Wouldn't be terrible if it verified as it would keep the heaviest of the rains south of where places don't need it anymore (Austin/Hill Country) and northern TX up in Dallas region should stay much drier this go-around.

1-3 inches looks like a good bet at this time, but looking at latest trends, we could be dealing with higher totals in isolated areas. Much will depend on the exact track and even strength of both TS Willa and TS Vicente. Either way, don't expect to see any sunshine first half of next week as both Monday and Tuesday (and potentially Wednesday) are looking dreary/wet. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s through the first half of the week.

[snowman65]

today's weather = yuck

[Texaspirate11]

WELCOME SUNday! Good to see that orb up in the sky today!!!!!!!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

After a brief break in the soggy weather pattern…rains return early this week.

Upper air pattern remains fairly locked in place with a series of cold fronts…one of which passed across the area yesterday afternoon allowing a drier air mass to spread across the area. As the surface high pressure begins to shift eastward over the next 24-36 hours a coastal trough will develop and spread moisture back inland across SE TX. Additionally, the sub-tropical jet stream will align over the region helping to add lift and moisture from the Pacific. Hard to pin point which day may have the greatest rain chances, but expect rain chances to start increasing on Monday and remain elevated into at least Wednesday.

A couple features to monitor for the middle of the week will be current tropical system Willa and Vicente off the Mexican coast as booth look to get caught in the upper level trough over the southern plains and at least some moisture brought northeastward into TX by the middle of the week. Depending on how these feature track and how much of their moisture makes it across the higher mountains of MX will likely determine what if any additional heavy rain develop over parts of TX by the middle of the week.

Rainfall amounts of the next 2-4 days will average 1-2 inches with isolated higher totals especially near the coast and offshore.

[DoctorMu]

A strange, bright yellow orb has been spotted in the southern sky in College Station, mysteriously following a slow parabolic motion in the heavens over the course of the past 3 hours. This orb is reportedly producing significant radiant heat. Radiation from the high unusual meteorological event and advection after last night's from appear to be drying slightly the upper surface of the soggy soil after 10.35 inches of rain so far this month.

NOAA and the NWS will continue to investigate the curious phenomenon and its ramifications on the current weather and sensible forecast. NOAA spokesmen released a statement, assuring the public not to panic, and this rare occurrence won't be repeated for many days. They advise citizens not to directly stare at the orb, and at worst it will disappear into the western horizon about 6:30 pm.

[Cpv17]

Someone in Texas is bound to get a deluge with this. I’m not sure how the models are being so conservative with qpf totals. Doesn’t make any sense to me. I mean just look at the track and strength of this hurricane

[Ptarmigan]

Someone in Texas is bound to get a deluge with this. I’m not sure how the models are being so conservative with qpf totals. Doesn’t make any sense to me. I mean just look at the track and strength of this hurricane

Code: Select all

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220232
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Willa has continued to rapidly intensify this evening.  Satellite
images show a well-defined circular eye with a surrounding ring of
cold cloud tops that are near -80 deg C over the southeastern
quadrant.  The initial intensity is set to 125 kt, which is near the
latest Dvorak ADT estimates from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin.  Willa has strengthened at an incredible rate since
genesis, intensifying from a tropical depression to a category 4
hurricane in less than 48 hours.

Willa is gradually turning toward the right, with the initial motion
estimated to be 340/6 kt.  The hurricane is expected to turn
northward on Monday as it moves around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge to the east, followed by a faster northeastward
motion Monday night and Tuesday when a shortwave trough approaches
the system.  The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.  On the
forecast track, Willa is expected to move over Las Islas Marias on
Tuesday and then move inland over southwestern and west-central
Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

The hurricane has certainty taken advantage of the near ideal
environmental conditions and since these conditions will persist a
little longer, some additional strengthening is shown in the short
term.  However, some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to
eyewall replacement cycles.  The models then show a gradual increase
in shear and a decrease in available moisture around 24 hours, and
these factors should cause a slow weakening trend. Regardless,
Willa is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane, bringing multiple
life-threatening hazards to the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is
forecast after the system moves inland and interacts with the
mountainous terrain.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high
end of the model guidance through dissipation.

Key Messages:

1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
Islas Marias and the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Tuesday or
Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge and flash flooding
along with damaging hurricane-force winds. A Hurricane Warning is
in effect for these areas, and residents should rush preparations to
completion to protect life and property and follow any advice given
by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 17.7N 107.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 18.6N 107.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 19.7N 107.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 20.7N 107.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 22.1N 106.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 26.2N 101.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 0232.shtml

The forecast model has Willa as a near Category 5 hurricane in 12 hours. I would not be surprised if it is a Category 5 hurricane.

[don]

Some of the 0z models look to be playing catch-up, they are trending more aggressive with the rain from Willa, especially the NAM fwiw.

[BlueJay]

Have lived in Texas for nearly 4 decades, not sure if I've ever seen this many rainy days in central Texas. August was brutally hot with 23 days above 100 degrees, and only one rain event. September started off with a 100 degree day, then the rains came on Sept. 2nd.

Over the next 48 days (Sept. 2nd to Oct. 18th) Camp Mabry in ATX has recorded moisture in 37 of those days.

September had only 3 days of 1" or more (1.28, 1.35, 1.65) Total rain for September was 7.96 inches.
October has only had 2 days of 1" or more (1.48, 1.65) Current total rain for October is 6.37 inches.

There's rain in the forecast for the next 7 days. As October ends, Austin might see rain in 80% of the time over a 2 month period. Would be curious to know if that's ever happened. Can maybe see it happening in Feb/Mar time period, but not Sept/Oct.

Folks in Austin are under a BOIL WATER warning due to the rain/flooding that may have caused too much silt to get into the water supply. Willa might not help this situation.

[unome]

Willa's recon flight had to turn around

[Cromagnum]

Isn't that very near where Hurricane Patricia hit?

[Cpv17]

The NAM has quite a bit of rain for us here in SETX. It’s saying some areas could get 6-7”.

[Texaspirate11]

Right now, Willa is the strongest hurricane to hit this part of Mexico

[Katdaddy]

Light rain moving across SE TX this morning will decrease this afternoon. Rain chances increase Wednesday as the remnants of EPAC Hurricane Willa move across TX. The upcoming weekend will be dry with lots of sun.

[snowman65]

Latest GFS showing a very strong cold front Nov 3-4 time frame....Does GFS take bribes to hang on to that?

[srainhoutx]

Looking forward to a beautiful SE Texas Fall weekend. Looking like we will finally break out of this gloomy dreary weather pattern late on Thursday.