OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

[BlueJay]

I'm happy to report that the sun is trying to peek out of the clouds. Makes it not so gloomy and dreary.

[Cpv17]

We’ve received 1.9” here so far with more to come tonight and tomorrow! Awesome!

[snowman65]

first half of November looks more like September...hope the 2nd half is at least seasonal.

[Cpv17]

It’s looking like SETX will only get about .25-1” with the remnants of Willa. Heavier totals of 2-3” will be found up around the DFW area. I find it very hard to believe that as strong as Willa was the qpf totals are forecasted to be so low. Makes no sense to me.

[Katdaddy]

The remnants of Willa will move across TX today as a low pressure area develops near the coast. Rain and a few thunderstorms can be expected from this afternoon through early Thursday morning with widespread 1-2” rains. Some areas near the coast may see isolated higher totals. A beautiful weekend is on the way.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Widespread rainfall will develop this afternoon and continue into the overnight hours ending early Thursday

Hurricane Willa made landfall along the western coast of Mexico yesterday evening as a category 3 hurricane and has weakened rapidly into a tropical depression while crossing the higher terrain over central Mexico. Willa is currently located 75 miles ENE of Durango, Mexico and is moving NE at 25mph. High level moisture associated with this feature is rapidly spreading into TX from the SW ahead of an upper level trough over the southwestern US. A coastal surface low will be forming today along the upper TX coast in response to the approach of both the upper level vortex of Willa and the southwest US upper trough.

A combination of increasing lift, upper level divergence, increasing moisture, and the approach of the upper trough and vortex of Willa will result in a rapid increase in rain chance from late this morning into the overnight hours. The formation of the coastal low along the upper TX coast may result in a few strong or severe thunderstorms near the coast or just offshore, but at this time most inland areas look to just see rainfall with an isolated thunderstorms as the best instability will be near the coast and offshore.

With moisture levels increasing along with sustained lift, heavy rainfall will become possible late this afternoon and evening. Due to the fast forward motion of both Willa and the upper level trough, not looking at any sustained excessive rainfall potential, but widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches with higher totals of 3-4 inches are certainly possible. Much of the area will see 1-2 inches of rainfall and this on top of already saturated grounds and swollen rivers (Colorado, Brazos, and Trinity) does raise the flood risk. Think much of the area can handle the 1-2 inches expected without many problems, but will need to watch for areas that may see the higher totals, especially if those three river basins are impacted.

Willa and the upper level trough move quickly east of the area on Thursday with rainfall ending and decreasing clouds. Cloudy and rainy pattern of late comes to an end with upper level NW flow developing and a series of cold fronts that will keep the weather mild and dry into next week.

[Cpv17]

The CMC & Euro both have a pretty strong cold front coming through here around Nov. 2-3. The GFS says nada though.

[srainhoutx]

The CMC & Euro both have a pretty strong cold front coming through here around Nov. 2-3. The GFS says nada though.

The "New" GFS (FV3 GFS) becomes operational in January. Time to follow the latest updated version of the American Model. The New GFS suggests a robust cold core upper low sweeping across New Mexico and the Panhandle as we start November. Super Typhoon Yutu may play a role in our sensible weather as October ends and a new month begins. Watch the Northern latitudes of the North Pacific in the days ahead.

[DoctorMu]

The CMC & Euro both have a pretty strong cold front coming through here around Nov. 2-3. The GFS says nada though.

The front is on the 12z and 18z GFS runs now. Not as robust as on the Canadian model, but it's there.

[Katdaddy]

Flash Flood Warning has been issued for W Central Galveston and SE Brazoria Counties as heavy rain moves along the Upper TX Coast.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
604 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
West central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 800 PM CDT.

* At 602 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to
begin shortly. 3 to 4 inches of rain has fallen and another inch
or so will be possible by 700 PM.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lake Jackson, Alvin, Angleton, Santa Fe, northwestern Freeport,
Clute, Hitchcock, Richwood, Jones Creek, Danbury, Oyster Creek,
Liverpool and Chocolate Bayou

[Katdaddy]

Another Flash Flood Warning issued for NW Galveston, E Central Brazoria, and SE Harris County:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
745 PM CDT WED OCT 24 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
East central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 915 PM CDT.

* At 742 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have
already fallen and another inch or so of rain will be
possible. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southeastern Pasadena, League City, Texas City, La Porte,
Dickinson, La Marque, Santa Fe, Seabrook, Webster, Hitchcock,
Kemah, eastern Clear Lake, Nassau Bay, Taylor Lake Village, El
Lago, Shoreacres, Clear Lake Shores, Hillcrest, Liverpool and
Morgan`s Point.

[Ptarmigan]

Super Typhoon Yutu made landfall on Tinian Island in the Northern Mariana Island as a Category 5 storm.

Super Typhoon Yutu at peak.

[Cpv17]

Super Typhoon Yutu made landfall on Tinian Island in the Northern Mariana Island as a Category 5 storm.

Super Typhoon Yutu at peak.

That’s gotta be one of the most beautiful looking TC’s I’ve seen. It’s stacked beautifully and has impressive outflow. Wow!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yutu could be our Nuri... we already have a warm Npac and Yutu could recurve and really buckle the jet.

[Cpv17]

Yutu could be our Nuri... we already have a warm Npac and Yutu could recurve and really buckle the jet.

This is what I’m hoping for! Very well could happen. Would make for some interesting weather!

[BlueJay]

Sun sighting this afternoon! Very nice.

[Katdaddy]

Temps mostly in the low to mid 50s across SE TX this morning. A beautiful weekend on the way with mostly sunny skies. Temps will be cool in the morning and warm in the afternoon.

[tireman4]

Halloween Climatology

[Cpv17]

The Euro, GFS, & CMC all agree on a pretty big cold front around the Nov. 2-3 timeframe. Doesn’t look like much rain at the moment though.

[DoctorMu]

The Euro, GFS, & CMC all agree on a pretty big cold front around the Nov. 2-3 timeframe. Doesn’t look like much rain at the moment though.

12z models move it closer to Halloween, passing on Nov. 1-2 now. A little rain, but that's relative now.