OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

[srainhoutx]

A rather unsettled pattern shaping up during the first 10 Days of October. A very deep Western Trough looks to pump copious amounts of deep tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific and the Western Gulf throughout the Great Basin/Intermountain West and the Plains. Texas lies on the very strong Eastern Ridge suggesting inflow off the Western Gulf moves N and brings rounds of showers/storms, some possible severe this coming weekend into early next week across portions of the Northern half of Texas into the Plains. Cold air builds into the Greta Basin/Intermountain West from Western Canada, but have difficulty advancing S and E due to an unusually stout Upper Ridge over the East Coast of the United States. The guidance indicates this may be one the strongest October EC Ridge scenario not seen since the mid 80's and early 90's across that Region. It appears that after mid October we may see that first real shot of some cold modified Canadian air spill S across Texas. In the meantime, it looks like our wet weather regime holds tight.

[snowman65]

Well, so much for fall. Looks like a wash. Hopefully we can scrape up enough cooler weather to have salvage winter season.

[Cromagnum]

Sick of this weather. Hot & humid with rain every day, plus the delightful smell of rot in the air.

[snowman65]

You and me both. Not sure what to make of this fall. Havent even seen any love bugs which is REALLY strange. Not sure what that means but has to mean something. A friend of mine posted a picture a few weeks ago of a persimmon seed. Something about a spoon in it means a cold harsh winter and a fork means a warm winter. This one had a spoon in it. Sure hope sure didn't eat it because that one must have been rotten...lol.

[CrashTestDummy]

Sick of this weather. Hot & humid with rain every day, plus the delightful smell of rot in the air.

Don't forget the subtle notes of mold!

[CrashTestDummy]

You and me both. Not sure what to make of this fall. Havent even seen any love bugs which is REALLY strange. Not sure what that means but has to mean something. A friend of mine posted a picture a few weeks ago of a persimmon seed. Something about a spoon in it means a cold harsh winter and a fork means a warm winter. This one had a spoon in it. Sure hope sure didn't eat it because that one must have been rotten...lol.

We've had a few, but yeah, not the clouds of them we usually get. I think most have drowned. The mosquitoes are love-bug-sized, though!!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well, so much for fall. Looks like a wash. Hopefully we can scrape up enough cooler weather to have salvage winter season.

Lol, what? We have 2 months of Fall left and the long range is showing our first norther the week of the 15th. And for giggles, Euro weeklies are showing snow in central Texas in mid November.

Outside of the lows being a bit above avg, we are having normal daytime highs for late Sep and early Oct

[Cromagnum]

You and me both. Not sure what to make of this fall. Havent even seen any love bugs which is REALLY strange. Not sure what that means but has to mean something. A friend of mine posted a picture a few weeks ago of a persimmon seed. Something about a spoon in it means a cold harsh winter and a fork means a warm winter. This one had a spoon in it. Sure hope sure didn't eat it because that one must have been rotten...lol.

Had to look that up. https://www.almanac.com/content/predict ... immon-seed

[snowman65]

You and me both. Not sure what to make of this fall. Havent even seen any love bugs which is REALLY strange. Not sure what that means but has to mean something. A friend of mine posted a picture a few weeks ago of a persimmon seed. Something about a spoon in it means a cold harsh winter and a fork means a warm winter. This one had a spoon in it. Sure hope sure didn't eat it because that one must have been rotten...lol.

Had to look that up. https://www.almanac.com/content/predict ... immon-seed

There ya go! I tried to find something earlier but had not success....I hate forks and knives.....LOL

[tireman4]

September was a wet month

[srainhoutx]

Folks fretting over cool/cold weather on October 2nd need not worry too much. Cold/wintry weather is looking more and more likely as we get closer and closer to Thanksgiving and then December 1st. Some of the analogs I am inspecting as a possibility suggest we may see frequent bouts of cold and wintry mischief as Winter gets underway. Patience.

[unome]

wicked storm here, getting hail (pea size)

nice radar loop on this https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr/lsr.php

[BlueJay]

I'm hearing rumbles of thunder. We may get a taste of that wicked storm.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Folks fretting over cool/cold weather on October 2nd need not worry too much. Cold/wintry weather is looking more and more likely as we get closer and closer to Thanksgiving and then December 1st. Some of the analogs I am inspecting as a possibility suggest we may see frequent bouts of cold and wintry mischief as Winter gets underway. Patience.

Warms my heart to hear that!

[snowman65]

Folks fretting over cool/cold weather on October 2nd need not worry too much. Cold/wintry weather is looking more and more likely as we get closer and closer to Thanksgiving and then December 1st. Some of the analogs I am inspecting as a possibility suggest we may see frequent bouts of cold and wintry mischief as Winter gets underway. Patience.

Warms my heart to hear that!

The word "warm" is not allowed after Oct 1....

[CrashTestDummy]

Folks fretting over cool/cold weather on October 2nd need not worry too much. Cold/wintry weather is looking more and more likely as we get closer and closer to Thanksgiving and then December 1st. Some of the analogs I am inspecting as a possibility suggest we may see frequent bouts of cold and wintry mischief as Winter gets underway. Patience.

NO cold and wintry stuff!! We have citrus!!

[djmike]

Weve gone an entire day without one post. Must be a some pretty non-eventful weather over the next week or so.
ANY sight of a possible cool fromt any time soon?

[snowman65]

Weve gone an entire day without one post. Must be a some pretty non-eventful weather over the next week or so.
ANY sight of a possible cool fromt any time soon?

Well, we have had 2 straight days with no rain. Maybe everyones been outside..lol....BTW, we will be paying dearly for those 2 days at some point...

[srainhoutx]

Highly active weather period unfolding for the weekend into next week. A very deep Great Basin/Intermountain West Trough funneling deep tropical moisture from the Gulf and the NW Caribbean Sea where an area of tropical disturbed weather continues to fester. Currently the NHC gives the NW Caribbean disturbance a 30% chance of development over the next 5 Days. The overnight Ensemble guidance is becoming s bit more aggressive with some development in the Southern/Central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend into to next week as upper level winds relax and pressure falls across the Gulf. We typically are safe from any tropical troubles in the NW Gulf this late in the year, but with a stalled boundary to the N and a prolonged onshore flow as well as being on the Western periphery of the Big Mid Atlantic Ridge, we might want to monitor the weather in our backyard a bit more closely.

[tireman4]

To quote our own Long Range Pro Met, Srain, Climo will dictate in the end...fronts WILL come...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041603
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1103 AM CDT Thu Oct 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of changes with the forecast for the update. Things are
expected to pick up once again later this afternoon when we reach
convective temperatures. Activity could be scattered as given the
lack of a distinct boundary. Going grids look good. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT Thu Oct 4 2018/

High pressure ridge will continue to be the main feature today.
Like yesterday, very few isolated showers were observed moving
northward across the local waters. No rainfall was detected inland
during the night and early morning hours. A very similar weather
pattern from the previous days will occur today with showers
developing across the coastal counties during the late morning
hours and expand northwards towards the central counties in the
afternoon. Shower activity is expected to dissipate after sunset.

Although model guidance continues to show the high pressure
moving towards the Carolinas during the weekend, the displacement
is occuring at a slower pace. The 250-500MB Height model guidance
looks to have delayed the timing of the trough for SE TX. The
trough now shows amplification as it moves across the Great Basin
and Rockies by the end of the weekend into early next week and
digs more south expanding across SE TX around early to mid next
week. Because the displacement of the high pressure is fairly
slow, southerly flow is expected to entrain moisture from the
Gulf from this weekend through at least Tuesday. Guidance also
suggest, PWAT values ranging between 2.0-2.2 in (especially Tue),
good CAPE values (mainly the 18-00Z timeframe), as well as
positive moisture and temperature advection during this period. In
general, the overall weather dynamics supports the potential for
shower and thunderstorm activity across SE TX. Keep in mind, this
is at the end of the forecast period and variations to the model
will occur for the long term period.

Side Note: Some of the models are indicating an area of low
pressure or tropical disturbance moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico by mid next week. At this time, the track and direct
impacts of this feature cannot be determined. Please continue to
monitor your local NWS forecast. For more information refer to
the TROPICS section below.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 73 88 73 88 / 20 10 30 0 40
Houston (IAH) 89 75 87 74 87 / 40 10 40 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 85 79 84 78 84 / 30 20 40 20 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$