SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[Cpv17]

I noticed the infamous "pink" color was back on qpf. Isn't that the new color they had to create for Harvey because Harvey was "off the charts" on rainfall?

The WPC broke out the pink color too with Harvey.

[Andrew]

We have to be careful with the forecasted precip because if this system remains sheared and relatively disorganized a lot more precipitation will filter north into central and southeast Texas. WPC seems to highly reflect the ECMWF, but even with that said it seems a little conservative. As usual, a more organized system would result in higher totals near the center.

[mcheer23]

We have to be careful with the forecasted precip because if this system remains sheared and relatively disorganized a lot more precipitation will filter north into central and southeast Texas. WPC seems to highly reflect the ECMWF, but even with that said it seems a little conservative. As usual, a more organized system would result in higher totals near the center.

Very conservative.

[Katdaddy]

Judging by that, I wouldn’t be too concerned about anything. Doesn’t look like much will come from this.

Be very careful about not being too concerned. HGX just issued a Youtube briefing and specifically stated that there are far too many unknowns to dismiss anything from the disturbance just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, including it possibly becoming a Hurricane. Jeff is preaching to get your Hurricane Kits in order quickly and get your supplies replenished in every Update he issues. No one is alarmed at this time, but ANYTIME we have a tropical trouble maker in our backyard, it shouldn't be taken lightly or dismissed easily.

Very well stated by Srain earlier this afternoon. This is the time be thinking ahead and have your plans ready to go if needed later this week. Looking a little better on satellite this evening.

[Cpv17]

NHC still has a 70% chance for development with the 8pm update. Pressures are definitely falling over the Yucatan so it’s trying to get it’s act together. Still too much shear though.

[Scott747]

The ull has definitely weakened throughout the day So shear is becoming less of an issue and conditions 'should' become more favorable up to 'landfall.'

It's a broad system right now and will take time to work down to the surface. Next 12-18 hrs will tell us if this is going to make a run at becoming a named storm.

[Ptarmigan]

Unrelated, but the HPC map brought out the infamous ' pink ' color for Florence in the Carolinas. It is going to be a rough one over there!

Even if 95L goes to south TX, many times se TX sees northern feeder bands set up shop and they create funnels and training storms. Gotta be prepared for this system!

Tropical Storm Erin (2007) and Tropical Storm Arlene (1993) come to mind.

[davidiowx]

Is it me or is 95L not looking so good right now...

[Cpv17]

Is it me or is 95L not looking so good right now...

It’s lost a lot of deep convection over the past few hours. I know that much.

[jasons2k]

Is it me or is 95L not looking so good right now...

It’s lost a lot of deep convection over the past few hours. I know that much.

DMIN. Very common in weak systems.

[Cpv17]

Is it me or is 95L not looking so good right now...

It’s lost a lot of deep convection over the past few hours. I know that much.

DMIN. Very common in weak systems.

Yeah. DMAX in the morning will fire it back up. I expect it to get its act together a bit tomorrow.

[unome]

wallpaper-worthy - a dizzying week in the Tropics

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm3HT8VU8AE8hzs.jpg

[Cpv17]

The 0z CMC is bullish with Isaac and it undergoes RI in the Gulf and goes into the mid TX coast. Pure fantasy land though so wouldn’t put much stock into it at this time.

[Scott747]

Looks like the hurricane models are being run for the 0z suite. At least the hmon is....

[Cpv17]

The HWRF is much further north with 95L fwiw.

[Scott747]

Background of the 0z hwrf Flo run has a weak but strengthening system moving in around Port A to San Antonio bay.

[Scott747]

The HWRF is much further north with 95L fwiw.

Correct.

I was looking at the HWRF-P

[Cpv17]

HWRF has landfall near Palacios as a 996mb storm and has plenty of rain with it.

[Texaspirate11]

HGX DISCO
As for the tropical disturbance near the tip of the Yucatan. Dry
air and shear has done a job on it and deep convection has nearly
been wiped out. Convection may be trying to initiate closer to the
low level center and not displaced by so far. GFS/NAM still
showing a system struggling to form with the dry air impacts as it
moves toward the Texas coast Thursday night/Friday.

[Scott747]

Well if the HWRF is right it does show literally nothing for the next 10 hrs before thunderstorm development starts firing up.