SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[srainhoutx]

The ECMWF is the strongest run yet suggesting a TS into Baffin Bay.

[javakah]

The latest run of FV3-GFS is suggesting Isaac hitting Louisiana, then heading more westerly, skirting just north of Houston.

Still a long ways out though. Just have to keep an eye on Isaac as well as 95L.

[Katdaddy]

Another round of heavy rain this morning along the Upper TX Coast.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
508 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 700 AM CDT.

* At 507 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. 2 to 6 inches of rain have
fallen in the last 3 hours. Due to rainfall in low lying and poor
drainage areas in the warning area...flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southeastern Pasadena, northeastern League City, Galveston
Causeway, Texas City, La Porte, Dickinson, La Marque, Santa Fe,
Seabrook, Hitchcock, Kemah, Taylor Lake Village, El Lago, Bayou
Vista, Clear Lake Shores, Tiki Island, San Leon, Bacliff and Kemah
Boardwalk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

[Katdaddy]

Heavy rains along the Upper TX Coast with another 1.6” already for the day at the house. Another round will be possible this afternoon as the Flash Flood Watch for the Upper TX Coast continues until 6PM today. A Flash Flood Warning is currently in effect for NW Galveston and SE Harris County until 7AM.

Invest 95L remains at 60% chance for tropical development during the next 5 days as it moves across the GOM toward the TX Coast. Additional heavy rains will be possible for the Middle and Upper TX Coast Friday and Saturday regardless of tropical development.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch has been extended until 600pm today for areas generally along and south of US 59.

Heavy rainfall has once again developed over the area this morning mainly along the coast with Texas City having received between 4-6 inches of rainfall since midnight. Coastal trough is in place along the beaches and this is helping to focus much of the heavy rainfall right along the coast and offshore. Some of this rainfall has been pushing northward and into the Galveston Bay area and into SE Harris and southern Liberty Counties but is generally weakening as it moves northward.

A slow moving upper level trough over W TX will move little today so expect surface features to remain nearly stationary across the area. With deep convection near/off the coast this morning, expect only a slow migration inland of showers and thunderstorms and feel the best flash flood threat will remain across the coastal tier counties through the morning hours.

Additional rainfall today will average 1-2 inches with isolated higher totals, especially across the coastal counties and beach areas and this could cause some flooding in areas that have already experienced heavy rainfall this morning.

Overall pattern changes little through Wednesday…so expect another round of early morning showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall again a possibility especially near the coast.

[srainhoutx]

Unfortunately we a stuck in a very wet tropical pattern with no real end in sight at this time.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff regarding 95L:

Tropical cyclone formation remains possible for the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week.

Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and have hurricane plans and kits in place.

There has been little change in organization of the tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea overnight. Sporadic deep convection continues to develop in an near what is most likely a mid level low pressure system. Thus far there have not been any surface observations to support any surface low pressure formation. Upper level winds remain fairly strong out of the WSW/W as the system is on the eastern side of a weakening upper level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. As this upper trough weakens and the tropical wave axis moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico upper level winds will become somewhat more favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone.

The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models either maintain an open tropical wave or attempt to close off a surface low pressure system along the wave axis in the Thursday and Friday period as the feature moves NW toward the TX coast. It is unclear at this point if the system will be able to close off a surface low, but development chances increase as it nears the TX coast late this week…so things can and will likely change quickly on Thursday and Friday.

Regardless of actual development of a closed low pressure system the main impacts appear to be heavy rainfall and potential flooding. Wet and soggy grounds are already in place over much of coastal TX and additional rainfall is likely both today and Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture with the tropical feature will begin to arrive on the TX coast late Friday with bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds spreading along the TX coast Friday and into Saturday.

At the moment it is still too early to discuss specific impacts, but the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding late this week into this weekend along the entire TX coast is increasing. For now will leave tides, winds, and seas alone and await better trends in any center track and intensity of the feature. Even an open wave axis will likely produce 20-30kts across the NW Gulf waters. This could be a system where much of the adverse conditions will occur to the north and east of any actual surface center.

Forecast confidence toward the end of the week and weekend is low and residents along the TX coast should closely monitor forecasts over the next few days for changes

[djmike]

WOw. Looks like it made a shift northward.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
802 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2018

GALVESTON TX-CHAMBERS TX-BRAZORIA TX-HARRIS TX-
802 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT.

* AT 801 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN CAUSING URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. LOW LYING AREAS ARE SLOWLY DRAINING. PONDING AND WATER ON
AREA ROADS ARE STILL IMPACTING TRAVEL IN PARTS OF GALVESTON COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA, LEAGUE CITY, BAYTOWN, GALVESTON CAUSEWAY, GALVESTON
ISLAND WEST END, TEXAS CITY, EASTERN FRIENDSWOOD, LA PORTE, DEER
PARK, LAKE JACKSON, ANGLETON, DICKINSON, LA MARQUE, SANTA FE,
FREEPORT, SEABROOK, CLUTE, WEBSTER, HITCHCOCK AND SWEENY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 INCH IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.

[tireman4]

HGX Radar...it is wet out there folks...drive carefully...

[tireman4]

This is my late Summer PSA. For all you newbies, welcome. We appreciate you stopping by. For the seasoned vets, it is that time of the year. As this event ( whatever "it" is) unfolds, there will be questions. Our pro mets, who volunteer to be here ( Srain, Wxman 57, Andrew, Belmer, Mcheer, Jeff, Brooks, David and Blake) along with our amazing amateurs, will answer your questions, but you must be patient. They are busy with forecasting and other items. Remember, whatever happens, they can help. Also, we will try to get you as much information as we can with whatever comes up. Just remain weather aware and be vigilant. This is good advice for the Winter, Spring, Summer or Fall.

[tireman4]

HGX Flood Watches and Warnings

[unome]

sunrise in the BOC

NDBC
Location: 22.120N 93.96W
Date: Tue, 11 Sep 2018 13:00:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and rising
Air Temperature: 83.8 F
Dew Point: 77.2 F
Water Temperature: 85.5 F

[Scott747]

WOw. Looks like it made a shift northward.

That's because instead of the focal point being the wave axis down by Belize, it's now shifting more towards the mlc closer to the yucatan channel.

[srainhoutx]

[jasons2k]

It's quite a bit further north than it was yesterday, is it not?

[srainhoutx]

58 years ago today, the last Category 4 Hurricane to impact SE Texas came onshore in Port O'Connor. Major Hurricane Carla brought its 22ft storm surge into Galveston and Galveston Bay, over 150 reported tornadoes and near 18 inches of rainfall measured at Danvang. That Hurricane would forever change my life an began my passion for all things weather.

Also, Happy Birthday to Dr. Neil Frank. I think this is his 87th. It's also the 58th Anniversary of the beginning his career at the National Hurricane Center as a Tropical Forecaster.

[snowman65]

After the last 3-4 years It think we can officially call September the "monsoon" season for these parts....at least it seams that way.

[Texaspirate11]

9 inches of rain in Texas City this morning. Classes canceled.
I am keeping a weary eye put on that blob...with water temps at 85...not good...I remember Humberto

[mcheer23]

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean
Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better
organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing
strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force
Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.