SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[don]

May want to get used to the rain as indications are that we may have a wet El Nino this winter...

[Cpv17]

The rain has just been a few miles to the east of me for the past two days and yet there’s another batch of storms that just fired up a few miles east of me yet again.

[Katdaddy]

A narrow line of thunderstorms moving across Brazoria County

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1139 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

TXZ213-237-238-337-338-230515-
Inland Brazoria TX-Inland Galveston TX-Coastal Galveston TX-
Inland Harris TX-Coastal Brazoria TX-
1139 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

...Strong Storms Moving THrough Brazoria County...

At 1138 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Liverpool, or 7 miles southwest of Alvin, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 35 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pearland, southwestern League City, Friendswood, Alvin, Dickinson,
Santa Fe, Manvel, Iowa Colony, Hillcrest, LSPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTiverpool, Bonney and Chocolate Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

[unome]

another soggy morning

• 

• Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 887
  NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
  337 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018
  
  Areas affected... Eastern TX... Southwest AR... Northwest LA
  
  Concerning... Heavy rainfall... Flash flooding possible
  
  Valid 230736Z - 231336Z
  
  Summary... Moderate to heavy showers are expected to continue across eastern Texas and parts of adjacent states through 8:30 am local time ahead of a quasi-stationary front. This additional rainfall will only exacerbate ongoing flooding issues over northeast Texas.
  
  Discussion... Regional Doppler radar imagery scattered intense showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow moving surface low over northeast Texas. There have been some reports of greater than 2 inches of rainfall observed since midnight. Ascent is being aided by a nearby 500mb shortwave, converging 850mb flow, and modest right entrance upper jet dynamics.
  
  The anomalously high PW values ahead of the slow moving cold front across eastern Texas is indicative of a tropical airmass with deep warm cloud layers and efficient rainfall processes. PW values on the order of 2.2 to 2.4 inches remain over this region ahead of a stalled frontal boundary as reflected in recent GPS data and RAP model analysis.
  
  An aggravating factor in the flooding potential is the very low flash flood guidance values over the northern portion of the MPD area in northeast Texas owing to the heavy rainfall over the past 2 days. The latest suite of high res guidance now has a strong signal for narrow swaths of 2 to 4 inch rainfall maxima extending from the greater Houston area to west of Shreveport, which is indicative of training convective activity. Since the highest QPF maxima are likely over areas with higher flash flood guidance south of Interstate 20, flash flooding is considered possible.
  
  D. Hamrick
  
  ATTN... WFO... FWD... HGX...LCH... OUN... SHV... TSA...
  
  ATTN... RFC... ABRFC... LMRFC... WGRFC...

• 

[unome]

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/
https://twitter.com/NWSHouston
https://mobile.weather.gov/
https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
418 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis indicates a broad surface low situated across east Texas early this morning. North-south oriented band of shra/tstms associated with a weak frontal boundary is gradually pushing eastward and should mostly be in LCH's CWA in the next couple hours. Drier llvl airmass will be filtering in behind this boundary today which should limit much in the way of precip after mid morning. Remnants of the front should begin the process of washing out on Monday followed by a return of onshore winds and deeper Gulf moisture Tue & Wed. Rain chances will increase once again as this occurs. Models are again showing slightly deeper troughiness and a cold front moving into the state toward midweek. Overall support for a push thru southeast Texas still doesn't appear all that favorable at this time. That being said, it's not uncommon for guidance to have a tough time with our first couple fropas and will have run-to-run consistency issues. It does appear wet wx will persist ahead of it with healthy moisture levels remaining pooled over the region. Expect fairly good chances for shra/tstms each day (mainly diurnal type) from midweek onward. 47

&&

.MARINE...
With the upper pattern becoming a bit more favorable... we should see the weak Pacific cold front push into the western half of our marine waters this morning. The light W/NW winds in its wake will likely be brief (through this afternoon)... with onshore winds returning across the region tonight as the boundary washes out. The mostly light/moderate S/SE winds to prevail through much of the upcoming week. While there was some long-range models that hinted at the possible passage of another cold front around mid-week, these latest runs are now not as confident with this as the upper ridge appears to hold across the region. However, with the onshore flow persisting, a series of upper level disturbances along with deepening tropical moisture could lead to the development unsettled weather for much of the week. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
The line of SHRA/TSRA associated with the weak Pacific cold front is continuing to move east out of the CWA this morning. In its wake, we will be seeing a mix of MVFR/IFR CIGS through mid morning. VFR conditions expected by this afternoon. With the wet grounds, light winds and mostly clear skies tonight, will be expecting the development of MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS tonight through early Mon morning. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 70 88 72 90 / 10 20 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 86 72 89 73 90 / 20 10 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 88 78 88 / 30 10 20 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX... NONE.
GM... NONE.

&&

$$

[CrashTestDummy]

1.3” overnight in our corner of the swamp. Still have standing water in the yard. Pups are going to have fun this morning.

[Texaspirate11]

Was so awesome to fall asleep with that late night storm that swept thru....added another inch to the ol' rain gauge.
My flowers are singing with happy....

[Katdaddy]

Today will be another dry day across much of SE TX with a few isolated showers along the immediate coast. Increasing moisture will result in the return of showers and thunderstorms beginning tomorrow through the rest of the week. Another weak cool front will front push into N portions of SE TX this week. The tropics remain active but no threat for the GOM.

[Cpv17]

Another 1-2” appear pretty likely this coming week! That’s fine with me cuz all I got the past few days was .15” while some of you others got over 5”. Hopefully this time I’ll get at least an inch.

[Katdaddy]

Back to a wet pattern for SE TX as showers and thunderstorms are moving onshore of the Upper TX Coast this morning with locally heavy rain. The rain and thunderstorms will spread inland today. Expect more of the same as a front moves into SE TX Wednesday evening and night. Continued rain and thunderstorm chances through Friday.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight Global and mesoscale models have come into better agreement suggesting that cold front we've been chatting about will clear the Coast Wednesday night. A surface low is expected to organize and ride NE along that boundary over our Coastal waters increasing rain chances late week. It does appear the front may return as a warm front this weekend as a robust upper air disturbance rides across Texas further enhancing rain chances Friday/Saturday and possibly into Sunday.

[snowman65]

GFS not seeing any type of fronts as far out as it goes (384 hr)...hmm....Are we looking at November until we get our first fall front? BTW...it's raining LOL

[srainhoutx]

The Cold Front is advancing S across the Panhandle and nearing the Permian Basin at this hour. There was a 15 degree difference between Amarillo and Lubbock with much lower dew points and gusty Northerly winds behind the front. A strong upper trough continues to dig into the Central Plains as a shortwave over the Four Corners slowly moves East into Texas tomorrow further assisting the front to push S and E and clear the Coast sometime Wednesday night/Thursday morning. It appears several upper air disturbances will ride along the SW flow aloft keeping us cloudy and showery Thursday into Friday. There is some uncertainty regarding the sensible weekend weather. The GFS is aggressive with rain chance as an upper low closes off and meanders over Texas. The 12Z ECMWF is more progressive with that upper air feature and significantly drier. For those wondering about these fronts and their strength, remember we were not expecting a front to clear the Region last weekend and one did. The door has opened for these Fall fronts to push through and as temperature continue to fall across Canada and the Northern Plains, stronger fronts will follow. Changes are brewing in the Medium and Extended Range as the MJO has responded and looks to be highly amplified in Phase 8/1 which typically mean the active weather will be on our side of the World. Watch the EPAC and possibly the Western Atlantic Basin to wake up, tropically speaking and fingers crossed we do not have to wait much longer before that first real 'Blue Norther' is on the horizon.

[jasons2k]

The curse has been broken! I'm one of the few places to get a decent shower today.

Lubbock was a great place to be this time of year. Those fall fronts were always quite refreshing up there.

[Katdaddy]

Showers and thunderstorms moving across the Upper TX Coast again this morning. This will continue through out the day as a weak frontal boundary pushed into SE TX. This boundary looks to push to the coast overnight with additional showers and thunderstorms with some locally heavy rains.

[srainhoutx]

Nearing 1 inch of rain since 7:00 AM in NW Harris County with some lightning as well.

[unome]

Question for SRain, or anyone else who may know the answer

The QPF images seem to have much higher res detail lately over more parts of the US, much like the western US has for some time. Are they changing the method they use to determine QPF?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf

[Cpv17]

Nearing 1 inch of rain since 7:00 AM in NW Harris County with some lightning as well.

You seem to be in a sweet spot lately for rain. We haven’t really had any measurable rainfall here in about 10 days or so now, but that should change later today.

[CrashTestDummy]

And so far, .41" of rain this morning in northern Brazoria County this morning. That's on top of the ~1/2" of rain we got yesterday. The dyemaker's puffballs and other 'shrooms are having a heyday this week!