SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It can rain every day but 9/7 and 9/8 in CS. Please dont rain for Clemson weekend.

[Scott747]

Must say the modeling is becoming a tad interesting.

Plenty of Euro ensembles bring the some energy to the WGOM. 18z gfs has energy moving towards the mid and upper Texas coast next weekend.

All in the long range but model watching over the next few days is warranted...

[Texaspirate11]

EURO shows 4 storms coming off Africa...in September hopefully they'll recurve
Wish I could post the map but I always have trouble....

[Ptarmigan]

We are entering the more active part of the hurricane season.

[srainhoutx]

There has been a lot of chatter the past few days about the model storm entering the Gulf next week so let's investigate what those computer models are possibly "sniffing out". MIMIC does show a tropical wave breaking across the Caribbean Islands this morning with one twave entering the Eastern Caribbean Sea and another further N that should cross the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas.



Currently the Weather Prediction Center believes this Northern wave will be nothing more than another inverted trough like we are currently experiencing. Another inverted trough passes by our Area Labor Day Weekend and the wave that the models attempt to spin up is a inverted trough crossing S Florida and nearing the Northern Gulf on Day 7 of the WPC Surface Charts. Remember the models struggle with TC Genesis, so take those ominous computer graphics with a grain of salt until we see thunderstorms converging and organizing. If that begin to occur, then we can monitor a bit more closely.

[Texaspirate11]

Thank you!

[Belmer]

Nothing to get worked up about at the moment, but while the Euro and GFS show some 'energy' heading our way late next week, the NAM is also trying to spin something up in the central and eastern Gulf come this Saturday. Time only goes out till Saturday afternoon, but regardless of development, a slug of moisture looks to head to the Louisiana and SETX coast early next week (Monday/Tuesday) then we will need to monitor if any development occurs with those waves coming off of Africa as that could bring more enhanced moisture heading into next weekend.

For what its worth, shear is fairly well relaxed in the Gulf right now and shear is forecasted to relax in the Caribbean by the weekend. SSTs have also had a rise off the coast of Africa, in the Atlantic up to the Caribbean where not too long ago water temps were well below average. Last, a stout HP off the Carolina coast looks to stay in place through the next 7-10 days giving a general good steering flow for any tropical moisture to work its way through the Caribbean/Bahamas into the Gulf instead of curving up the East coast. Good news for them as that HP will act as a block. GFS is picking up on a possible hurricane forming off the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by late Thursday or early Friday, but quickly recurving into the Atlantic - well east of Bermuda.

Still plenty of time to watch everything unfold, but heart of the season is definitely making its presence known.

[stormlover]

other GFS model has strong tropical storm headed towards Sw/LA

[Texaspirate11]

2 p.m. disco

A vigorous low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday. Conditions appears to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands and the adjacent Atlantic. This system is expected to bring rains and gusty winds to those islands in two or three days, and interests in that region should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[sau27]

Being mostly facetious here - But this is another holiday weekend. You know how things get interesting around holidays here.

[Belmer]

other GFS model has strong tropical storm headed towards Sw/LA

Are you talking about the 12z run? That shows a TD, maybe a weak TS impacting SETX next Friday.

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=192

[Belmer]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=192

Ah. I miss the key words there, 'other GFS model'.

[stormlover]

Euro has it basically riding the coastline heading towards tx.........going to be a interesting weekend I think lots of model watching

[Texaspirate11]

Been sitting in the dark after storm moved thru,, power finally came on

https://www.khou.com/article/traffic/do ... -588746012

[DoctorMu]

other GFS model has strong tropical storm headed towards Sw/LA

12z Euro has a broad lower entering Louisiana and turning westward into Texas at the end of the week - a rain event.


We'll see.

[DoctorMu]

other GFS model has strong tropical storm headed towards Sw/LA

Are you talking about the 12z run? That shows a TD, maybe a weak TS impacting SETX next Friday.

Agrees with latest Euro.

[Scott747]

Models can turn on a dime but it's getting hard to ignore the consistency of the gfs.

Each run gets a little more defined with tonight's 0z run showing a developing storm moving into the corpus area next Friday.

Euro has trended further east more towards the ngom for any potential system. Will be interesting if it starts showing something similar to the gfs on tonight's run.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight 00Z NCEP (American) and ECMWF Ensembles began slowly increasing odds of a potential for Tropical Cyclone Genesis South of Louisiana in the 120 to 240 hour range to around 40%.

Early morning visible imagery suggests wind shear is still impacting the tropical wave with only scattered storms with no organization expected anytime soon.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Deep easterly flow will maintain elevated rain chances for the next several days as tropical moisture continues to flow into the region.

High pressure over the NE US will continue to produce an E/ESE flow across the Gulf of Mexico and into the TX coast with weak tropical waves moving east to west in this flow and making landfall along the TX coast. One such wave moved over the area yesterday enhancing rain chances and the next wave will approach this weekend. Will go with 30-40% rain coverage along the seabreeze today and Friday and then bump that up to 60-70% for Sunday and Monday as the next wave approaches from the ESE. Highest rain coverage on Sunday will likely east of I-45 and along the coast and then across much of the area on Monday.

Forecast for next week will become highly dependent on what if any sort of tropical system attempts to develop over the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropics:

90L:
A strong tropical wave has moved off the western coast of Africa showing good signs of development. Surface observations and satellite images indicated that a surface low pressure center has formed with this wave and deep convection has formed near and around the surface low. It is likely this wave will be upgraded to a tropical depression later today and may threaten the Cape Verde Islands over the next 48 hours as it moves generally W to WNW. Longer range global models show a large scale mid Atlantic trough developing near 45W which should be deep enough to turn the system toward the NNW and N over the open central Atlantic.

Caribbean Tropical Wave:
A westward moving tropical wave currently extends from the NE Caribbean Sea to the northern coast of south America. Thunderstorm activity has increased with this wave, but strong upper level WSW winds over the top of the wave axis is producing wind shear and preventing development. This is the wave axis that both the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting may have some potential to develop in the Gulf of Mexico next week. The ECMWF shows a weak low forming just east of SE FL and then brings that feature WNW toward SE LA by the middle to end of next week. The GFS has development more over the central Gulf of Mexico and tracks the feature more westward toward the middle TX coast by the end of next week. Both the GFS and ECWMF ensembles also show support for some sort of development in the northern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. While agreement on development of a tropical feature has increased slightly over yesterday it is still uncertain as to where and when development may occur which would have a large impact on the potential track of any Gulf system. For now just be aware that some sort of tropical system may develop in the Gulf next week and check the forecast at least daily through the holiday weekend.