July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see changes in the Hemispheric Pattern as we head toward late July into August. The Afternoon Update CPC Day 8-14 Outlook suggest a very deep longwave trough becoming established East of the Rockies with temperatures cooling and rain chances increase. It is also noteworthy that a very impressive wet phase of the MJO suggesting rising air allowing thunderstorms to develop across the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic Basin in conjunction with the strongest Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave we've seen so far this year arrives as July end and August begins.

After a mix of weather doldrums and some rainy periods in early July, the pattern ahead suggest a much more active period may well be lurking. Water temperatures in the Gulf are very warm and can easily support tropical troubles, if they form. It's time to turn our attention toward the Gulf and Western Caribbean as well as for any Mesoscale Convective System that splash into the Gulf from the mainland and fester as Alicia did some 35 years ago. #ItOnlyTakesOne

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
931 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

.A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS, GENERALLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE SAN BERNARD
RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 90'S TO THE LOWER
100'S TODAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP BUT THE COMBINATION OF THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES.

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA ISLANDS-CHAMBERS-COASTAL BRAZORIA-
COASTAL GALVESTON-COASTAL HARRIS-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA-GRIMES-INLAND BRAZORIA-
INLAND GALVESTON-INLAND HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN LIBERTY-
SAN JACINTO-SOUTHERN LIBERTY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ALVIN, ANAHUAC, ANGLETON, BAYTOWN,
BELLVILLE, BRENHAM, BROOKSHIRE, CLEVELAND, CLUTE, COLDSPRING,
CONROE, DAYTON, DEVERS, DICKINSON, FIRST COLONY, FREEPORT,
FRIENDSWOOD, GALVESTON, HEMPSTEAD, HOUSTON, HUNTSVILLE,
LA MARQUE, LAKE JACKSON, LEAGUE CITY, LIBERTY, MISSION BEND,
MISSOURI CITY, MONT BELVIEU, NAVASOTA, OLD RIVER-WINFREE,
PASADENA, PEARLAND, PECAN GROVE, PRAIRIE VIEW, ROSENBERG, SEALY,
SHEPHERD, STOWELL, SUGAR LAND, SURFSIDE BEACH, TEXAS CITY,
THE WOODLANDS, WALLER, AND WINNIE
931 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* EVENT...TEMPERATURES OF 96 TO 103 DEGREES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 109.

* TIMING...NOON THROUGH 8 PM WITH THE PEAK TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 PM.

* IMPACT...DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 911.

EACH YEAR...A NUMBER OF FATALITIES OCCUR NATIONWIDE DUE TO
CHILDREN ACCIDENTALLY BEING LEFT IN VEHICLES DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS. IN THE PAST DOZEN YEARS...500R CHILDREN HAVE DIED DUE TO
HYPERTHERMIA AFTER BEING LEFT IN OR GAINING ACCESS TO CARS. NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN A VEHICLE NOT EVEN FOR A
MINUTE. REMEMBER...BEAT THE HEAT...CHECK THE BACKSEAT.

&&1

$$

BRAZOS-BURLESON-HOUSTON-MADISON-POLK-TRINITY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BRYAN, CALDWELL, COLLEGE STATION,
CORRIGAN, CROCKETT, GROVETON, LIVINGSTON, MADISONVILLE,
SOMERVILLE, AND TRINITY
931 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* EVENT...TEMPERATURES OF 99 TO 104 AND HEAT INDEX OF 100 TO 108.

* TIMING...NOON THROUGH 8 PM WITH THE PEAK TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 3
AND 6 PM.

* IMPACT...DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE
AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 911.

EACH YEAR...A NUMBER OF FATALITIES OCCUR NATIONWIDE DUE TO
CHILDREN ACCIDENTALLY BEING LEFT IN VEHICLES DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS. IN THE PAST DOZEN YEARS...500 CHILDREN HAVE DIED DUE TO
HYPERTHERMIA AFTER BEING LEFT IN OR GAINING ACCESS TO CARS. NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN A VEHICLE NOT EVEN FOR A
MINUTE. REMEMBER...BEAT THE HEAT...CHECK THE BACKSEAT.

[srainhoutx]

Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com‏Verified account @RyanMaue · 57m57 minutes ago

The #heatdome parked over Texas for the past week has aided in warming up Gulf of Mexico ocean temperatures. Typically 29°-29.5°C heading into last week of July, areas are 30°-31°C

SST maps in @weathermodels_ "Lab" --> https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/oisst/sst.php …
weathermodels.com

[srainhoutx]

One more day of this Heat Wave then changes begin to take shape as the pesky Heat Ridge shifts West and a shortwave and an associated cool front drop out of the ArkLaTex on Tuesday setting the stage for a slight chance of showers/storms as the front actually pushes through.

A bit of Saharan Dust may inhibit chances Wednesday, but temperature will drop into the low to mid 90's with a chance of seabreeze/bay breeze showers/storms to end the work week.

Both the GFS and ECMWF suites of guidance suggest a deep longwave trough begin to take shape next week possibly bringing additional and possibly increasing rainfall chances as we near the end of July. Climatology suggest this may be the last of the extreme Heat for the summer season as we begin that slow but steady march toward Fall.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 7m7 minutes ago
Houston Intercontinental hit 100 degrees today! This is the first time Houston has hit 100 so far in 2018 #houwx #txwx

[Katdaddy]

Another very hot day across much of TX with Heat Advisories in effect for all of SE TX. Slightly cooler temps and a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon thanks to a weak backdoor cool front that will be dissipating as it drift across the area.

[CrashTestDummy]

Not sure how 'optimistic' my Accurite weather station is, but on Saturday afternoon, I saw a 101-degree ambient temp, and a 112-degree head index!!

It was hot out there, but I'm not sure it felt like 112-degree hot.

[davidiowx]

I have the AcuRite 01024M and mine hit 100 in Richmond around 4PM yesterday and the Heat Index was 107 at that time. It was hot, but there was a little bit of a breeze so that was a plus.

[tireman4]

Here is a question for the pro mets...what is the convective temperature when it is so hot? I am assuming around 105-107, right? There is SOME moisture...just a curious question

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231524
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1024 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

At 15Z temperatures have reached the mid/upper 80s making it feel
like mid 95s with humidity. Surface analysis has slow moving
frontal boundary over N Texas and N Louisiana. SW winds in the
boundary layer over the region will allow for another hot day
today. Upper air analysis shows northerly flow aloft with an
amplified pattern. Upper level ridge has moved back to the west
over the southern Rockies with a broad trough east of the
Mississippi River. Here are a few near term forecast notes:

- Cloud cover may impact high temps today and max heat index which
people should not mind so much. Do not have enough confidence to
lower high temps for today based on cloud cover.
- What AMDAR soundings I could find with moisture profiles showed
quite a bit of dry air above 950mb which should easily mix.
Sounds are drier than most model soundings so I did try to mix
out some of the moisture in the afternoon with slightly lower
dewpoints. This still only made minimal impact on heat index
values. Still think mixing will be stronger than models think.
- Frontal boundary coming into the area tonight/tomorrow could
impact decision for heat advisory tomorrow.

Overpeck

[jasons2k]

Just got back from spending two weeks in Florida. This Texas heat with no rain is just miserable.

[CrashTestDummy]

This Texas heat WITH rain is worse!!

[srainhoutx]

The Heat Advisory will not be reissued tomorrow across SE Texas as a weak cool front moves in to our Region and may bring a slight chance of showers/storms with it as it washes out tomorrow in Wednesday.

The pesky Heat Ridge that has plagued Texas will move West and put us in a generally Northerly flow aloft throughout the work week into the coming weekend. A stronger shortwave with another cool front possibly somewhat strong for this time of year arrives Sunday and may usher in slightly better chances of some much need rainfall. Sometimes we have to monitor MCS thunderstorm complexes dropping into our Region from the N in such a pattern. There is a thunderstorm complex out over the Central Gulf S of New Orleans that fired up today. Any thunderstorm complexes to strengthen and maintain over the very warm Gulf waters always need to be monitored for any unexpected tropical mischief that may attempt to spin up close to home.

A general trough pattern East of the Rockies to the East Coast looks to extend into the early day of August with a chance for some isolated to scattered shower/storm chances throughout the rest of July into early August.

[Rip76]

This is promising.

[Katdaddy]

Yep, I am ready for some slightly cooler weather. The altocumulus moving across the yard this evening was a reminder of Winter.

[Katdaddy]

A slightly cooler day across SE TX with some isolated showers possible SW of Houston metro this afternoon. More sun and upper 90s Wednesday through Friday.

[srainhoutx]

For the first time in awhile, HGX radar has some activity on it. I noticed College Station picked up 0.03 inches of rain earlier this morning. Perhaps a harbinger of things to come with our Northerly flow? Time will tell.

[jasons2k]

I hope so. Everything so far looks like it's sliding off to the east of us.

[CrashTestDummy]

It's a brisk 86-degrees here in northern Brazoria County this morning at 1100. Brrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!

Clouds and some haze, but so far, no rain.

[Cromagnum]

Doesn't feel like a rainy day at all. Not as hot, but humidity is making up for it.