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FXUS64 KHGX 211757
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.AVIATION...
Morning precip near the coast is tapering off as atmos there
should stabilize. Further north, lingering boundaries & daytime
heating should initiate some sct shra/tstms for the rest of the
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of the
precip. Moisture levels will be dropping during the next 24 hours
and precip should taper off areawide by sunset. Need to keep an
eye out for fog development later tonight with wet ground and
light winds in place. Not confident on the areal extent nor how
low visby/cig go but 2-6sm and/or 800-1500 feet would be a 1st
guess between 9-14z. Fog burns off and ceilings lift back into VFR
territory mid to late morning Fri. Rain chances are much lower
Fri than they have been and won`t include them in the TAFs. 47

&&

An overview of this week's rains....

tireman4 wrote:An overview of this week's rains....

I am in an orange donut (surprise surprise) but I am grateful for what I got.

jasons wrote:

tireman4 wrote:An overview of this week's rains....

I am in an orange donut (surprise surprise) but I am grateful for what I got.

A surprise shower today to bring totals up to 1.6 in of rain. Hoping for more, but much better than nothing!

Time to start thinking of July. The 4th extended Holiday is approaching. The models suggest a heat wave across the Central United States. Looks like some rain chances return next week from a disturbance to our N. No deep tropical moisture from an un-named mess that flooded a large portion of Texas and and SW Louisiana. Perhaps someone new can start our July Discussions...

PSA for today and the upcoming weeks....

Pretty good summary of what to expect over the next week or two; hot and dry. Keep your fingers crossed for a stray seabreeze shower otherwise pretty standard summer weather.

Andrew wrote:Pretty good summary of what to expect over the next week or two; hot and dry. Keep your fingers crossed for a stray seabreeze shower otherwise pretty standard summer weather.

Welcome to Texas!


There could be a weakness in the ridge after July 4th. We'll see.

DoctorMu wrote:

Andrew wrote:Pretty good summary of what to expect over the next week or two; hot and dry. Keep your fingers crossed for a stray seabreeze shower otherwise pretty standard summer weather.

Welcome to Texas!


There could be a weakness in the ridge after July 4th. We'll see.

A bit of a slight increase in deeper tropical moisture and a weakness in the sub tropical Ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday may offer some heat of the day storms to fire off throughout the rest of June.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as the Summer heat continues across SE TX.
This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today. A few
of the stronger storms could produce brief gusty winds above 30
mile per hour.

It`ll be very warm again today and heat index values will range
from 102 to 107 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Keep an eye on the outflow boundary off to the northwest. This was kicked out from the thunderstorms over Oklahoma last night. May increase coverage later this afternoon. Especially to the north and west of the region.

Visible is also pretty interesting this morning. Not only do you have the outflow boundary shooting south across Central Texas, you have gravity wave behind it near San Angelo that has pretty much undercut any thunderstorms trying to form. Closer to home and across South Central Texas you have a CU-field going up. That will be key to watch if paired with the outflow boundary and daytime heating it can break the weak mid-level cap we have going on. Finally, near Waco you can see thunderstorm the outflow boundary sparked which is now weakening.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

I'm hearing some rumbling thunder to the Northwest of us. Maybe we will get one of those showers.

Storms all around with a good bit of thunder, just teasing me so far.

.16 inches over the past 20 minutes at our house.

I keep threading the needle of nothingness. Two rounds to the left, the next to the right...

Did really well today with just over an inch of rain. All the ditches are completely full.

jasons wrote:Storms all around with a good bit of thunder, just teasing me so far.

Same here. Outlaw may keep temps down and maybe a taste of rain.

.04" here...

Interesting obs: here in SW Washington County, we're on the moisture gradient mentioned in this morning's disco and as seen on the GOES 16 WV loop. Given that, the clouds sure are building nicely (better than yesterday)for it being only 10 am. Hope it brings rain.