srainhoutx wrote:stormlover wrote:Andrew, how good is the icon model
Serious Convective feedback issues. Toss it. After a year of watching that German model, I am not impressed at all.
A daily, focal (locally) scattered showers solution with heavier rain all along the coast seems a lot more probable. There's still a lot of shear running south from the TX/LA border - organization of wave 1 should be negligible.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
319 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and very little thunder dot Southeast Texas this
afternoon with temperatures so far mainly in the upper 80s at the
coast to the lower to mid 90s inland. Could see isolated thunderstorm
development before sunset, but most high res models are only showing
showers. Have not made any significant chances to the forecast package
for the next several days. The National Hurricane Center now has
20% formation chances for the Gulf of Mexico tropical disturbance.
As this system moves toward the Texas coast over the next several
days, our area will see significantly increasing rain chances and
the threat for locally heavy rainfall beginning tomorrow and continuing
on through Monday and/or Monday night. Models are showing a variety
of predicted rainfall totals, but for now will stick with Sunday-
Monday totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
(higher numbers probably closer to the coast and the lower numbers
probably well inland). Any organization and/or strengthening along
with the eventual track of this currently disorganized system could
result in changes to expected rainfall including a possible risk of
additional heavy rainfall after Monday. For now, generally expect
to see rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday
when moisture levels and instability are highest, and we`ll keep
rain chances elevated on into Tuesday and Wednesday as precipitable
water values remain close to a 2.0 to 2.5 inch range. Will continue
to carry gradually lowering rain chances for the second half of
week with a lean toward the GFS`s depiction of a mid/upper level
high ridging into the area from the east. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Forecast remains on track to see deteriorating conditions through early next
week as a tropical wave continues to slowly shift west-northwestward over the
western gulf of mexico. Not only will showers and thunderstorms become
more widespread, but winds and seas will also increase Sunday afternoon.
Long-period swell with seas in the 5-7 feet range nearshore and 7-9 feet
range offshore should overspread the area Sunday afternoon and continue into
Tuesday as winds increase into the 20-25 kt range offshore and 15-20 kt in
the bays/inlets. In addition, periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected as this tropical waves lingers, producing heavy rainfall and
potentially funnel clouds and/or waterspouts. Improving conditions are
expected mid to late week.
Tide levels will increase to between 0.5 and 1.25 feet above normal.
This will lead to some wave run-up or possibly minor coastal
flooding along the Bolivar peninsula Sunday through Tuesday at times
of high tide.
Evans