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Appears this wave is absorbing former 91L moisture area. Early models are more bullish with it around Matagorda Bay and rainfall amounts for coastal areas of HGX/CRP. Sure is stormy out there in the gulf...

12Z GFS has rains moving inland over SE Texas tomorrow, and no closed low thru 42 hours.

Probably the best scenario for beneficial rains.

Seeing folks on other forums mention that although more likely to be a TD or low end TS when it gets here that a new models are hinting at low end Hurricane potential. Any truth to this? Trying to get yardwork knocked out today.

I’d do it either way.

FreeportTX35 wrote:So I'm confused I just washed Blake Matthews live on Facebook and he was saying that blob down there wasnt impressive he assured us of that....now we have Brookes saying things could get interesting.. so what do we believe?

I’m not making a forecast assurtion in these posts — only suggesting trends and offering, “what if’s”. Blake is on the ball and knows the score, in the captains chair this weekend. I’m having Father’s Day steak on the grill, but on stand by should we get a surprise.

Cromagnum wrote:Seeing folks on other forums mention that although more likely to be a TD or low end TS when it gets here that a new models are hinting at low end Hurricane potential. Any truth to this? Trying to get yardwork knocked out today.

That's a good idea.

Gotta think the NHC will put chances higher than 10 percent with the next update in an hour....

from https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... WDAT.shtml?

just the GOM portion (updated)

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong surface trough extends from 23N91W to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong winds are near the trough axis. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection follows the trough covering the far NW Caribbean, the Yucatan Channel, the NE portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf waters S of 24N between 85W-90W. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant tropical cyclone development, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to spread across the central Gulf of Mexico later today and will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts on Sunday. The trough is interacting with an upper-level low located over the western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern end of the trough while scattered showers and isolated tstms are seen over the SW Gulf in association with the upper level-low. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a ridge.

The trough will move WNW through early Sun night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms that could produce rough seas. A tightening of the pres gradient between the trough and high pres that extends westward from the Atlantic will support fresh to strong SE winds over the west-central Gulf waters, increasing to strong to near gale force over the central Gulf this afternoon. These winds will spread westward through Tue while gradually diminishing with the trough shifting inland over Texas.

mcheer23 wrote:Gotta think the NHC will put chances higher than 10 percent with the next update in an hour....

20% chance ya think or higher?

FreeportTX35 wrote:

mcheer23 wrote:Gotta think the NHC will put chances higher than 10 percent with the next update in an hour....

20% chance ya think or higher?

Higher.

cperk wrote:

FreeportTX35 wrote:

mcheer23 wrote:Gotta think the NHC will put chances higher than 10 percent with the next update in an hour....

20% chance ya think or higher?

Higher.

Personally, I'd go about 30, for now....but I think they'll go 20.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough
near the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper-level low over the western
Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage since this morning. Recent
satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a surface
circulation does not exist, but strong winds are occuring to the
north of the trough. Environmental conditions are not expected to
support significant development, however, heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely to spread across the central Gulf of Mexico today
and will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts on Sunday. For more details on this system please see
products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

They went conservative, if convection keeps firing I could see 40 tonight

The vorticity looks pretty sharp on the 12z Euro gets close to closing it off.

This might be the first time ever I go against the euro

Houston dome in full effect today.

Rip76 wrote:Houston dome in full effect today.

Yes, how can it be so hot, and such high pwats, and nothing?!?!?!

That high pressure has to still be looming.

Srain, what do u think about the euro ?