JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns
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srainhoutx
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A vigorous shortwave continues to march East across Texas this morning. With multiple boundaries around, I would not be surprised to see storms fire off later this afternoon during peak heating. Lots of wind and a sprinkle or two up here in NW Harris County with last nights excitement.
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CrashTestDummy
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A little rain would be nice! Saw the Big Red Blob heading southwestward last night, even saw some flashes of light, but alas, nothing but leaves fell from the sky over here last night. It was looking like it was going to hold together, too, but I guess it stopped off for a beer on the boardwalk in Kemah.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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srainhoutx
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Some of the short range mesoscale models suggest additional rain/storm chances tomorrow afternoon as well as another MCS develops over N Central Texas and drops SE into our Region in the N to NW flow aloft. Fingers crossed we remain just East of the Mexico Heat Ridge allowing heat of the day showers and storms to continue this work week.
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srainhoutx
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Monday morning briefing from Jeff:
Active evening of severe weather late Sunday…additional thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and evening…some may become severe with damaging winds.
Air mass is more stable this morning after the large complex of storms/massive outflow boundary swept across the region with strong winds yesterday evening. However a strong disturbance over NC TX is moving ESE and will approach and move into SE TX this afternoon and evening. Surface heating this morning into the afternoon hours will allow the air mass to become increasingly unstable and a surface front laying across the area along with the northward moving seabreeze boundary will likely be the focus for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. There are numerous outflow boundaries across the region this morning and any of these boundaries could result in storm formation by mid afternoon. Activity will likely continue well into the evening hours with support/lift from the short wave aloft.
Main threats again this afternoon and evening will be damaging winds to 55-65mph along with frequent lightning and some small hail. Heavy rainfall threat also appears to be higher today with slower storm motions and increased lift from the short wave aloft helping to vent any developing storm complex. Rainfall totals overnight across the TX Hill Country were up to 6 inches in some areas…so the increasingly moist air mass will be capable of some impressive short term rainfall totals. Will need to keep an eye on any potential cell training or cell mergers that could locally increase excessive rainfall rates and result in short fused flash flooding. Main flooding concern at this time would likely be street flooding from intense rainfall rates, but there should also be some caution in highly moist air masses where storms may move slowly.
Evening storms may go late tonight into Tuesday morning and will have to see what shape the air mass is in early Tuesday. Air mass could be worked over and stabilized by activity this afternoon or evening if it becomes fairly widespread, if not the air mass will likely be primed and ready to go again on Tuesday. With the front still lingering in the area on Tuesday this will help provide a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday Evening Severe Weather Reports:
Navasota, Grimes: 51mph
BUSH IAH, Harris: 53mph
Hooks, Harris: 51mph
Bellaire, Harris: 43mph
Panorama Village, Montgomery: 54mph
Coldspring, San Jacinto: 55mph
Coldspring, San Jacinto: numerous trees downed along FM 224…estimated winds of 60-65mph
Huntsville, Walker: Trees downed in Huntsville.
Bryan, Brazos: estimated winds of 50-55mph with tree limbs downed across the city
Bryan, Brazos: excessive rainfall of 2-3 inches in less than 1-hr. Significant street flooding with impassable streets
Active evening of severe weather late Sunday…additional thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and evening…some may become severe with damaging winds.
Air mass is more stable this morning after the large complex of storms/massive outflow boundary swept across the region with strong winds yesterday evening. However a strong disturbance over NC TX is moving ESE and will approach and move into SE TX this afternoon and evening. Surface heating this morning into the afternoon hours will allow the air mass to become increasingly unstable and a surface front laying across the area along with the northward moving seabreeze boundary will likely be the focus for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. There are numerous outflow boundaries across the region this morning and any of these boundaries could result in storm formation by mid afternoon. Activity will likely continue well into the evening hours with support/lift from the short wave aloft.
Main threats again this afternoon and evening will be damaging winds to 55-65mph along with frequent lightning and some small hail. Heavy rainfall threat also appears to be higher today with slower storm motions and increased lift from the short wave aloft helping to vent any developing storm complex. Rainfall totals overnight across the TX Hill Country were up to 6 inches in some areas…so the increasingly moist air mass will be capable of some impressive short term rainfall totals. Will need to keep an eye on any potential cell training or cell mergers that could locally increase excessive rainfall rates and result in short fused flash flooding. Main flooding concern at this time would likely be street flooding from intense rainfall rates, but there should also be some caution in highly moist air masses where storms may move slowly.
Evening storms may go late tonight into Tuesday morning and will have to see what shape the air mass is in early Tuesday. Air mass could be worked over and stabilized by activity this afternoon or evening if it becomes fairly widespread, if not the air mass will likely be primed and ready to go again on Tuesday. With the front still lingering in the area on Tuesday this will help provide a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday Evening Severe Weather Reports:
Navasota, Grimes: 51mph
BUSH IAH, Harris: 53mph
Hooks, Harris: 51mph
Bellaire, Harris: 43mph
Panorama Village, Montgomery: 54mph
Coldspring, San Jacinto: 55mph
Coldspring, San Jacinto: numerous trees downed along FM 224…estimated winds of 60-65mph
Huntsville, Walker: Trees downed in Huntsville.
Bryan, Brazos: estimated winds of 50-55mph with tree limbs downed across the city
Bryan, Brazos: excessive rainfall of 2-3 inches in less than 1-hr. Significant street flooding with impassable streets
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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It would appear our rain chances for today are dwindling as the high clouds drifting in from the dying MCS in North Texas are keeping a lid on our instability.
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redneckweather
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Yupsau27 wrote:It would appear our rain chances for today are dwindling as the high clouds drifting in from the dying MCS in North Texas are keeping a lid on our instability.
907
FXUS64 KHGX 042052
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Not a whole lot of action going on as of 3 PM thanks to a cap in
place, but we will have a shot at at least some scattered showers
and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Best chances
for now look to be across the northeast portions of the area as
this is where the stalled frontal boundary has settled in for now.
With a little bit of an inverted V in the soundings and PWs near
2 inches, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with any storms that are able to develop. High temperatures were
adjusted down a touch for the Brazos Valley as they kept higher
cloud cover than was expected for much of the day.
A shortwave trough rotates across the ArkLaTex late tonight into
tomorrow morning, which could bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Most of this should be focused just to
the northeast, but especially the NE and E portions of the area
could get a round of showers and thunderstorms early tomorrow
morning and into the daytime tomorrow. Lack of heating when the
worst rolls through should generally limit the severe potential.
After the shortwave exits, upper ridging builds back in over
West Texas with SE Texas on the eastern periphery. Depending on
the strength and placement of the ridge each day, we do keep
enough moisture that a few showers and storms could develop along
the seabreeze during the afternoons. Probably will have a little
variance day to day based on the finer details, but overall the
pattern will pretty much be the same through the rest of the
forecast period. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the 90s
basically every afternoon, so summer heat safety messaging will
need to continue.
11
&&
.MARINE...
A typical summer time pattern is expected over the northwest Gulf
for the next several days. South to southwest winds are expected
through the middle of the week at around 10 to 15 knots. Winds turn
more to the southeast for the end of the week with speeds of 10 to
15 knots. Seas will remain around 2 to 3 feet in offshore areas with
bays slightly choppy.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 95 75 96 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 75 94 76 95 76 / 10 20 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 90 81 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 042052
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Not a whole lot of action going on as of 3 PM thanks to a cap in
place, but we will have a shot at at least some scattered showers
and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Best chances
for now look to be across the northeast portions of the area as
this is where the stalled frontal boundary has settled in for now.
With a little bit of an inverted V in the soundings and PWs near
2 inches, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with any storms that are able to develop. High temperatures were
adjusted down a touch for the Brazos Valley as they kept higher
cloud cover than was expected for much of the day.
A shortwave trough rotates across the ArkLaTex late tonight into
tomorrow morning, which could bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Most of this should be focused just to
the northeast, but especially the NE and E portions of the area
could get a round of showers and thunderstorms early tomorrow
morning and into the daytime tomorrow. Lack of heating when the
worst rolls through should generally limit the severe potential.
After the shortwave exits, upper ridging builds back in over
West Texas with SE Texas on the eastern periphery. Depending on
the strength and placement of the ridge each day, we do keep
enough moisture that a few showers and storms could develop along
the seabreeze during the afternoons. Probably will have a little
variance day to day based on the finer details, but overall the
pattern will pretty much be the same through the rest of the
forecast period. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the 90s
basically every afternoon, so summer heat safety messaging will
need to continue.
11
&&
.MARINE...
A typical summer time pattern is expected over the northwest Gulf
for the next several days. South to southwest winds are expected
through the middle of the week at around 10 to 15 knots. Winds turn
more to the southeast for the end of the week with speeds of 10 to
15 knots. Seas will remain around 2 to 3 feet in offshore areas with
bays slightly choppy.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 95 75 96 75 / 20 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 75 94 76 95 76 / 10 20 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 90 81 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
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srainhoutx
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17 years ago this morning, Tropical Storm Allison formed and would be a major tropical flooding event benchmark for Houston until last August when Harvey came calling.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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I was in Austin over a long weekend so I missed the action on Sunday night. I came home to a lot of yard debris, blinking clocks, and a measly .08”.
A few hours old, from the NWS - not very optimistic about rain chances:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1031 AM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Mesoanalysis at 14/15Z has the frontal boundary located from
southern Oklahoma through NE Texas which is a little farther north
than yesterday. There is also a weak trough axis aloft over
Arkansas that stretches into SE Texas. Radar shows thunderstorm
activity along this boundary with the trough axis over NE Texas
and N Louisiana. Boundary layer flow is from the SW over the
region and AMDAR soundings show capping at 800mb. This capping is
weaker on KLCH 12Z sounding so it stands to reason the cap is
stronger over SE Texas and obviously weaker to the NE and E of the
region. Based on 500mb analysis the best large scale ascent is
east of the region ahead of the trough axis so there may not be
much support for convection over the region today. Convective
temperatures are in the mid 90s and that is also in line with
latest max temperature forecast. It is possible for an isolated
storm to form in this environment but it will likely need an
outflow boundary to move into the area for initiation. For now
think convection will remain along the boundary so rain chances
have been adjusted to line up parallel to the boundary for
Houston/Trinity/Polk counties. SPC has marginal risk of severe
weather in this area as well and given potential instability, hail
and downburst winds will be possible. Again this is an isolated
threat and conditional on storms actually developing.
Overpeck
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Texaspirate11
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Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
The airmass seems very tropical today.
And yet the snake oil salesmen, err developers, are continuing to build in flood planes. Some people need to be hung out to dry.
it's going to be a long summer...
Code: Select all
789
FXUS64 KHGX 062020
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Our stretch of early summer warm temperatures continues for the
next several days. Outside of a few possible showers in the east
today, conditions should be relatively dry until the weekend,
when we look for more of a typical routine of scattered afternoon
showers and storms to come back into the picture.
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Numerous boundaries are present in and around Southeast Texas this
afternoon, with the most significant one lying east of Houston,
attached to a stalled out front in the northern Gulf. If there's
any hope for showers are a stray storm, it will likely be on that
boundary. However, water vapor imagery from GOES-East shows that
subsidence behind a weak shortwave trough that moved through the
area this morning has largely taken hold over the area. This will
minimize rain potential even right around these boundaries. There
is an indication of an even more subtle shortwave just south of
the Red River that will make its way to us on the northerly flow
aloft. Have some small PoPs in place again very late tonight to
reflect that, but it is a very, very small feature and there's no
guarantee it won't shear out before it gets here.
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The rest of the work week should be pretty familiar. Looking for
weather to be rather fair, and similarly hot. The dominant feature
in the column continues to be the strong midlevel ridge, though
the guidance is hinting at eventual changes...just not here in the
short term.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
By the weekend, the guidance is starting to make some changes to
the dominant upper ridge. There's not a ton of consensus whether
it will be a small weakening, or a slide to the west, or a shift
to the north...but what the consensus does seem to be is for its
grip over Southeast Texas to loosen just enough to get some
potential for diurnal convection to fire. Of course, this means
the best odds will be east of Houston and nearer the coastal
boundary. Probably not looking for a ton of change farther west
and north. But, I feel pretty good going with fairly widespread
slight chances and a little bit higher in the aforementioned
preferred areas. Given that this ridge has been quite persistent
recently, I did not buy into the 40s/50s PoPs my first guess model
blend gave me. Instead, I keep things capped in the slight
chance/chance area. This is the extended, so if we do see signs
that the ridge is beginning to loosen its iron grip, we can ramp
chances up.
Other than the possible return of scattered afternoon showers and
storms (or nighttime, if you are headed into the offshore waters),
also blunt high temperatures some for the weekend and next week -
a little closer to seasonal averages, but still in the lower 90s
away from the coast.
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
SW winds beginning to back to the SE and should continue through
mid afternoon. S/W moving south through the coastal counties with
strong subsidence in it's wake which should help to hamper
convective development this afternoon. Won't rule out a storm of
IAH late afternoon but chances look slim. Overnight winds relax
and patchy MVFR ceilings develop and spread northwest. Winds
Thursday should be SE a notable change from this morning's SW
flow. Most guidance has some localized rain chances in the
vicinity of LBX and have added in a few hours late morning
Thursday of VCSH there but the profile may be to warm for TSRA.
45
&&
.MARINE...
Diurnal pattern taking hold for the most part with slightly stronger
nocturnal winds but for most of the period below normal winds. Tides
near normal and and seas correspondingly low. Gradient does start to
tighten up Sunday and may see winds approach SCEC for 4-8 hours.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 94 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 94 74 94 75 / 10 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 87 80 87 80 / 10 10 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...45
MARINE...45-
Katdaddy
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- Location: League City, Tx
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018
TXZ213-227-062315-
Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
526 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...
At 524 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sharpstown, or near Piney Point Village, moving west-southwest at 10
mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Sugar Land, northern Missouri City, Stafford, Bellaire, West
University Place, Richmond, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill
Village, Piney Point Village, Town West, Pecan Grove, Eldridge / West
Oaks, First Colony, Mission Bend, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area,
Meadows Place, Hedwig Village, Southside Place, Braeswood and
Westbury.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018
TXZ213-227-062315-
Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
526 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...
At 524 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sharpstown, or near Piney Point Village, moving west-southwest at 10
mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Sugar Land, northern Missouri City, Stafford, Bellaire, West
University Place, Richmond, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill
Village, Piney Point Village, Town West, Pecan Grove, Eldridge / West
Oaks, First Colony, Mission Bend, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area,
Meadows Place, Hedwig Village, Southside Place, Braeswood and
Westbury.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Couldnt agree more!!!Cromagnum wrote:And yet the snake oil salesmen, err developers, are continuing to build in flood planes. Some people need to be hung out to dry.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
A funnel cloud reported S of Rosenberg by a storm spotter 20 minutes ago.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018
TXZ226-227-237-062345-
Inland Brazoria TX-Wharton TX-Fort Bend TX-
610 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL WHARTON...
SOUTHWESTERN FORT BEND AND EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...
At 607 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Needville, or 12 miles south of Rosenberg, moving west at 10 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. A storm
spotter reported a funnel cloud south of Rosenberg.
Locations impacted include...
Needville, Fairchilds and Damon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018
TXZ226-227-237-062345-
Inland Brazoria TX-Wharton TX-Fort Bend TX-
610 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL WHARTON...
SOUTHWESTERN FORT BEND AND EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...
At 607 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Needville, or 12 miles south of Rosenberg, moving west at 10 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. A storm
spotter reported a funnel cloud south of Rosenberg.
Locations impacted include...
Needville, Fairchilds and Damon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Ozone Action Day
https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.actiondays
https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=air ... cityid=236
If only we could take action to reduce pollution before ppl have to be warned it may not be safe for them to breathe outside
https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.actiondays
https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=air ... cityid=236
If only we could take action to reduce pollution before ppl have to be warned it may not be safe for them to breathe outside
So what causes a High pressure system to degrade enough to release the cap to allow clouds to lift? Or maybe a different question, what is the life cycle of a High pressure system? Thanks.