SUMMARY...GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE LOCATIONS BUT GIVEN
EXTREMELY DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING BANDS...FLASH
FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL
REGION.
DISCUSSION...OUTER N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BAND CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE PROLIFIC RAINFALL RATES OVER 2"/HR TRAINING. UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT HAD BEEN INFLUENCING THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BAND BY LEADING SW TO NE CLOUD BEARING FLOW HAS EXITED TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND MEAN CLOUD BEARING FLOW HAS BEEN BACKING RECENTLY
AND BANDS ARE STARTING TO REFOCUS JUST OFFSHORE. WEST OF THE
BAND...CLEARING SKIES ARE SUPPORTING INCREASING INSOLATION TO ADD
INSTABILITY TO THE UNSTABLE BUT SKINNY PROFILES PER LCH 12Z
SOUNDING...LEADING TO CAPES OVER 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STRONG MST
CONVERGENCE AND FLUX SUPPORTS 3-4"/HR RAINFALL RATES ESPECIALLY IN
THE TRAINING CONVECTION...AND LEAD TO LIKELY FLASH FLOODING RISK.
A SECONDARY BAND IN THE WESTERN GULF IS UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF
THE MCV/NARROW SYNOPTIC INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROF OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX. MEAN FLOW IS DIRECTING THIS BAND NORTHWARD BUT RECENT VIS/IR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME STRONG INFLOW IN THE LOW LEVEL IS ALLOWING
FOR INCREASE EASTWARD PROPAGATION THAT WOULD DIRECT CELLS TOWARD
MATAGORDA BAY AND EASTWARD. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN DIRECTION
OF DEVELOPMENT AND LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS NARROWLY FOCUSED OF SE-NW
BANDS WITH REDUCED UPDRAFT CORES AND LOWER RAINFALL RATES AND
AREAL COVERAGE...OR INTO LESS BUT BROADER BANDS. THE LATTER GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL OF RATES/FLUX HAVE A HIGH LIKLIHOOD OF PRODUCING
4-6" RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 4-6HRS WITH SOME LOCALIZED
SPOTS OF 8" POSSIBLE. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD FAVOR THIS
LATTER SOLUTION GIVEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ROLLING NORTHEAST
FROM BOTH BANDS HELPING TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGER BAND
FURTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD GALVESTON BAY/NORTHEAST BRAZORIA COUNTY.
THIS IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH RECENT HRRR/RAP SOLUTIONS BUT A BIT
TOO FAR SOUTHWEST WITH NO ACCOUNTING FOR ONGOING BAND IN FAR SE
TX...SO THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY BE FURTHER NORTHEAST
THAN THE HRRR/RAP SUGGEST.
SUMMARY...VERY MOIST/EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION NEAR INNER
CORE/INNER MOST BAND CONTINUE TO POSE LIKELY FLASH FLOODING
ESPECIALLY NEAR/ALONG THE TX COAST.
DISCUSSION...14Z SFC ANALYSIS DENOTES WEAK LOW NEAR LIVE
OAK/MCMULLIN COUNTIES WITH KCRP RADAR SHOWING MCV SOUTHWEST OVER
DUVAL COUNTY SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE CONVECTION THAT HAS
ANCHORED IT STARTS TO WANE A BIT FROM JIM WELLS TO LEE COUNTY.
STILL WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THIS VICINITY AND GIVEN STRONG
MST CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS WELL AS OFF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION
THOUGH WEAKENING WITH TIME. MOISTURE SOUNDINGS ARE INCREDIBLY
DEEP WITH TPWS AOA 2.6" SUPPORTED BY KCRP/KBRO 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
GPS NETWORK IN THE AREA..SO NO COLD POOL/OUTFLOW PROPAGATION WILL
BE EXPECTED SUPPORTING STATIONARY CELLS/STATIC ASCENT LOCATIONS.
CONVERGENCE MOTIONS NEAR THE CENTER MAY SHIFT A BIT WEST AS THE
MCV SHIFTS THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE RIDGING TO THE
WEST WILL DELAY/REDUCE WESTWARD MOTIONS TOO MUCH REINFORCING MORE
OF AN ELONGATED N-S MID-LEVEL TROF. LIMITING DEEPEST INSTABILITY
WILL REDUCE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY FROM 1.5"/HR TO 1.0" OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT DURATION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR FLASH FLOODING
TO BE LIKELY WITH 6HR TOTALS OVER 4-6" POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE
BEST MST CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY IS NOT AS OBSTRUCTED ON THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE MCV IN JIM HOGG/BROOKS AND S DUVAL/JIM
WELLS COUNTY.
GOES-16 10.3UM AND 1-MINUTE VISIBLE SUITE SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE N-S WESTERN GULF INNER BAND. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BAND SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHWARD TRAINING THOUGH
SOME STRONG SSELY INFLOW AT THE SURFACE MAY SUPPORT SOME SMALL
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE BAND. DEEP SURFACE MOISTURE AND HEAT
OVER THE OCEAN SUPPORTS GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER 2500 J/KG
ALLOWING FOR RAIN RATES/1HR TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3"/HR GIVEN THE
TPWS OVER. EVEN AT SHORT DURATION OR REDUCED TRAINING (IF
EASTWARD PROPAGATION IS SIGNFICANT) WHERE IT INTERSECTS WITH THE
COAST (LIKLY NEAR MATAGORDA BAY) IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL LIKELY
HAVE FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL.
THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/CONVECTIVE RESPONSE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TX COAST...BUT SUBSEQUENT MPD WILL
ADDRESS THIS AREA SHORTLY.
That eastern band doesn't appear to be moving anytime soon for Beaumont. There is activity forming to the ssw moving in, but it is up in the air if it will become sustained for the afternoon/evening. The inflow is cut off from the east band...
On GOES-16 IR it looks like good convection is beginning to fire out over the Gulf east of Corpus and possibly closing the gap between the band feeding into East Texas and the complex just inland of Corpus. We'll see if this can continue propagating northward. WPC seems pretty confident that the "zipper" is going to close around us eventually. Either that or they are just going down with this QPF ship.
sau27 wrote:On GOES-16 IR it looks like good convection is beginning to fire out over the Gulf east of Corpus and possibly closing the gap between the band feeding into East Texas and the complex just inland of Corpus. We'll see if this can continue propagating northward. WPC seems pretty confident that the "zipper" is going to close around us eventually. Either that or they are just going down with this QPF ship.
The scenario has been a little weird. There's circulation, but the Beaumont band is no longer acting like a band. We've been in the slot with very little rain.
There's a line now approaching I-10 near Katy that looks robust heading NNW. Too complex and weird to forecast. Nowcast with you're eye on the radar. Be prepared just in case.
High water rescue calls now coming in here in Beaumont for the 2nd day in a row. Road closures are taking place at areas of I-10 and feeder roads. MLK underpasses closed along with the Irving at MLK underpass. This rain has got to stop. We've had enough. It just is not budging.
H-town needs to look out. Convergence bands setting up now as heating is kicking-in. Should continue this afternoon and then we'll have to keep a very close watch on the overnight trends.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1123 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>438-201630-
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-
Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-
Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Caldwell, Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham,
Navasota, Conroe, The Woodlands, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu,
Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton,
Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony,
Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton,
League City, Friendswood, Devers, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios,
Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque,
Surfside Beach, and Galveston
1123 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018
With deep Gulf moisture in place, conditions are somewhat favorable
for tropical funnel clouds.
Funnel clouds in this environment are usually short lived and
rarely reach the ground. However, if one is observed be prepared
to seek shelter if it appears to descend to the ground as they
can produce strong winds that can produce minor damage.
Similarly, waterspouts are also possible and can be hazardous to
mariners. If a waterspout is observed, move at a 90 degree angle
from its apparent motion and seek shelter until it has passed or
dissipates.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018
.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings are mostly prevailing across the region early this
afternoon. We could see some of these lift later today in between
areas of rainfall...esp closer to the coast. With daytime
heating, we're starting to shra filling in on radar and expect
intermittent precip throughout the day. Bands are generally fast
moving and even the weaker shra can throw out some 20-30kt gusts.
Otherwise, kept TAFs short/generic and will amend as short term
trends are established. Model guidance, even the short term
guidance, hasn't been of much help as of late so prefer not to
chase those. 47
FreeportTX35 wrote:Man that band just won't move away from the Beaumont area!
It actually looks like its shifting slightly east rather than coming west. My wife said we got a good 20 minute heavy rain in Cypress. Hope everybody stays safe over in the Beaumont area.
The SOC has increased its readiness level from level IV (normal conditions) to level III (increased readiness) beginning at 10 a.m. on Tuesday, June 19.
State resources engaged in the emergency response effort include:
Texas Department of Public Safety
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Texas Highway Patrol
Texas Department of Transportation
Texas A&M Forest Service
Texas Parks and Wildlife Department
Texas Department of State Health Services
Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
Texas Task Force 1
Texas Military Department
BEAUMONT is completely under water. Rescues underway. Water now entering peoples homes and businesses. If you travel this way take it slow. East of winnie to the la border has been inundated by flood waters. Stay safe my Beaumont, Port Arthur and Orange neighbors. We will get through this.
