MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May
I was afraid of this - from today’s AFD:
While we could see an increase of disturbances from the pattern, a lot will depend on the cap, which is progged to remain strong.
We just can’t catch a break. So much for that above normal precip outlook for May...
While we could see an increase of disturbances from the pattern, a lot will depend on the cap, which is progged to remain strong.
We just can’t catch a break. So much for that above normal precip outlook for May...
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed May 09, 2018 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
My high today was 93F. Dropping off now.
This afternoon's AFD is even worse. No rain on the horizon. I suppose Mother Nature forgot it's May and not August. Geez.
SE TX is caught between the two systems and the weak ridging between the two lows will keep the weather generally quiet with little day to day change.
SE TX is caught between the two systems and the weak ridging between the two lows will keep the weather generally quiet with little day to day change.
If this keeps up until the blast furnace spins up, I'm worried we are going to have summer of 2011 again. Super hot and no rain.
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redneckweather
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Guess what everyone? It is May in Southeast Texas which means it is summertime. Just like every May, the furnace is turned up and the rain chances go down. Absolutely nothing new. Bring on the heat!
No, it's not. The normal May rainfall is 5.09 inches, the third highest average behind the months of June and October. June has the highest normal rainfall of 5.93 inches.redneckweather wrote:Guess what everyone? It is May in Southeast Texas which means it is summertime. Just like every May, the furnace is turned up and the rain chances go down. Absolutely nothing new. Bring on the heat!
So historically, it is something new, but these dry springs have become more common recently. Perhaps our climate is changing...
If we don't get much rain in May and June, then yes, we could be in for a pretty terrible summer as feedback mechanisms take hold, similar to 2011.
From today's AFD, status quo:
Rain chances will remain very minimal/nil through the forecast as the persistent/strong cap is progged to stay in place. That being said, however, one the few straws we can grasp at is hinting that isolated showers may be possible over our SW counties as slightly deeper moisture moves in from the Gulf early Friday. Otherwise... long-range models keep trending dry with our next best chances of rain holding off until next Weds/Thurs.
Rain chances will remain very minimal/nil through the forecast as the persistent/strong cap is progged to stay in place. That being said, however, one the few straws we can grasp at is hinting that isolated showers may be possible over our SW counties as slightly deeper moisture moves in from the Gulf early Friday. Otherwise... long-range models keep trending dry with our next best chances of rain holding off until next Weds/Thurs.
May and June have the greatest amount of rain totals in CLL - October is close behind. The last couple of years we went extreme and exceeded 10 inches in May...and stayed relatively cool.redneckweather wrote:Guess what everyone? It is May in Southeast Texas which means it is summertime. Just like every May, the furnace is turned up and the rain chances go down. Absolutely nothing new. Bring on the heat!
Payback time, it looks like this May. Put down fertilizer with 2% iron yesterday. May have to hunker down early.
Long range models look high and dry for us, worse than yesterday's forecast. GFS provides a trolling reminder that hurricane season is on the horizon. 
Dew point is way up today from the mid 50s to upper 60s. Misery Index shooting on up. Help any neighbors still displaced from Harvey.
Dew point is way up today from the mid 50s to upper 60s. Misery Index shooting on up. Help any neighbors still displaced from Harvey.
Per the HGX weather bot, the Euro is not seeing the same ridging that GFS sees as we move into next week.
https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/9 ... 9827218433
No tangible relief from dry weather, just a faint glimmer of hope.
Critical, because the next month is when we have opportunities to stock up with rain for summer. Ridge building this early is not a good omen.
https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/9 ... 9827218433
No tangible relief from dry weather, just a faint glimmer of hope.
Critical, because the next month is when we have opportunities to stock up with rain for summer. Ridge building this early is not a good omen.
Home office is leaning toward the GFS solution. Drat!
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Onshore winds will continue to bring low level moisture into SE TX
tonight. The additional moisture coupled with lighter winds
overnight will again lead to some patchy fog over mainly the W-SW
parts of the region. PW values will increase overnight and
eventually climb to around 1.25 inches by mid-day Friday. A very
weak disturbance will move up the coast tonight and this feature
coupled with the increase in moisture, broadly divergent upper
level winds and some speed convergence near the coast will yield
some isolated showers. Coverage will be isolated at best and most
areas will likely remain dry but can`t rule out some weak showers.
The deeper moisture will move east Friday night and Saturday and
rain chances will also shift east. Will carry some isolated rain
showers on Saturday over the extreme east but then conditions
begin to dry out areawide.
Sunday looks rain free at this time with high temperatures near
90. The GFS and ECMWF differ rather significantly for the first
half of next week as the GFS develops weak ridging over Texas
between an upper trough over the western US and a weak upper low
over FL that tries to retrograde west. The ECMWF tries, but fails
to develop much of a ridge and keeps the flow semi-zonal with weak
short waves moving across the southern plains that eventually
phase with the retrograding upper low. This creates a weakness
over the state by Wednesday with a return of showers and storms
for the second half of next week. Have leaned toward the
more consistent GFS which leaves the extended forecast dry and
increasingly warmer. 43
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Onshore winds will continue to bring low level moisture into SE TX
tonight. The additional moisture coupled with lighter winds
overnight will again lead to some patchy fog over mainly the W-SW
parts of the region. PW values will increase overnight and
eventually climb to around 1.25 inches by mid-day Friday. A very
weak disturbance will move up the coast tonight and this feature
coupled with the increase in moisture, broadly divergent upper
level winds and some speed convergence near the coast will yield
some isolated showers. Coverage will be isolated at best and most
areas will likely remain dry but can`t rule out some weak showers.
The deeper moisture will move east Friday night and Saturday and
rain chances will also shift east. Will carry some isolated rain
showers on Saturday over the extreme east but then conditions
begin to dry out areawide.
Sunday looks rain free at this time with high temperatures near
90. The GFS and ECMWF differ rather significantly for the first
half of next week as the GFS develops weak ridging over Texas
between an upper trough over the western US and a weak upper low
over FL that tries to retrograde west. The ECMWF tries, but fails
to develop much of a ridge and keeps the flow semi-zonal with weak
short waves moving across the southern plains that eventually
phase with the retrograding upper low. This creates a weakness
over the state by Wednesday with a return of showers and storms
for the second half of next week. Have leaned toward the
more consistent GFS which leaves the extended forecast dry and
increasingly warmer. 43
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srainhoutx
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Reviewing the overnight Ensembles, I do not see any significant change in our sensible weather pattern through at least the 25th which takes us into Memorial Day Weekend. There is a slight chance of a stray seabreeze shower or two over the next several days and a mid/upper low meanders just West of the Florida Peninsula and a bit of deeper tropical moisture surges from the NW Caribbean Sea into the Gulf.
That said there are some indications that High Latitude Blocking may occur toward the end of the month and reshuffle the Upper Air pattern a bit possibly bring a better shot at some rain late May/early June. As we have seen over many years, it getting close to time when the Central America Monsoonal Trough begins to drift N and perhaps some of the solutions the GFS/GEFS are "sniffing' is some sort of Monsoonal Gyre developing. More on that possibility in our Hurricane Central Section in the days ahead.
That said there are some indications that High Latitude Blocking may occur toward the end of the month and reshuffle the Upper Air pattern a bit possibly bring a better shot at some rain late May/early June. As we have seen over many years, it getting close to time when the Central America Monsoonal Trough begins to drift N and perhaps some of the solutions the GFS/GEFS are "sniffing' is some sort of Monsoonal Gyre developing. More on that possibility in our Hurricane Central Section in the days ahead.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I think I need to take a break and just stop reading the NWS discussions. It’s just a torrent of bad news. At this rate, we won’t see any more rain until June. This may end up being one of the driest Mays on record.
Get ready for the summer from hell. It’s coming.
Get ready for the summer from hell. It’s coming.
High and dry.
The good news with the ridging is that humidity levels will not be super high with admixing, keeping the heat index reasonable...especially in the evenings.
https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/9 ... 3513437184
Canadian says *maybe* a few showers in 7-10 days.
The good news with the ridging is that humidity levels will not be super high with admixing, keeping the heat index reasonable...especially in the evenings.
https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/9 ... 3513437184
Canadian says *maybe* a few showers in 7-10 days.
Yeah, we built up a stockpile of water in the reservoirs and ground the last couple of years with deluge-like rains this time of year. Don't see a 2011 in our future, but buckle up!jasons wrote:I think I need to take a break and just stop reading the NWS discussions. It’s just a torrent of bad news. At this rate, we won’t see any more rain until June. This may end up being one of the driest Mays on record.
Get ready for the summer from hell. It’s coming.
This is why I NEVER complain about weather in the winter in Texas.
2011 started dry and it was also warmer. 2009 and 2010 were below average in rainfall total. A drought occurred from 2008 to 2014. 2015 to 2017 were wetter than normal.DoctorMu wrote:Yeah, we built up a stockpile of water in the reservoirs and ground the last couple of years with deluge-like rains this time of year. Don't see a 2011 in our future, but buckle up!jasons wrote:I think I need to take a break and just stop reading the NWS discussions. It’s just a torrent of bad news. At this rate, we won’t see any more rain until June. This may end up being one of the driest Mays on record.
Get ready for the summer from hell. It’s coming.
This is why I NEVER complain about weather in the winter in Texas.
All you need to read from the AFD. See y’all in a week to re-assess:
DISCUSSION...
Very quiet weather across SETX this next week. Subsidence should be the meteorological word of the day.
DISCUSSION...
Very quiet weather across SETX this next week. Subsidence should be the meteorological word of the day.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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The doldrums of May through mid September in SE TX.
110 days until Meteorological Fall.
110 days until Meteorological Fall.
Team #NeverSummer
I posted this in the Hurricane Forum, but since nothing else is going on, thought I'd post it here too, as the coming El Nino will affect our weather in other ways as well:
https://www.weatherbell.com/may-hurricane-season-update
https://www.weatherbell.com/may-hurricane-season-update