MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

[unome]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1101 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas for...
East central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 100 PM CDT.

* At 1101 AM CDT, gauge reports indicated up to one inch of rain has already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northwestern Pasadena, Deer Park, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Cloverleaf, Channelview, Barrett, Highlands, Crosby, Northshore, Lake Houston Dam, Houston Ship Channel, Hunterwood, Sheldon, El Dorado / Oates Prairie, East Houston, San Jacinto State Park and Lake Houston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

[CrashTestDummy]

Looks like there's a line starting to form along a seabreeze that's headed our way. Probably have rain here in northeastern Brazoria County in the next 15-20 mins.

[jasons2k]

Today looked the most promising, as a squall line of dark clouds was moving-in from the south...and as it approached...it split apart and I got nothing.

[cperk]

I got another 1.2 inches here in Richmond today greatly appreciated.

[srainhoutx]

Looking like just a 1/3 of an inch in the gauge. Just shy of an inch since Sunday. We'll take every drop.

[Cromagnum]

Less than 0.3 in my area for the entire week. Better than zero, but basically didn't help anything.

[Katdaddy]

Picked up .81" today. The yard is looking refreshing again.

[DoctorMu]

Enjoying the North Carolina summer weather while it lasts - a few spotty showers tomorrow and Friday.

The blast furnace turns on this holiday weekend with ridging building.

That should keep the predicted tropical system in the east/central Gulf.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Current radar imagery shows scattered thunderstorms further
inland this afternoon from Burleson east into Walker County, while
remnant showers remain situated further south to along the coast.
Occasionally, an isolated shower or thunderstorm has developed
over the Gulf waters before pushing inland, and expect this trend
to continue into the evening. Overall motion of the precipitation
is towards the northwest. A consensus of the short term model
guidance hints at most of the precipitation dissipating shortly
after sunset. The upper-level disturbance that has remained
situated over southeast Texas today will translate eastward
through the overnight hours. Winds will become light and variable
tonight as a region of surface high pressure builds in. Upper-
level ridging will also shift east into central Texas Thursday
morning. This will help to lower precipitable water values (PWs)
Thursday and into the beginning of the weekend, with PWs falling
to between 1.4-1.6 inches. This will allow for less overall
coverage of showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the
week, though the chance for precipitation will still be possible.

Hathaway

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The main weather threat heading into the weekend will be
abnormally warm conditions. The upper-level ridge that nudges
into the region earlier in the week will push overhead into the
weekend. Therefore, as we move into the holiday weekend, conditions
will become very warm for this time of year. Relative humidity
values should reach into the 90s and high temperatures are
forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s. Sunday apparent temperatures
should range between 98-103 degrees. The apparent temperature or
"heat index" is defined as an approximation of how hot it "feels"
for a given combination of air temperature and relative humidity.
Expecting apparent temperatures to remain high between 98-103
degrees through the middle of next week. As a result, these
unseasonable warm conditions will flirt with record high
temperatures. Record high maximum temperatures for this weekend
are listed in the Climate Section below.

Hathaway

[Katdaddy]

Another round of tropical showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain today. Already seeing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the Upper TX Coast this morning.

[jasons2k]

I woke-up to a small shower with .05". Nice way to start the day.

[Cromagnum]

Rosharon has once again missed the mark. A nice storm formed to the NE and SE of us, but both cells are moving due west leaving us dry slotted yet again.

[DoctorMu]

Much weaker seabreeze today. Only going to get hotter and drier for the next week. Hope the forecast changes. Maybe 0.1 in of rain yesterday. Nothing coming this way this afternoon.

[unome]

we just had another downpour, easily 5-7" for the last week - other nearby gauges show only 1.5-3"

I'm a happy camper, no watering for a bit at least

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[Katdaddy]

A 40% chance of showers and a few thunderstorms along the Upper TX Coast today. Rain chances decrease for Saturday and Sunday as deeper moisture moves E and ridging builds across SE TX. Memorial Day is looking mostly sunny and hot.
Invest 90L is still likely to become the first named tropical cyclone of the 2018 hurricane season. Current model runs have a landfall between SE LA and NW FL. This would have very little effect on the Upper TX Coast except for sunny and hot weather due to subsidence and slightly higher seas offshore.

[tireman4]

Sub Tropical Trouble

[DoctorMu]

Sub Tropical Trouble

Yep - that's been on the radar for a week. The good and bad news is that the ridge will keep it away from Texas. High, dry, hot...and it's not even June yet. Austin will probably break 100°F in the coming week.

[srainhoutx]

I received measurable rainfall for the last 5 days, excluding today. I am grateful for every drop that fell. The sprinkler system was turned off last Sunday morning. Happy Memorial Weekend folks. Never forget why we celebrate this time...

[Katdaddy]

God’s skies are so very amazing and dynamic. Beautiful crepuscular rays from a tropical cumulus this evening.

[DoctorMu]

God’s skies are so very amazing and dynamic. Beautiful crepuscular rays from a tropical cumulus this evening.

East of I-45 they are seeing some wrap around showers from Alberto, moving SSE. Hoping to get lucky tomorrow.

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Lower level high pressure planted over the northwestern Gulf with
the very slight northwestward movement of Alberto and southwestern
upper ridging keeping eastern Texas under a pronounced northerly
flow pattern. Warm and muggy overnight conditions will be more
tolerable per an evening southerly breeze. As winds weaken below 5
knots under mainly clear skies...the probabilities for rural county
fog will be on the rise. Early Sunday patchy fog development will
likely be focused just north and west of Galveston Bay (sans the
metro area of course). As Alberto nears the Florida Panhandle
tomorrow afternoon there may be a weak disturbance that rotates
around his backside and clips extreme (south)eastern Texas. If
this weaker PVA does pass through from mid morning through late
afternoon it will be moving into a heated, fairly moist and
unstable environment. Thus, have low end POPs in place Sunday for
the southern two thirds of the forecast area to account for the
daily evolution of more numerous late morning into afternoon
scattered showers and thunder. The main threats with the strongest
storms will be downburst winds. Small hail production and very
brief heavy rainfall rates leading to short term nuisance low-
lying area/roadway flooding.


Other than some slight chances for sea breeze convection Tuesday...
this near term through the extended period forecast strictly becomes
a temperature-themed affair. Relatively drier air moving in on
Monday and an amplifying northern Mexico upper ridge across the
state will likely place us under a heat wave throughout the
remaining days of the month. Subsequent days of greater than 90F
will likely break the most frequent days above 90s for the month
of May (currently at 15 for the month at IAH)...so odds are very
good that this year will replace 2003 for the top ranking. On a
more serious note...heat indices will certainly be dangerously
high. With maximum temperatures forecast in the middle to upper
90s by mid to late week, lower to middle 70 PM dew points,
relatively weaker winds and ample sun will push afternoon heat
indices into the Heat Advisory realm of 108 F or greater. Of
course, hydration and remaining in cooler environments during the
afternoon hours is key to your health. No matter your physical
conditioning it is recommended to limit any outdoor activity
during this coming week. 31