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srainhoutx wrote:NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 23m23 minutes ago
Keep up with the forecast today. Scattered showers and storms possible with a few strong storms possible late this afternoon and again late tonight.

NWS Houston is the best bet...however....

I wouldn't give up on some rainfall in the early more hours of Saturday. The latest (12Z) HRRR suggests a line of showers and storms develop along the frontal boundary. HGX eluded to this possibility in their morning Area Forecast Discussion.

At least there are some showers out west....

The 12Z 3km NAM suggests the frontal boundary will offer the best chances of showers and storms as the develop along the front in the very early morning hours of Saturday.

We know about Cap issues....

Reed Timmer Today....

Hah. Houston is going be bone dry in the morning. Especially points south. I'm planning on busting out sprinklers tomorrow.

I will say this.....someone in the HGX area will get rain...

00
FXUS64 KHGX 131605
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1105 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Activity beginning to flare up to our W/NW along a prefrontal trof
this morning/early afternoon...likely with the help of an embedded
upper level disturbance from the the SW. The cap seems holding but
will keep a close eye on things as the afternoon progresses. Grids
appear to be on track with the timing and such for the short-term,
and incoming models still hinting that the more active time period
should be tonight with the passage of the cold front itself. 41

&&

Tornado Watch coming shortly for portions N/NE Texas and Oklahoma...does not include the SE Texas Region.
Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...north central Texas through eastern
Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri and northwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131739Z - 131945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop early to mid
afternoon from north central Texas through east Oklahoma and
southeast Kansas posing a risk for very large hail, damaging wind
and a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows boundary-layer cumulus
increasing along sharpening dryline and dryline/cold front merger
from southeast KS through central OK and north central TX. Cloud
breaks and low-level theta-e advection is promoting destabilization,
and objective analysis shows a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in
warm sector. The atmosphere still appears capped by an inversion
located around 800 mb associated with warm air at the base of the
elevated mixed layer. However deep ascent with a lead shortwave
trough continues to act on this layer, and should eventually erode
the inversion such that surface-based storms will initiate along the
dryline during the next couple hours. The 18Z Fort Worth RAOB showed
substantial cooling in the capping layer compared to the 12Z. While
deep-layer shear is very strong (50-55 kt), VWP data continues to
indicate veer-back-veer characteristics, possibly due to the effects
of the lead shortwave trough. Low-level hodographs are initially
large with current 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 250+ m2/s2.
However, some decrease in 0-1 km hodograph size should occur as the
low-level jet shifts east. Nevertheless, the overall environment is
supportive of supercells and bowing segments capable of very large
hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes this afternoon.

..Dial/Hart.. 04/13/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

I’m betting the cap holds all day, the prefrontal trough takes away most of the convergence, so any “storms” that accompany the front will be pretty pathetic, and we’ll be lucky just to get some rains.

Tornado Watch....

053
FXUS64 KHGX 131758
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1258 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.AVIATION...
A line of showers is slowly progressing into the area from the
northwest. Additionally, a line of clearing skies is progressing
northward from the coastline as gusty southerly winds continue.
Any current VFR ceilings are not expected to persist through the
afternoon as the low clouds and showers continue to move
southeastward. Scattered showers will continue until the late
afternoon, when some showers may become isolated thunderstorms.
There will be a brief break in precipitation this evening. A line
of thunderstorms will move into the area from the northwest late
tonight through early Saturday morning. Some of these storms may
be strong, with severe winds and hail possible. IFR ceilings are
possible during any heavy rainfall, with visibilities lowering to
5 miles.

Winds will decrease below 10 kts as a cold front approaches from
the northwest behind the line of convection. The cold front will
reach CLL around 06Z and progress offshore between 12Z and 15Z.
Strong northeasterly winds will carry through the day Saturday. 22

HGX Radar Update 2 pm

PDS Tornado Watch for portions of NE Texas

Interesting Day 6 to 10 Outlook from the afternoon Updated Climate Predication Center as we head beyond mid April. I have a feeling looking at the upper air pattern suggested from the CPC even in the Week 3 to Week 4 Experimental Outlooks, severe weather chances may be the typical Spring theme as the month of May nears. Also, the latest guidance trends suggest areas around Huntsville/Conroe may see some upper 30's readings Sunday morning with low to mid 40's possible along and N of the I-10 Corridor.

Cap holding, so far...

tireman4 wrote:Cap holding, so far...

Yep - complete bust for this afternoon.

Maybe we'll get lucky with the front arrival.

Is it really a bust if nobody expected anything to happen?

Cromagnum wrote:Is it really a bust if nobody expected anything to happen?

I did - but I'm up in College Station. 80% chance. However, there may be the frontal line moving through after midnight,