Texaspirate11 wrote:This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED
NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.
I wouldn't read too much into this right now for hurricane season as so many other factors play a role. However, what I do wonder is how this plays into our spring storm and rainfall season. A warmer western gulf means more moisture and unstable air streaming in.
I believe more so than hurricane season our nws is concerned about us getting thru Spring/Flooding....they have mentioned this tidbit about "warmer than usual" quite a bit ....I dont believe anyones 8 ball predictions on hurricane season this far out....
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Texaspirate11 wrote:This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED
NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.
I would think the warmer Gulf of Mexico is more favorable for rain and severe weather.
Texaspirate11 wrote:This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED
NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.
I would think the warmer Gulf of Mexico is more favorable for rain and severe weather.
I believe more so than hurricane season our nws is concerned about us getting thru Spring/Flooding....they have mentioned this tidbit about "warmer than usual" quite a bit ....I dont believe anyones 8 ball predictions on hurricane season this far out....
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared! Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Active weather day across our Region with a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms as a slow moving cold front advances toward SE Texas by this evening. The overnight guidance slowed the progression of that front by about 6-8 hours allowing for thunderstorm development further West that place most of our area in the Marginal Risk Outlined Area. A very strong jet streak/speed max is quickly moving across Mexico toward Texas and that feature looks to be the trigger for rapid thunderstorm development this afternoon. The greatest risk, although not that high is for damaging storm winds and small hail. The front should be near the Coast around midnight ushering in cooler and drier air Tuesday with an additional shot of some cooler and drier air on Wednesday.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Mesoscale Discussion 0108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CST Mon Mar 05 2018
Areas affected...CENTRAL AND EAST TX INTO LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051731Z - 052000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is likely to develop across parts
of central and east Texas eastward into Louisiana. Hail and strong
wind gusts will be the primary threat. Weather watch issuance
appears unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
through the Arklatex extending southwestward into northeast and
central Texas. Convection is developing along the front. Surface
winds ahead of the front are veered to the southwest with dewpoints
in the mid 60s F. This is contributing to a pocket of moderate
instability with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
range according to the RAP. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport
shows some veering of the winds with height with 0-6 km shear
estimated near 40 kt. Although deep-layer shear likely weakens with
southwestward extend along the front, the shear environment should
be enough to support a marginal severe threat this afternoon. Hail
will be possible with the stronger updrafts. A few strong wind gusts
will be possible as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen over
the next few hours.
The CF just got to Greenvine in SW WA County. Good wind shift with cool, dry air. The convection looks like it'll miss us to the east and west.
Edit: a good cell just blew up to our west headed this way. We can almost always use rain.
NWS Hou
Update: As of 4 PM, the City of Galveston has set a preliminary record high temperature of 80 degrees. This breaks the old record of 77 degrees, which was set 138 years ago back in 1880!!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared! Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
I'm about to turn the sprinklers on. What a colossal bust. To add insult to injury, just got a popup on my phone from Twitter - In case you missed it: "David Tillman's photo: It looks like a wet day Monday...." Grrr.
I hit some very heavy rain on the beltway heading home from the office in West Houston. But than it was like I crossed a line and every thing dried up. Just barely a drizzle at the house in Stafford. And nothing since.
HGX was worried this morning that the CAP was way too strong to break. That verified. Those lucky enough to get some rainfall, count your blessings. I'm afraid this may be a harbinger of things to come for the next couple of months.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Only a narrow line of showers and a few thunderstorms moving across SE TX this evening. Stronger storms are NE of the Houston metro area. Get ready for some awesome weather days across SE TX from tomorrow through Thursday.
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Temps in the 50s across much of SE TX with showers and scattered thunderstorms are moving across the Upper TX Coast this morning. Some additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the morning before the activity pushes offshore. Skies will begin to clear this afternoon with several days of cool and dry weather to end the week.
Yea, I'm definitely not complaining that things didn't pan out as forecasted since we have had PLENTY of rain here in Southeast, TX. My property is waterlogged and will take awhile to dry out. Jason, I highly doubt you had to turn on your sprinkler. lol
Cromagnum wrote:Why is anyone mad about lack of rain? We had a solid month of it and some of our yards are still water logged. We could do for a couple of dry weeks.
1) I had my yard treated yesterday and it needed to be watered-in. I was counting on that rain to do it. Rain water is ideal. My sprinkler backflow got destroyed by the freeze, even though it was drained and wrapped. I just discovered this yesterday when I went to turn it back on. So, I had to move a sprinkler around the lawn, and I have a big lawn, so it takes some work. I have to finish today.
2) Summer is coming and we’ll take what we can get. As you saw by the recent drought monitor reports, it won’t take long at all to dry us out and put us back in drought conditions. Every drop helps (to a point)...
redneckweather wrote:Yea, I'm definitely not complaining that things didn't pan out as forecasted since we have had PLENTY of rain here in Southeast, TX. My property is waterlogged and will take awhile to dry out. Jason, I highly doubt you had to turn on your sprinkler. lol
Had to. Had a lawn full of lawn treatments that require to be watered-in. It was timed for the big rain that never happened, so yes I was watering last night. Sprinkler system still busted from the freeze (thank you Jack Frost) so I had to do the old fashioned way with a hose and sprinkler chess.
