MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see the return of chilly and possibly wet weather the first full week of March in the longer range GEFS Ensemble schemes. The Teleconnection Indices continue to advertise a extremely negative Arctic Oscillation and extremely negative North Atlantic Oscillation as a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event that happen last week. This sort of Northern Hemispheric Blocking pattern is capable of ushering in much colder air across a large expanse of North America including Texas.

[srainhoutx]

We might need to keep those jackets handy as the Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 Outlook suggests below normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation along the Texas Coast.

[DoctorMu]

We might need to keep those jackets handy as the Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 Outlook suggests below normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation along the Texas Coast.

Arctic at record warmth (up to 40°F above normal) and cold air displaced throughout the northern hemisphere. Our turn?

[snowman65]

Im not even seeing anything below 50 for the first half of March....this is the strangest winter I can recall in my 51 years.

[jasons2k]

Nice discussion, and first time I have seen a hashtag in an AFD discussion. Times are changing...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A warm/humid day is expected across SE TX today as we await the
arrival of the next cold front late tonight/early Thurs morning.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms will be possible by the afternoon
across mainly the northern half of the CWA as this boundary app-
roaches from NCTX. The bulk of the activity associated with this
system will likely be concentrated along the front (or prefront-
al trough) itself. Given the cap already in place/better support
aloft north of the area/limited instabilities, scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected with FROPA.

Weak upper ridging along with building surface high pressure de-
veloping in the wake of the front should give us fairly seasonal
temps/lower humidities through the end of this week. The weekend
forecast still looks to be in flux as onshore winds return along
with low-level moisture. POPS set to return to the area in earn-
est by Sun as low-level winds strengthen and disturbances in the
re-established SW flow aloft approach from the WSW. Rain chances
should continue through Mon/Mon night as the next cold front be-
gins to trek down from the Southern Plains. Thereafter, not that
much confidence with what happens next as long-range models keep
waffling. #SpringHasSprung 41

[Katdaddy]

The cool front is moving across SE TX this morning with only a narrow line of showers mainly N of Houston. This front will push off the coast today and usher in very nice cooler and drier weather with clearing skies. Spring has sprung.

[BlueJay]

What a lovely March 1st! I would say March is coming in like a lamb.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a chance for some showers and possibly some thunderstorms Sunday though next Tuesday before a bit stronger cold front arrives ushering in slightly below normal temperatures and a dry spell developing. Fortunately for drought parched California, it looks very unsettled with abundant mountain snow fall and potentially flooding rainfall at lower elevations.

[DoctorMu]

^Yep, potential for our friend NW flow to return and drive out the foggy boggies.

Two fronts Sunday night/Monday am and Tuesday night/Wed Am will stair step temps from seasonal to cooler than normal as we turn the corner on a new week. There's a chance of rain with the first front, but this is largely a chance to dry out a little, and prepare for spring gardening.


No freezing temps expected though late next week. Probably low to mid 40s for lows in HOU by next Thursday morning per 18z GFS run. Climo may say don't plant anything tender just yet...but I'd be surprised if we saw another freeze. There's always a chance a light frost in the Brazos Valley to begin Spring Break time...but that's about it.

[Katdaddy]

A beautiful dry and mild SE TX day on the way. Mostly sunny skies with some high clouds and high temps in the mid 70s. Increasing clouds Saturday with rain chances back in the picture for Saturday night through Tuesday morning.

[BlueJay]

It's Texas Independence Day! Fly your Texas flag on this beautiful March 2nd day!

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances are increasing beginning late Sunday night into next Tuesday. The guidance is becoming a bit more aggressive suggesting area wide chance of showers, some heavy with thunderstorms ahead and along our next cold front. I continue to see rather cool temperatures for early March with days where highs struggle to reach the low 60's and lows in the coldest spots may near 32 to 34F after next weeks cold front.

[srainhoutx]

While we await the next front and rainfall tomorrow and Monday, the Global guidance is suggesting a rather potent Southern Storm with a vigorous upper trough and surface low pressure system exiting the Southern Rockies into Texas and Oklahoma late next weekend. Behind this system is a shot of rather chilly air by early March standards.

[Texaspirate11]

This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.

[weatherrabbit]

Very Interesting..

[srainhoutx]

I wouldn't read too much into those warmer than normal SST's in the Gulf. The Gulf is always warm enough to support Tropical Cyclones. What we will need to watch is some of the seasonal forecast and the ENSO. It appears ENSO will likely be neutral at best during peak Hurricane Season in the North Atlantic Basin. The very long range ECWMF seasonal forecast suggest above normal pressures across the entire Atlantic Basin including the Gulf and below normal rainfall. No those seasonal forecasts will likely change in the next several months, but as of early March there is a lot of uncertainty on what the sensible may bring this summer.

[Katdaddy]

A beautiful satellite image across SE TX this afternoon with scattered low and mid level clouds. Getting a few rays of sun between the clouds with some isolated showers across S Central TX. Rain and thunderstorms ramp up for Monday and Monday night ahead of the next cool front but will be followed by beautiful, cooler, and drier weather from Tuesday through Thursday. Everything is turning increasingly green every day as Spring 2018 approaches.

[sau27]

This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.

I wouldn't read too much into this right now for hurricane season as so many other factors play a role. However, what I do wonder is how this plays into our spring storm and rainfall season. A warmer western gulf means more moisture and unstable air streaming in.

[mckinne63]

Our Bradford Pear tree is blooming! I have not seen so many blooms on it since Ike. It bloomed right after Ike, than it seemed to just stop blooming. Seeing some bluebonnets pop up in the gardens also, amongst the weeds Was a nice day today, nice breeze whilst we finished trimming the crepe myrtle. We were late this year on trimming, she was already starting to get lots of green.

[srainhoutx]

Sunday evening briefing from Jeff:

Showers and thunderstorms likely Monday afternoon and evening

The next cold front will be moving across the region Monday afternoon and evening providing another chance of rainfall. Moisture is on the increase with SE winds drawing Gulf moisture into the region this afternoon. Strong capping (warm mid level air) is preventing much thunderstorm development today and there is now well defined disturbance to our SW that looks like it could weaken the cap. Expect generally scattered showers moving inland off the Gulf this evening, overnight, and into early Monday.

Heating on Monday into the lower 80’s combined with cooling in the mid levels will help to erode the capping inversion. Frontal lift and the tail end of a trough across the central plains will help to lift the moist air mass resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Instability values are moderate by Monday afternoon with CAPE of 2,000-2,500 J/kg over the region so a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible with large hail and strong winds the most likely severe threats…even though the threat is low. Heavy rainfall also will be possible Monday afternoon and evening as moisture increases and storms may have a period of cell training. Think most areas will experience .5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall with a few locations seeing 2-3 inches where the strongest storms track and under any sustained cell training.

Cold front will move off the coast Tuesday morning ushering in a cool refreshing air mass with lows falling into the 40’s Wednesday and Thursday and highs in the 60’s. Moisture begins to return by Friday ahead of another disturbance that may result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms.