FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[srainhoutx]

Overall I believe the GEFS Super Blend Ensembles are handling medium range pattern the best we can expected with such an anomalous Rex Block currently underway in the N Pacific/Bering Sea/Siberia. The ECMWF and its ensembles have had troubles all Winter in my opinion beyond 5 days and even worse in the 10 to 15 day period. The morning Updated CPC GEFS Super Ensemble Analogs paint a deep Central/Eastern North American trough and Ridging of both the West and East Coasts in the Day 8+ timeframe.

[redneckweather]

Definitely agree with you there srain. I have followed the GFS and Euro closely this fall winter season in the medium/long range leading up to an event (depth of cold air in fronts in this case) and the Euro has been horrible 5+ days out all season long.

[tireman4]

And its baccckkkkk.....again..entertainment purposes...

[tireman4]

Brrrrr....I mean, for educational purposes only...but both those purples...

[srainhoutx]

Everything see as of this afternoon does not change my thinking when considering what our sensible weather may bring around February 7th into mid February. I see a Big spinning Upper Low (Polar Vortex) parked near Hudson Bay with spokes or waves of Arctic Air spilling across the Arctic into Canada and the Lower 48 throughout February. Think of that Upper Low near Hudson Bay as the Hub of a big wagon wheel and the spokes as shots of cold air with each spoke or wave becoming deeper and stronger in their push to the S, particularly after this weekend. Each successive cold front appears to penetrate further into Texas and eventually Louisiana near Valentine's Day. The initial shots or waves of cold air may be moisture starved, but as time progresses, the amplified MJO and associated Kelvin Wave creeps closer to the United States and Mexico. This is where I see the potential of Eastern Pacific mischief in the form of a Baja Upper low with disturbances embedded in both the sub tropical jet streaming across Mexico and Texas as well as the NW flow aloft. There are growing indications of NW Gulf coastal low/trough activity as we move deeper into February. That seems reasonable with all the teleconnection indices, MJO and Kelvin Wave forecasts as of today. I will add that this is a highly volatile upper air pattern across the Northern Hemisphere due the unusually strong Upper Ridge (Rex Block) across the N Pacific/Bering Sea/Siberia. This may be one of the strongest Upper Ridges we have seen since the 80's. They are highly unusual, but have happen in the past. Keep in mind this is the best reasonable outlook beyond 5 days that anyone can expect. Those "finer details" will certainly need adjustment as the days ahead unfold.

The attachment 01302018 12Z GEFS 312 gfs_T2ma_namer_47.png is no longer available

[harp]

Srain, are we looking at temps as cold as the last outbreak in your opinion?

[srainhoutx]

Srain, are we looking at temps as cold as the last outbreak in your opinion?

Possibly...potentially even colder, but we need a week to see exactly how things unfold once that Rex Block weakens as it surely will in about 5 days or so and exactly where the West Coast Ridging sets up. That said I do not believe winter is not done for our Region. The next 20 or so days are in our favor historically and climatologically speaking.

[harp]

I always appreciate your responses. When do you think this will start showing up in the operational models?

[srainhoutx]

I always appreciate your responses. When do you think this will start showing up in the operational models?

We are seeing some signs in the GFS/GEFS schemes already, but next week is when I will start paying closer attention... personally.

[harp]

Thank you again. I am in the New Orleans area, but always follow your forum because what you get in SE Texas, we usually get the next day. I know a few people here who follow your forum there in Houston.

[srainhoutx]

Thank you again. I am in the New Orleans area, but always follow your forum because what you get in SE Texas, we usually get the next day. I know a few people here who follow your forum there in Houston.

As many of us know, our followers extend well beyond the SE Texas area. We have members, followers/lurkers that stretch from Mexico to Florida and beyond. We are happy that those beyond our Region look to the KHOU Weather Forum for reliable and accurate weather information. It's because of all of our Pro Mets/Members that this online Weather Community has continued to grow over the last 15+ years.

[DoctorMu]

I always appreciate your responses. When do you think this will start showing up in the operational models?

We are seeing some signs in the GFS/GEFS schemes already, but next week is when I will start paying closer attention... personally.

Yep - the Ensemble agrees with GFS for now. Canada showing signs of accordance. We'll see.

[jasons2k]

I knew it was coming, not happy. My skin is dry again. I haven't had skin this dry since living in Lubbock. Lips are constantly red and burning, even with chap stick. The Norwegian hand lotion does wonders but if I miss a day, forget it.

I can't wait until the moist return flow becomes dominant again.

[DoctorMu]

I knew it was coming, not happy. My skin is dry again. I haven't had skin this dry since living in Lubbock. Lips are constantly red and burning, even with chap stick. The Norwegian hand lotion does wonders but if I miss a day, forget it.

I can't wait until the moist return flow becomes dominant again.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!


That will happen soon enough and lasts until like November. Next life, pick an Italian parent like I did! My skin is usually moist and kinda oily. When I was young, I had to take 2 showers a day to deal with the sweat and oil in the deep South. Yech.

Pro tip: Slow boil a huge pot(s) of water at the home on evenings when there is a low dew point...or use a humidifier with heated water. Add a tincture of fragrance. My wife has dry skin, so I sometimes do this.

[Heat Miser]

Bring forth the warmth. If I wanted uncomfortable winters I'd move north. We've been lucky these last few winters with basically no winters. Now, we're having an actual winter by Southeast Texas standards and I'm not liking it. Soon Spring will be upon us followed by glorious hot weather.

[ticka1]

looking for more winter type weather....

[harp]

I may not know what I am looking at, but the operational GFS doesn't seem to be picking up on this yet. Any thoughts or comments?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I may not know what I am looking at, but the operational GFS doesn't seem to be picking up on this yet. Any thoughts or comments?

I haven’t looked at the 18z but the 12z had a multi day winter storm and temps in the 20s around the 12th-14th

[harp]

It faded out on the 18Z.

[tireman4]

Just an FYI, Srain is a long rang specialist, so when he gives his forecasts, it is usually right on the mark. His forecasts draw rave reviews on here and S2K. When he says, do not plant yet, dont. This is an ever changing situation so please stay tuned here to he and the rest of the pro mets. They will guide you through this.