FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[don]

Latest GFS says what frozen precip? lol I feel pretty darn confident we have seen our winter excitement this winter season. Days are getting longer and the jasmine will be blooming mid February. Come on Spring time!

I wouldn’t be so sure on that... February tends to be our most favorable month for frozen precip, and the storm is still there...it’s expected this far out that the area of precip is going to change run to run. I’m not saying that a storm is guaranteed but with the pattern that we have been in this season it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we had another winter weather event.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Latest GFS says what frozen precip? lol I feel pretty darn confident we have seen our winter excitement this winter season. Days are getting longer and the jasmine will be blooming mid February. Come on Spring time!

I’d lay money you’re wrong on cold coming. I bet wxman57 and srain would too given all the ingredients in our favor.

[StormOne]

February is still Winter. Keep that in mind. Maybe last Winter's mild February has made February seem more Spring-like to some.

[srainhoutx]

Time to look a bit deeper into other features rather than focusing on the Deterministic and even Ensemble Guidance in the Medium to Longer Range with the extreme Blocking developing along the Northern Pacific into the Arctic. The computer schemes are going to struggle severely with such a strong Block like we have not seen in a longtime. The MJO as well as a very robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave is creating havoc over the Pacific Ocean and that Kelvin Wave suggests a very noisy Eastern Pacific sub tropic jet cross Texas and the Gulf Coast States starting next weekend and likely continuing until mid February.

Our Teleconnection Indices suggest a -AO (Arctic Oscillation), -WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation), -EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation), and a + PNA (Pacific North American) as February begins. That typically mean anywhere East of the Rockies can be cold and stormy. What we Know...very cold air will build across our Source Regions of Alaska/NW Canada into the Canadian Prairies where temperatures could reach -50F to near -60F. There appear to be two may storm tracks. One across the Northern tier of the United States and another further South along the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains. The wild card in attempting to forecast what our sensible weather in the future is that noisy sub tropical jet where we may see Baja Upper lows develop inducing Western/NW Gulf Coastal lows to develop pulling down even colder air into Texas/Louisiana particularly around the 7th and again near mid February. My best guess is we likely will see 3 to 4 more freezes, possibly over a multiday period in February. Now that we see the MJO and that CCKW entering into the pattern, I would not rule out some sort of wintry weather event or two before our climatological favored month for Winter Weather of February ends.

[srainhoutx]

Assuming the GFS warm bias and we are a week out and not even considering any wintry precipitation that may fall next Saturday night and Sunday, those are chilly temperatures by Texas standards. I'll be leaving my exterior pipes wrapped and not cutting back any freeze damaged plants...

[ticka1]

i know its probably too far out but what time frame we looking at for the next freezing cold?

[srainhoutx]

i know its probably too far out but what time frame we looking at for the next freezing cold?

Some locales mainly N and E of Metro Houston may see a light freeze tomorrow morning and possibly Wednesday, depending on how quickly our winds shift back around to onshore. As far as that potential Arctic Air, HGX gave a hint in their morning AFD that the possibility is beyond their current 10 day forecast.

The front continues to push south out into the Gulf and models
diverge quickly in the forecast. Confidence in forecast for Friday
through Sunday is low. GFS solution brings over-running moisture
Friday afternoon with light rain and embedded showers while the
ECMWF is slower with the over-running bringing it`s precipitation
in Saturday. Interestingly enough by 06z Sunday they both look
very similar with precipitation over the eastern areas and coastal
waters. Another cold front pushes through Sunday night ushering
cooler drier air for Monday. Looking at why some of the
differences - it appears to focus on how the Rex block in the
Central Pacific evolves along with the branch of the polar jet
over BC/ID/MT and the strong subtropical jet arcing up from Mexico
and along the Gulf Coast (coincidentally the current strength of
the very strong ridging over the Bering Sea and Eastern Russia is
in the top 1 percentile for the last 30 years and forecast to get
stronger by Wednesday which in turn leads to the question of an
arctic outbreak beyond day 10). The subtropical jet will likely be
the likely driver of the differences in the local forecast with a
series of disturbances racing eastward for this unsettled pattern
Fri-Sun.

[srainhoutx]

NWS‏Verified account @NWS · 13h13 hours ago NWS Retweeted NWSCPC

The weather pattern will be undergoing a significant change back to a warm west coast ridge and a bitter cold and snowy trough over the eastern half of the U.S. This transition will develop over the next 2 weeks.

[tireman4]

For those who have been on this board for a long time, you know the models will flip flop like crazy before the event. You all know that the models will "lose" the cold air days before the event. As our pro mets ( Srain, Wxman57, Andrew, Brooks, Belmer, Blake and others) and amateurs have stated, this cold air is coming. Be prepared and stay tuned here. Srain's long range forecast was spot on and will be the primer to study by as the days go by.

[harp]

Yeah, good point above. The cold air is not showing up on the GFS right now and it goes out to Feb. 14th.

[tireman4]

Arctic Air Reloading...Does not mean it is coming, but it is there....

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon Update continues to advertise a cross Polar flow and cold air building across our source Regions into the February 8th or so timeframe. The Precipitation Outlooks continue to suggest that roughly from just S of Central Texas along the Entire Texas and Louisiana Coasts may see above normal precip and that continues into the day 8 to 14 Range. If that cross Polar flow continues, I continue to see multiple shots of Arctic Air making it to the Gulf.

[harp]

Afternoon Update continues to advertise a cross Polar flow and cold air building across our source Regions into the February 8th or so timeframe. The Precipitation Outlooks continue to suggest that roughly from just S of Central Texas along the Entire Texas and Louisiana Coasts may see above normal precip and that continues into the day 8 to 14 Range. If that cross Polar flow continues, I continue to see multiple shots of Arctic Air making it to the Gulf.

So, it appears our chances for more frozen precip are still there for February?

[DoctorMu]

Afternoon Update continues to advertise a cross Polar flow and cold air building across our source Regions into the February 8th or so timeframe. The Precipitation Outlooks continue to suggest that roughly from just S of Central Texas along the Entire Texas and Louisiana Coasts may see above normal precip and that continues into the day 8 to 14 Range. If that cross Polar flow continues, I continue to see multiple shots of Arctic Air making it to the Gulf.

So, it appears our chances for more frozen precip are still there for February?

Probably last chance or two for the potent cold stuff. After mid-February light freezes are common, but Climo with rising sun angle dampen the frozen tundra massive freeze - teens. We can still see wintry mixes into early March. Per storms, north Texas will need to monitor wintry stuff around the 4-5th. CMC and GFS tease our area...but nothing even as far south as Buffalo and Hearne of icy/snowy nature yet.


Today and yesterday were Chamber of Commerce sunny days. I'd take it all year long. No A/C, sprinkler system to run, low dew point - exercise without dripping sweat. No complaints. Would not mind one last insect crushing cold snap.

We'll see.

[srainhoutx]

From a synoptic point of view, here we are sitting at the end of January when a typical PNA pattern is expected within the 3 long wave conceptual model and instead we have a rex block forming in the Pacific. In fact, GFS, GFE Ensemble, ECMWF, Canadian all have a 570dm high setting up over eastern Siberia just west of the Bering Straight by 12Z Wednesday. Just let that marinade for a moment. Now realize that this is outside the 30 year CFSR climate return interval. So this is not a typical winter time pattern and as such the extended forecast may undergo some changes for the end of the week. This holds true for any short waves moving within the flow that could impact the area as well as timing of fronts. Lastly when this block does break down, quite possible to get more arctic airmasses to move into the central and eastern U.S. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are in pretty good agreement with the next front coming through late Thursday into Friday. There is a chance of showers and then once the front moves through elevated showers may be possible into Friday. This is where the details could change because the models have short wave coming across the southern Plains late Saturday into Sunday which increases warm advection over the front, warm front moving north over night and then a cold front Sunday afternoon as the system moves east. The forecast will hold onto rain chances over the weekend with possible drying conditions going into Monday. Moisture return should not be enough for heavy rainfall nor severe weather since instability will be lacking. Forced ascent from upper level dynamics may support some stronger updrafts Saturday night into Sunday ahead of the cold front but not enough to warrant putting thunderstorms in the forecast. Lastly to squash any rumor of winter weather in the next 7-8 days, temperatures stay above freezing so no worries. Overpeck

[DoctorMu]

Low dew points and light northern advection. Expect the chance of light frost/possibly very light freeze tonight from CLL to Navasota and NW Harris and Conroe. Don't get caught napping!

[harp]

From a synoptic point of view, here we are sitting at the end of January when a typical PNA pattern is expected within the 3 long wave conceptual model and instead we have a rex block forming in the Pacific. In fact, GFS, GFE Ensemble, ECMWF, Canadian all have a 570dm high setting up over eastern Siberia just west of the Bering Straight by 12Z Wednesday. Just let that marinade for a moment. Now realize that this is outside the 30 year CFSR climate return interval. So this is not a typical winter time pattern and as such the extended forecast may undergo some changes for the end of the week. This holds true for any short waves moving within the flow that could impact the area as well as timing of fronts. Lastly when this block does break down, quite possible to get more arctic airmasses to move into the central and eastern U.S. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are in pretty good agreement with the next front coming through late Thursday into Friday. There is a chance of showers and then once the front moves through elevated showers may be possible into Friday. This is where the details could change because the models have short wave coming across the southern Plains late Saturday into Sunday which increases warm advection over the front, warm front moving north over night and then a cold front Sunday afternoon as the system moves east. The forecast will hold onto rain chances over the weekend with possible drying conditions going into Monday. Moisture return should not be enough for heavy rainfall nor severe weather since instability will be lacking. Forced ascent from upper level dynamics may support some stronger updrafts Saturday night into Sunday ahead of the cold front but not enough to warrant putting thunderstorms in the forecast. Lastly to squash any rumor of winter weather in the next 7-8 days, temperatures stay above freezing so no worries. Overpeck

So, what he is saying is the Arctic can still unleash on us after 10 days?

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GEFS suggests well below normal temperatures from around the 8th of February continuing through Valentine's Day. Precipitation wise, the GEFS is suggesting a wet pattern likely associated with that highly amplified MJO and Kelvin Wave during the coldest period mid month.

[tireman4]

More eye candy...again..for entertainment purposes at this time....

[harp]

More eye candy...again..for entertainment purposes at this time....

Yes, because the operational GFS is all over the place each run.