JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[christinac2016]

The cold up in Siberia is the real deal and it needs to be monitored. It will spill over into Canada over time. A discharge down the plains around the end of January/beginning of February has led to some of our historical record-breaking blue northers. I actually think the coldest weather of the season is yet to come. Don't let the warm weather over the next week or so fool you.

At least I can enjoy the slight warm up. Gives me a little more time to prepare better.

[ticka1]

Looking ahead we should warm up the next week or so, but not to be the bearer of bad news...or goods news depending on your perspective the models are indicating some very cold air currently over Siberia were the actual temperatures are in the -70 to almost -90F looks to build across Canada and I source Region late January. February typically is our climatologically favored month for Wintry Precipitation. I mentioned yesterday on NWSchat that I didn't believe we would tie the Winter of 1973 with 3 recorded snow events in one season in SE Texas again in my lifetime and it's only mid January! Well here we are. Guess the only good thing is those pesky mosquitos aren't a problem at this time...

any chance it could miss se texas? Missed alot of work with this cold and cant afford to miss anymore.

[TexasMetBlake]

Well I never understood the whole "warmer in La Nina, cooler in El Nino" thing. La Nina's tend to be drier which means more sunshine which means higher temps. El Nino is a wetter pattern, more clouds, less insolation, cooler temps. I get it. However it's been my experience that La Nina can produce some really dramatic cold snaps here in Houston.

Btw, the coldest temp in southeast Texas this morning was 10° in Crockett. An amazing cold snap. Two record lows back-to-back at Hobby, first snow on record at Hobby for Jan 16th and first snowfall at Galveston on record for the same day.

Going to be another blistering cold night tonight, albeit not as extreme as this morning.

[srainhoutx]

For those wondering, that 19F at IAH is makes 22 years since a last "teen" reading occurred on January 8, 1996.

[Rip76]

This was supposed to be a "warmer/dryer," winter eh....

I'll take the blame for that. I told everyone on the Storm2K forum last winter that since I had the winter of my dreams (warm and dry) that this winter would be very cold and icy across Texas to compensate them for a lack of winter in 2016-2017. I'll turn the thermostat back up come spring.

Can you keep the summers to about 90 tops...please.

[srainhoutx]

From the West Gulf River Forecast Center via Twitter

[mckinne63]

Even this Wisconsin transplant was shivering! I don't recall feeling this cold since moving to Texas back in 1986. But I think the first blast of cold here in Houston I experienced was 1988 or 1989, my blood had not thinned out as much.

Very nice to see the sunshine! My car is thawing out, though still have crunchy grass and the benches by our fish pond our still frozen over. Thankfully the fishies know to stay at the bottom when it gets cold.

Thank you again to the Pro Mets and everyone posting here. It is because of this forum that I made smart decisions as far as travel.

[BlueJay]

We have "warmed" up to 29F. The icicles on the roof are dripping down to the back patio. I am hopeful that the sun will help evaporate most of the moisture so that there will be fewer pop-up ice skating rinks all over. Stay safe everyone. I am counting the days until spring.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday midday Update from Jeff:

Coldest low temperatures in over a two decades recorded across the region this morning

Travel conditions are slowly improving, but many overpasses and bridges continue to have issues.

While some freeways are showing improvements, others have been slow with ice removal this morning and many of the elevated flyover ramps continue to be completely ice covered and closed. Still have ice an actual surface streets that are shaded from the radiation of the sun.

While conditions are expected to be significantly improved on Thursday morning, cannot rule out patches of ice where melt water does not evaporate today and refreezes tonight.

Temperatures will warm above freezing across the region over the next 1-1.5 hours and then into the upper 30’s this afternoon which should help to accelerate the ice melt along with strong midday solar radiation.

Expect most of the ice to melt this afternoon, but some patches may remain especially in areas that are shaded and any residual water will refreeze rapidly this evening as temperatures fall quickly into the mid 20’s.

As for lows tonight, visible images show cloud cover already increasing from the SW ahead of a weak disturbance that will cross the region on Thursday. Expect lows tonight to fall into the mid 20’s over much of the region, but where clouds increase the latest NE of a line from Huntsville to Liberty lows will likely fall into the 12-16 degree range…so another hard freeze warning will likely be required for portions of the area again for tonight.

Given incredibly cold conditions this morning suspect many tropical plants have not survived this event and main focus for tonight should be potential for water pipes to freeze along with pets and livestock. Persons should limit outdoor exposure to small amounts of time.

Much more significant warm up will occur on Thursday with highs creeping into the low to mid 40’s under more cloud cover.

Wednesday Morning Lows:

Crockett: 10
College Station: 15
BUSH IAH: 19 (coldest reading since 1996)
Hobby: 19 (New record low)
Galveston: 25
Conroe: 14
Brenham: 16
Stafford: 19
Rosenberg: 20
Aldine: 15
Montgomery: 14
Freeport: 24
Livingston: 15
Bellville: 15
Huntsville: 13
Tomball: 15
Wharton: 19
Sugar Land: 20
Bay City: 21
Palacios: 22
Caldwell: 11
Sargent: 21
Matagorda: 21
Damon: 19
Weimar: 18
Columbus: 16
Eagle Lake: 17
Giddings: 15
Cleveland: 17
Victoria: 22

Other:
Melvin (W of Brady): 1
Brownwood: 2
Brady: 5
Menard: 3
Mason: 5
Llano: 9
Dripping Springs: 12
Austin: 15
San Marcos: 18
Georgetown: 13
Smithville: 16
Corpus Christi: 28

[DoctorMu]

For those wondering, that 19F at IAH is makes 22 years since a last "teen" reading occurred on January 8, 1996.

15°F in College Station. Coldest temp. since the 1980s I believe.

[TexasMetBlake]

College Station officially came in at 15° but according to the NWS, 1 mile south of College Station, the temperature dropped to 11°.

[srainhoutx]

One more night of Hard Freeze coming...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
137 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

...HARD FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...

.ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM AND
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 21 DEGREE RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE BACK TO AROUND FREEZING BY 9 AM THURSDAY.

Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Liberty-Madison-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Including the cities of Anahuac, Brenham, Brookshire, Bryan,
Caldwell, Cleveland, Coldspring, College Station, Conroe,
Corrigan, Crockett, Dayton, Groveton, Hempstead, Houston, Humble,
Huntsville, Katy, Lake Somerville, Liberty, Livingston,
Madisonville, Mont Belvieu, Navasota, Onalaska, Pasadena,
Prairie View, Shepherd, The Woodlands, Tomball, Trinity, Willis,
and Winnie
137 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Hard Freeze Warning, which is in effect from 9 PM this evening to
9 AM CST Thursday.

* EVENT...Hard freeze with temperatures 15 to 22.

* TIMING...below freezing 6 to 8 pm and bottoming out before
sunrise. Rising back above freezing around 9 am.

* IMPACT...Hypothermia for people and pets. Further damage to
vegetation. Possible damage to unprotected pipes.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hard Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are
imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and
other sensitive vegetation.

[unome]

From the West Gulf River Forecast Center via Twitter

01172018 West Gulf River Foercast Center DTwmGfqUQAAH_PM.jpg

I think the image on the left side of their Twitter post uses Day Cloud Phase RGB, I save an image off of it from about 16:00 UTC yesterday & have it as my wallpaper - it's gorgeous ! Wish I knew how to find an archive of them

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/b ... _drop=show

[srainhoutx]

[Cromagnum]

In other news, Houston motorists are very impatient and very stupid.

http://abc13.com/2957219/?sf179477008=1

[mckinne63]

In other news, Houston motorists are very impatient and very stupid.

http://abc13.com/2957219/?sf179477008=1

I saw that on the News and transstar this morning. My first thought was "glad I follow this forum so am not out there." I know some HAVE to be on the roads, but I do wonder how many of those cars HAD to be on the road. The semis... well just don't know but they probably have a deadline. And I saw on the news most of the semis were waiting patiently for the road to reopen.

[srainhoutx]

I noticed some clouds approaching from our SW while out running errands. That may limit some of the lowest forecast low temperatures for some areas. Looking at the afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Outlooks and analogs, it appears our next best first shot of some colder air arrives around the 27th or so. The analogs suggest a deep Western trough that extends into the Plains while the East Coast thaws out. I have a feeling that shortly after February begins we will be back to a cold and possibly wintry pattern.

[SKIDOG46]

I remember late last week there was a model that predicted precipitation on Thursday morning. The clouds down south coming our way tonight is that what the model picked up on?

[srainhoutx]

I remember late last week there was a model that predicted precipitation on Thursday morning. The clouds down south coming our way tonight is that what the model picked up on?

The dynamics were much stronger in the Upper Levels last week when some of the guidance suggested a wintry mix tonight and tomorrow morning. The disturbance is weaker and we are so dry at the mid/lower levels that anything that might fall should evaporate except down in the Rio Grande Valley where there is a chance of light freezing drizzle.

[TexasBreeze]

Could be a touch cooler or about the same in the morning than this morning was considering the quick temp drop and the cloud bank staying away so far. 25 Hooks arpt already. Only mitigating factor is the dew point is 19 and rising.