JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[DoctorMu]

The Latest HRRR model is kinda aggressive...

This could get interesting.

Well done so far - hope you all see the mother lode this evening.

[snowman65]

What does that look like over towards the Tx/La border?

[srainhoutx]

RAP also shows some activity this evening, but we will need to see some radar returns develop over the next several hours if the HRRR is somewhat correct. Light snow flurries continue to fall across portions of Northern Burnett and Williamson Counties in Central Texas. I do see some light echos developing N of Bryan/College Station just recently. Brrr is it cold out there! Temperatures are expected to plummet tonight as that upper trough exits the Region ushering in re enforcing shot of very cold air.

[Katdaddy]

Agree with Srain and will be looking for any slight radar returns increasing this evening across Central and S Central TX.

[cperk]

The NWS had a 20% chance of sleet/snow in their forecast for Richmond,one hour later they removed it.

[davidiowx]

The NWS had a 20% chance of sleet/snow in their forecast for ,one hour later they removed it.

I saw that as well. I assume they are waiting to see if anything does develop before mentioning the possibility of winter precip later this evening.

[DoctorMu]

The NWS had a 20% chance of sleet/snow in their forecast for ,one hour later they removed it.

I saw that as well. I assume they are waiting to see if anything does develop before mentioning the possibility of winter precip later this evening.

If it were rain would NWS have left it in - at 20%? Possibly.

Because it's better to have folks surprised by wintry precip while driving on a slick, raised street at night in SE Texas. [sarcasm]

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z HRRR is very aggressive compared to earlier today regarding a 6 hour window of wintry mischief. Not sure it's correct, but stranger things have happened I suppose.

[DoctorMu]

Thermometer IMBY has topped off at 32°F. It feels colder than yesterday with a steady NE breeze. Don't think we're getting warmer than that.

[srainhoutx]

Also the Texas Tech WRF as well as the Euro are suggesting moisture falling this evening. Ceilings have lowered across NW Harris County to below 10,000 ft and still slowing lowering. Typically I can see inbound and outbound flights from IAH and now I can just hear the aircraft.

[sau27]

Looking at the Goes 16 IR there is a subtle wave extending just north of Matagorda into central Texas that is sliding to the NE. Wondering if this is going to help add some lift later this afternoon/evening. I dont know how to post the image here but here is the link (hopefully it works). http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 7-48-1-100

[Heat Miser]

That sky is begging to shed some moisture. Lovely, seeing I have to drive over the Galveston Causeway in about two hours and return from work at 12 AM. FYI, The Pelican Island bridge has already reported ice on that bridge. Another bridge I have to drive across to and fro.
Sau, that sky just needs a tiny trigger and that may be all that's needed.

[mcheer23]

19z HRRR continues the trend

[sau27]

The 19z HRRR is keeping up the precip trend for 6pm-midnight for the area. Also of note is that the 18z NAM 3km is getting "on board" with some precip during that same time frame. I put on board in quotes since the NAM is much less agressive than the HRRR, however it is still a change from the 12z which was showing nothing. Looks like we could have another short-fuse event again tonight, however if it happens I don't think coverage will be as widespread as we saw a few weeks ago

[srainhoutx]

The timing of the onset of the modeled precipitation coincides with a jet streak just ahead of the 500mb upper trough crossing Central and SE Texas. If anything is going to reach the ground, between 7PM to just after 2AM looks to be the timeframe...if it happens at all.

[stormlover]

srain what is ur gut telling you, I k now this is tough to forecast but what does it look like?

[DoctorMu]

Also the Texas Tech WRF as well as the Euro are suggesting moisture falling this evening. Ceilings have lowered across NW Harris County to below 10,000 ft and still slowing lowering. Typically I can see inbound and outbound flights from IAH and now I can just hear the aircraft.

FWIW, I can see the thicker, lower stratus clouds to the south of CLL. It's starting to LOOK like potential for snow (or at least Virga).

(disclosure: we lived just west of Chicago when I was a kid before moving to NC at 9 years of age)

[harp]

Also the Texas Tech WRF as well as the Euro are suggesting moisture falling this evening. Ceilings have lowered across NW Harris County to below 10,000 ft and still slowing lowering. Typically I can see inbound and outbound flights from IAH and now I can just hear the aircraft.

FWIW, I can see the thicker, lower stratus clouds to the south of CLL. It's starting to LOOK like snow (or at least Virga).

(disclosure: we lived just west of Chicago when I was a kid before moving to NC at 9 years of age)

Well, the vort max continues to move down.

[christinac2016]

So how does it look for Montgomery County? Any precip?

[srainhoutx]

srain what is ur gut telling you, I k now this is tough to forecast but what does it look like?

I typically do not attempt to forecast winter weather events, just longer range patterns and tropical systems. That said I've spent nearly all 60 years of my life right here in Harris County and I've been burned by trusting models as all professional forecasters have. We have the cold air in place. We just need a trigger and the dry air to saturate a bit. It's certainly snowing a few thousand feet up. I can see virga streaks falling right now around 5,000 ft.