JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[Belmer]

Each new HRRR model run seems to have a little less freezing rain accumulation coverage along I-10 from San Antonio to Houston and slightly more bullish on snowfall accumulation. Looking at 02Z from latest 05Z. Those mesoscale bandings that are being hinted at, clearly look more on the sleet/snow side than freezing rain. Fingers crossed!

[Andrew]

Reports of light snow at KCLL

[DoctorMu]

Reports of light snow at KCLL

It's a mix of rain, sleet, snow IMBY. 35°F and falling.

[Andrew]

ECMWF IS rather bullish with both snow and ice. Shows similar to the tx tech wrf with banding

[DoctorMu]

Snow with some rain mixed in. Really blustery. N 21 G 35

[Belmer]

Snow with some rain mixed in. Really blustery. N 21 G 35

Saw on some radars that blue was starting to appear right in College Station. Was wondering if that was actually reaching the ground as snow. Thanks for the report!

[Andrew]

Looks like temperatures are running a couple degrees colder. Already seeing snow reports out of conroe and college station over the last several hours. I suspect we will begin seeing similar reports around Houston during sunrise.

[Heat Miser]

Precip building to the west and moving in an east northeast direction.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. 39F and falling quickly across NW Harris County with winds gusting to 25 MPH and light rain. A quick inspection of the various features indicate that shortwave over Mexico I mentioned yesterday has progressed E toward the Ranchlands of S Central Texas and is approaching the San Antonio/Pleasanton area generally moving E to NE behind the Arctic Boundary near the Coast. Lift is increasing across S Central Texas associated with that feature as well as frotogenesis or lift generating light precipitation of a wintry mix across Austin to College Station. The latest HRRR as well as the typically drier ECMWF suggest a quarter inch of precipitation is possible with some isolated higher amounts nearing .40 possible. Most of that heavier precipitation is freezing rain/sleet with some snow. Conditions should begin to deteriorate after sunrise and continue to deteriorate throughout the morning into the afternoon as temperatures fall into the mid to upper 20's across most of SE Texas except right along the Coast where it may take until the afternoon to transition to a wintry mix.

[srainhoutx]

Early Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Winter Storm developing over the region.

No chances to warnings or advisories in place.

Travel conditions will worsen throughout the day. Avoid travel if possible and use extreme caution on any bridge or overpass

Discussion:
Cold front is offshore with surface freezing line rapidly moving across the area. At 400am the freezing lien extends from near Hempstead to Conroe and moving southward and expect this line to reach the US 59 corridor by mid morning and the coast by late morning. Already have seen freezing rain from Brenham to Huntsville and College Station has been switching and mixing sleet and freezing rain the last few hours. Ice accumulations are in progress N of HWY 105 and bridges and overpasses will start to develop ice over the next few hours. Freezing rain/sleet mixt will move southward into the US 59 corridor by mid morning and the coast by late morning. Light snow may changover N of HWY 105 by late morning as the surface arctic domes deepens.

Other item of interest this morning is the HRRR and TX TECH models showing some mesoscale banding of the precip especially S of HWY 105 today. This appears to be due to waves of forcing aloft in the frontal zone ahead of the 850mb front. This could locally enhance precipitation rates and accumulation totals. For now will not change the ice accumulation amounts and watch trends closely today for any areas of localized enhancements.

Accumulations:
Still think up to .10 of an inch in the warning area and .05 to .10 of an inch of ice in the advisory area. Sleet/snow accumulations could be .5 to 1.5 inches from Brenham to Livingston northward.

Decision Support:

NW of LaGrange to Conroe: Onset freezing rain 300-400am Tuesday. Ice accumulation up to .10 of an inch, with sleet and snow accumulation of 1-2 inches. Hazardous travel all day

N of HWY 105: Onset freezing rain 400-600am Tuesday. Ice accumulation up to 10 of an inch. Sleet accumulation likely up to .50 of an inch. Hazardous travel early Tuesday morning

N of US 59 including metro Houston: Onset freezing rain 700-900am. Ice Accumulation up to .10 of an inch. Hazardous travel starting mid-morning

Coastal areas: Onset of freezing rain 1000am-noon. Ice accumulation up to .05 of an inch. Hazardous travel starting around noon

Precipitation should gradually end from N to S Tuesday evening, but very cold temperature will maintain icy conditions through mid-morning on Wednesday.

Key Messages:

· Winter Storm event underway over SE TX

· Accumulations of ice/sleet/snow will worsen travel conditions throughout the day

· Bridges and overpasses are likely to experience icy conditions today into tonight

· Wind chills today in the 10’s
Hard freeze tonight with lows in the upper 10’s N and low to mid 20’s central/southern areas

[srainhoutx]

Down to 34F in NW Harris County and still falling at a rate of of 4 to 5 degrees per hour. Radar and observations indicate a sizeable area of precipitation to developing and expanding from San Antonio to just N of Corpus Christi into Victoria heading our way.

[wxman57]

35 in SW Houston (Westbury). I have toiletries and a change of clothes plus my ski jacket in my car. Don't know if I'll be able to make it home from work near Hobby airport around 4pm. I'm thinking surface streets will be OK. I could take W. Belfort from I-45 north of Hobby all the way west to my house. Going to be a busy day at the office.

If you don't have to be on the roads then stay home today.

[Andrew]

Concerned about that banding showing up over San Antonio. HRRR is starting to pick up on it and could present some problems for the region around 17-20z.

[Heat Miser]

Be careful wxman. I go off duty at 0800 today and it's my Friday. I'll be home by the time things start to deteriorate significantly. Appears no issues will arise on the Pelican Island bridge or the Causeway until late morning. I'm sure the students here at A&M are heartbroken they don't have to attend today.

[srainhoutx]

Via Twitter...

Donna
Donna
@donna_womack
The fun in Conroe this morning!

[ticka1]

stay safe wxman. thanks for the info.

[unome]

zoom in & animate http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/cu ... radar.html

really wish the kid had not gone into work

[srainhoutx]

32F now in NW Harris County. Concern growing as reports are coming in from Waller/Conroe/Huntsville and Cleveland of freezing rain/sleet and some occasional light snow mix falling. Please heed the advise to stay home today if possible. If the model trends we see developing continues, icing on our freeways/bridges/flyovers may well increase Region Wide as the day progresses.

[unome]

32F now in NW Harris County. Concern growing as reports are coming in from Waller/Conroe/Huntsville and Cleveland of freezing rain/sleet and some occasional light snow mix falling. Please heed the advise to stay home today if possible. If the model trends we see developing continues, icing on our freeways/bridges/flyovers may well increase Region Wide as the day progresses.

freezing rain & getting really gusty in Cypress now

[srainhoutx]

Freezing rain reported in Katy