JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[harp]

Euro moved a bit towards the GFS

You sure? I'm reading that it moved a little further away from the GFS solution.

[don]

The Euro is a little closer to the GFS this run, it shows "close call" event with rains and temps in the mid to lower 30s across the northern half of southeast Texas on Tuesday FWIW.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro moved a bit towards the GFS

You sure? I'm reading that it moved a little further away from the GFS solution.

Yes, I’m sure. It trended colder and it is a little more amped than the progressive 0z run.

And yes to sambucol... GFS is much colder

[DoctorMu]

Holy moly!!!! The 12Z GFS. It just won't back down!

Canadian caved to the GFS too... curious what the 12z Euro shows. Our ULL near Hawaii will tell the story.

NAM is siding with the GFS as well as we look upstream.


Canadian has Pensacola at 8 degrees and Miami in the low 40s.

It's the GFS, Canadian, NAM, Ensemble vs. Euro.

GFS portrays a major column of cold near College Station. We had a freak night in the teens last winter, and that was it for cold. 4 out of 5 models looks more sustained and not shallow.

[DoctorMu]

Japanese model has no shallow layer cold descending as well. Below zero Jan 1-2 from the OK - TX state line to NW Mississippi. We'll see.

[snowman65]

I'de give just about anything to understand those sounding charts....lol

[TexasMetBlake]

Here's a crash course in understanding a Skew T:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/thermo/skewt/

[TexasMetBlake]

Dallas AFD:

Beyond Sunday, guidance continues to diverge as we start the year
2018. Just for informational purposes, the GFS model advertises
high temperatures across North and Central TX in the teens and
twenties. This WOULD certainly be an impressive cold outbreak,
but at this time, there isn`t much support for this solution. I`ll
lean towards a warmer solution given that the operational GFS
appears to be an outlier amongst the guidance. That in mind,
it`ll still be cold as Saturday`s Arctic front will usher in much
colder conditions. For now, I`ll advertise high temperatures in
the 30s and 40s areawide with overnight lows in the teens and
twenties.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday night briefing from Jeff:

A series of cold fronts will progress across SE TX for the next several days keeping a cool air mass in place.

Coastal trough has developed along the middle TX coast this morning and is starting to lift ENE/NE along the coast with light rain and drizzle across portions of the area. Temperatures range from the 40’s to 50’s across the area and will likely not see much of a change in the temperatures today with clouds and passing light rain. A cold front will move across the area tonight and early Wednesday ushering in a colder and drier air mass. Expect the deepening drier air to slowing end the overrunning situation in place and reduce the coverage of drizzle and light rain. Temperatures will likely remain in the 40’s on Wednesday under cold air advection and cloud cover.

Best days will likely be Thursday and Friday as clouds decrease allowing better surface warming of temperatures into the mid 50’s. Clouds come back late Friday and into Saturday-Sunday as another potentially strong cold front approaches the region. Will likely need to have some low rain chances Saturday and NYE over the area and these may need to be raised depending on how exactly the pattern develops. Extended range models continue to advertise arctic air mass dump into the US around New Year’s, but are struggling with how much of this air mass heads straight southward into TX versus SE toward the SE US and actually how cold the air may be. For now will likely see some sort of frontal passage on NYE or NYD, but how cold the post frontal air mass may be is in question.

[DoctorMu]

00Z GFS warmed up a degree or two, but added a chance of winter weather on New Year's Day. While the Canadian went on a full New Year's bender for snow and polar temps.





Holy Moly if Canadian actually turns out to be in the ballpark. 6 Days with temps hovering freezing or pretty far below in College Station.

JMA still on the cold bandwagon. Euro still more moderate. Confidence still... not high.

[srainhoutx]

Starting to see some changes in the overnight guidance, but caution is advised as there are some differences that could have significant implications on our sensible weather forecast for New Years Eve into New Year's Day.

The ECMWF has flipped to a colder pattern and generates some potential of wintry precipitation as well as the Canadian, while the GFS is a bit drier. There are some hints of lift in the GFS solution leading to a low confidence forecast as 2017 ends and 2018 begins. I see the National Weather Service Offices across Central and SE Texas are mentioning the possibility of light freezing rain/sleet with the possibility of a snow grain or two Sunday night and Monday night. We'll need to monitor trends over the next several days as we head toward the end of the year.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

In the words of Marvin Gaye.... LETS GET IT ON!

[wxman57]

GFS and Euro are in much better agreement for the temps across TX early next week. This is not looking like a snow event, but there could be some sleet mixed in with the rain as precip ends up in the DFW area. I wouldn't absolutely rule out any sleet pellets here in Houston, but I wouldn't forecast it based on overnight model runs. There may be a considerable warm layer aloft here on New Year's. Certainly, I would not expect any snow in the Houston area, so don't get your hopes up for another snow miracle with this front.

As for temps, Euro is now saying around 24F, with the GFS around 26F for Houston. Cold, but nothing really out of the ordinary and certainly not historic or anywhere close to record-breaking. Remember, there is very little of a snow pack to our north, so any Arctic air coming south will modify more than normal for this time of year.

Bottom line for me is that I won't be participating in the Houston Bike Club's New Year's Day bike ride this year. Even though I love cold weather this winter, my bike says it doesn't like to be ridden in sub-freezing temps with a strong north wind.

[BlueJay]

Listen to the bike, wxman57!

[snowman65]

I'm about to throw in the towel on models....I'll just open the front door. If it's cold I'll put on a coat...if not, I won't....lol

[mcheer23]

EURO brings light snow into Houston, tuesday morning.

[DoctorMu]

Euro and GFS have moved towards each other in temperature; Euro might be a little colder. Maybe snowier

Canadian has doubled down on snow and cold. lol

FWIW on the powdery wishcasting end, GFS was too warm and dry for the Dec 7 event.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF certainly trending colder and has a shortwave diving S into Texas late New Year's Day. Near Hard Freeze. criteria for the areas along and North of I-10 with near or at freezing temperatures to the Coast, if this solution holds.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro not only caved to the GFS, it dropped it like its hot and went south of the GFS in temp output

[Heat Miser]

When I come to the KHOU forums I read one persons posts with interest and respect. WXman, this guy is usually the most reliable and experienced meteorologist visiting this forum. He's not subject to hyperbole and he certainly doesn't bloviate.
You want our sensible weather, read his thoughts.