Katdaddy wrote:Another cold morning across SE TX with temps in the 20s across most areas with some teens N of Houston metro and low 30s along the immediate coast. The warming trend begins today and we will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with showers and a few thunderstorms for the weekend.
TxDot shows only 4 areas of ice this morning N of downtown Houston. One area at 610 N and US-69 and 3 areas along the Beltway 8 N at US-69 and near I-45.
I drove to the Cypress Park and Ride this morning- the east side of the parking garage was leaking water so the side street (Skinner Rd.) was a skating rink.
The buses still cannot use the HOV lanes and my commute downtown was about 20 mins more than normal.
Downtown streets (most receive little to no direct sunlight) are salted and sanded, but still heavily iced over and horrible for pedestrians.
Went from 23F at 1:00 to 28F at 7:00 AM with the blanket of clouds moving in earlier than expected in NW Harris County. Could see temperatures struggle to reach 40F today for some areas. Enjoy the warmth coming because it may be a distant memory come early February.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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vci_guy2003 wrote:What do the models tell us for early Feb?
Way too soon to know the finer details in a highly volatile pattern for the Global Models to resolve over the next 10+ Days. The Day 11 CPC GEFS Super Ensemble Blend suggests a huge blocking pattern across the Artic into the N Pacific with a trough in the West into the Plains and warm along the East Coast. The upcoming pattern looks very progressive with a couple of storm systems bringing quick shots of cold air around the 27th of January and just beyond. I believe that much of that very cold air currently over Siberia will begin to cross the Arctic Circle and build across Alaska and Canada in the next 10 days or so. We will look at things a bit closer next week and see what our sensible weather may bring toward the end of January and the first half of February.
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srainhoutx wrote:Went from 23F at 1:00 to 28F at 7:00 AM with the blanket of clouds moving in earlier than expected in NW Harris County. Could see temperatures struggle to reach 40F today for some areas. Enjoy the warmth coming because it may be a distant memory come early February.
Yep, I heard that too. Just like Dan Meador used to say, once that door is opened, it is just the prairie lands between Canada and us..LOL
srainhoutx wrote:Went from 23F at 1:00 to 28F at 7:00 AM with the blanket of clouds moving in earlier than expected in NW Harris County. Could see temperatures struggle to reach 40F today for some areas. Enjoy the warmth coming because it may be a distant memory come early February.
Yep, I heard that too. Just like Dan Meador used to say, once that door is opened, it is just the prairie lands between Canada and us..LOL
WWxHopeful wrote:anyone else see some precip across the near Eagle Pass starting to form?
Haven't received any word whether precipitation is actually making it to the ground, but my hunch is that it is not. While the upper levels are more moist, the middle and lower levels look too dry for anything to make it all the way to the surface.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1135 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018
.MORNING UPDATE...(SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION)
Some light echoes persist late this morning across the Rio Grande plains into the southern Edwards Plateau. Reports from earlier indicated a mixture of light rain and sleet near Del Rio. As temperatures continue to slowly warm this afternoon, suspect we will see only light sprinkles. While the mid- level cyclonic circulation centered over northern Coahuila will provide some lift, the atmosphere is very dry and we expect only sprinkles to reach the ground. Otherwise, we have adjusted the winds, dew points and cloud cover to account for recent observational trends.
I saw where there's rain in the forecast I think Saturday and Sunday. I'm hoping it ends or holds up Sunday morning for walk on the waterway. Saturday morning too.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018
.AVIATION...
VFR 5-9k ft BKN-OVC ceilings through the early Friday morning
hours...lowering into MVFR around or just after sunrise. Warm air
advection pattern will be kicking in from tonight through the next
cold frontal passage on Sunday night/Monday morning. A developing
western Gulf low and the existence of a coastal warm front moving
inland tomorrow will thicken up and lower Friday overcast and
increase southern hub showers. VCSH from metro southward Friday
morning...more widespread light precipitation transitioning
further north from tomorrow afternoon through Sunday. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Cloud cover spreading northeast across the area this morning.
Appears we will see mostly cloudy skies areawide by mid-day.
Slightly cooler max temps when compared to model guidance appears
to be the way to go this aft. Only minor adjustments are being
made to the aft temp forecast. We should see lower 40s across most
areas by mid afternoon. The far northern areas could remain in
the upper 30s depending on the degree of cloud cover. 33
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/
DISCUSSION...
The Hard Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9 AM this morning
for counties mainly along and north of Interstate 10 where 3 AM
temperatures are in the mid teens to lower 20s. To the south of
these spots, temperatures are generally ranging from the mid to
upper 20s inland to the low to mid 30s at the coast. Cloud cover
that has been making slow progress to the northeast across our
area is partly associated with the slow moving far west Texas area
mid/upper level low. These clouds will likely keep high temperatures
in the low to mid 40s across a majority of the area today, and will
probably keep tonight`s/Friday morning`s low temperatures mostly
in the 30s. Expect to see increasing rain chances mainly Friday
and Friday night as the low moves eastward across the state. Will
adjust these rain chances (and gain a little more confidence) over
the next day or two as models hopefully come into better agreement
with the location/strength/movement of the low. We are more confident
with the temperature forecast that becomes significantly warmer
(highs in the 50s Friday, in the 60s/70s Saturday and mostly in
the 70s on Sunday) as south to southeast winds return to the area
and strengthen. Look for increasing shower and possible thunderstorm
chances Sunday and Sunday night associated with the approach and
passage of a Pacific cold front. Will continue to keep the first
half of next week dry with temperatures mainly near normal. 42
MARINE...
As surface high pressure moves away, a coastal trof will develop
along the Tx coast. Winds will veer to the NE & E today and
eventually from the E to SE Friday. The pressure gradient will
tighten so wind speeds will increase and seas will build offshore.
May need small craft advisories in the 20-60nm group as early as
Friday.
The cold water temps closer to the coast will limit onshore wind
speeds, but with a warmer airmass moving overhead we do expect to
see some sea fog development by Friday evening in between periods of
precipitation going into Saturday. The sea fog will remain a threat
until the next front (and probably line of showers/tstms) Sunday
night. Moderate offshore winds in its wake may require caution/advsy
flags into Monday. 47
Watching for a chance of sleet or freezing drizzle/rain for a brief window north of I-10 after midnight, should precip get here early. Temps near or just above freezing with dew points in the teens and 20s. Wetbulbing will result in temps falling should precip present itself. NWS says low chance of anything. Canadian model and my dead reckoning (is that a model?) says it's possible. At least worth a mention since most of the roads here are not treated. Even a brief freezing drizzle could cause some major, major issues. This would likely only happen in pockets far N and NW of Houston..... at this point. More likely than anything else, we won't see anything due to lack of precip... however isentropic lifting plain of 290K look interesting as the ridge moves away.
One thing I would like to add, if ( big IF) we do have a La Nina Summer, all this precipitation is a good thing to have. More moisture now, less for the really intensive heat if a High Pressure wants to park over us. The pro mets can chime in on this....
Any indications this will happen again any time soon? I know its early to tell, but just wondering if any models were sniffing anything out. Hope not. Haven't been able to get maybe 8 hrs in this week. We need a break.
