djmike wrote:Still snowing strong in Beaumont. Large flakes! Roofs, cars and anything elevated are covered in white. Accumulating on grass and its beautiful! Looks to be another white beautiful morning coming! Just amazed at how much we're getting and how large the flakes are. I dont think anyone expected this. Not even our local mets! A flurry here and there but this this whiteout? No. Just awesome and beautiful!
We got nothing here in Orange. Absolutely nothing...crazy...
Currently 24F in my backyard and thankfully the slow warming process begins today. Each day the rest of the week will be warmer than the day before. By the weekend our January Thaw should be well underway with temperatures nearing 70F.
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Srain I'm ready to start looking at the next actic intrusion you alluded to early for the mid Jan time frame. I had noticed there could could wet pattern around that time also.
I didn't see any snow flurries. I think I'll be glad to see 50s and 60s this weekend. Give my heater a break.
But didn't one of the ProMets say this isn't the end of the cold weather? Can someone speculate / guess on how the gap will be before another one is sniffed out? I suppose my former boss was right when he said when there is a substantial hurricane (okay catastrophic) then we have a wild winter.
christinac2016 wrote:I didn't see any snow flurries. I think I'll be glad to see 50s and 60s this weekend. Give my heater a break.
But didn't one of the ProMets say this isn't the end of the cold weather? Can someone speculate / guess on how the gap will be before another one is sniffed out? I suppose my former boss was right when he said when there is a substantial hurricane (okay catastrophic) then we have a wild winter.
Srain mentioned mid January for the next possible arctic intrusion....so you may have a 10 day break to rest your heater..lol
Regarding the longer range, the morning Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Super Ensemble blend analogs suggest the upper air pattern may be conducive for delivering our next best shot of cold air around the 14th, +/- a day or two. That is still a ways out to accurately forecast what our sensible weather may bring and I see some of the Longer Range Meteorologist posting on social media of an extended January thaw. So far those ensembles have done a fairly good job predicting the colder pattern since late last November leading up to the December 7-8 snow event as well as the current Arctic Outbreak that looks to bring a brutal Nor'easter along the I-95 Corridor today through Friday.
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snowman65 wrote:Srain I'm ready to start looking at the next actic intrusion you alluded to early for the mid Jan time frame. I had noticed there could could wet pattern around that time also.
snowman65 wrote:Srain I'm ready to start looking at the next actic intrusion you alluded to early for the mid Jan time frame. I had noticed there could could wet pattern around that time also.
It's a lock, then.
DoctorMu, I don't think you ever sleep. You're as liable to post at 1AM as 1PM. Always do enjoy your comments, insight and knowledge.
srainhoutx wrote:Regarding the longer range, the morning Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Super Ensemble blend analogs suggest the upper air pattern may be conducive for delivering our next best shot of cold air around the 14th, +/- a day or two. That is still a ways out to accurately forecast what our sensible weather may bring and I see some of the Longer Range Meteorologist posting on social media of an extended January thaw. So far those ensembles have done a fairly good job predicting the colder pattern since late last November leading up to the December 7-8 snow event as well as the current Arctic Outbreak that looks to bring a brutal Nor'easter along the I-95 Corridor today through Friday.
Some of these dates had freezes come like in January 1959, January 1979, December 1984, and January 1994.
snowman65 wrote:Unless there is something going on that I can't see it looks like a lengthy January thaw on the way....hmmm
Looking at the 00Z GEFS temperature wise, highs in the 40's and lows in the 30's over about a 4 to 5 day period starting around January 12th or so certainly isn't a "thaw" to me. The term January thaw can be used rather loosely at times and some folks assume a heat wave is coming. All I see in the ensemble scheme are temperatures at or slightly above climatology. I certainly do not see any cold like we have been experiencing and it is typical to see a relaxation in patterns. Now regarding any wintry weather potential, those hopes and chances may need to be put on the back burner until late January into February which is our climatologically favored period across our Region for winter precipitation chances.
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We'll need to watch our sensible weather pattern mid next week. The GFS has a Winter Storm crossing the Central Plains next week and the 12Z ECMWF suggests a sneaky upper low with its origin in the NE Pacific crashing onshore in California bringing low elevation rainfall and hefty higher elevation snowfall. Could be a significant Southern Rockies Winter Storm for those traveling to New Mexico/Colorado for the MLK Day Holiday.
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