December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

[srainhoutx]

The Updated NOAA Snow and Ice Chart show just how widespread and impressive our December 7th- 8th Southern Winter Storm truly was.

[harp]

Yesterday, srain mentioned something about long term ensembles indicating another cold blast coming in the 12 day range, maybe? Any updates on that? Thanks very much.

[Heat Miser]

The beginning, during, and the final result.
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[Heat Miser]

It was reported from 4"-6" here in Orange. I had at least 3"-4" deep at my house...and how are people adding pictures? How do you get the file size so small that it accepts it? I have great pictures I could share!

I have found this site to be the best for this forum. Yes, you may wait a few seconds for the site to ensure you're not spam, but the second option once you upload is already wrapped in the image code and I've had no problems posting to this forum using it as evidenced above.

Code: Select all

http://tinypic.com/?t=postupload

[snowman65]

We had 4" in Orange...

[BlueJay]

That was the best snow day ever! Thanks for the fine reporting and all of the wonderful pictures that have been shared.
Enjoy this lovely day everyone!

[srainhoutx]

Yesterday, srain mentioned something about long term ensembles indicating another cold blast coming in the 12 day range, maybe? Any updates on that? Thanks very much.

I continue to see temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms throughout the next week or two with a couple of dry reinforcing cold fronts arriving Tuesday and Thursday with lows in the 30's to 40's and highs in the 60's near 70 Tuesday before we drop below normal for this time of year. The animated last 30 day 500mb height anomalies suggest the current upper air pattern may relax slightly before shifting back to the idea of a strong NE Pacific Ridge and a deep cold upper trough across the Inter Mountain West and on East. The ensembles are suggesting a reloading of much colder air across Alaska which has been above normal temperature wise and cold air crossing the Artic from Siberia into the Canadian Prairies. The ensemble suggest during the next week to 10 days, temperature anomalies across those areas will drop to 30, possibly 40 degrees below normal. We'll look at things again later next week, but I believe that we will not see any temperatures in the 80's anytime soon.

[harp]

Thank you for your response!!!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

12z GFS showing a huge ice storm for Texas (including us) on Christmas Eve and Christmas. Of course this is 360 plus hours out.

[TexasMetBlake]

Howdy, err'body. Been a long time since I've last logged on here. Been lurking from time to time but wanted to kick off a new thread here regarding the week of Christmas and the pattern that is evolving that could lead to "interesting" weather at that time.

Usually I don't like to jump on board model runs that are in the la la land range of 228 hours (10 days) and beyond but I can't help but notice a few things.

First, the Euro ensembles continue to advertise a very persistent and amplified pattern leading into the week of Christmas with deep troughiness in the eastern 2/3 CONUS. While I don't quite see a McFarland signature in the 500 mb heights near the Yukon, there is no doubt a very stout ridge that will be building into Alaska that should help funnel blistering cold air out of that region and down into Canada. Plus you don't necessarily have to have the McFarland Sig to get cold down here. Placement of the arctic high is everything (normally want to see it drop into central Montana and down the lee of the Rockies like last week).

Second, the GFS may finally be sniffing the MJO phase 7/8 by the end of the run and aligning more with the Euro. What's that mean? Phase 7/8 tends to be a very favored phase for cold outbreaks in the US. Phase 8 especially for Texas. I've noticed that beginning with the 12z GFS Saturday, it brings snow to west Texas by 384 hours. Now you say, "wow, that's a long ways out." No doubt and I'm not sold. I sort of have the idea of "the safest place to be in the cone of uncertainty is right in the middle of it 5 days out." However, the 00z Sunday GFS came in and shows an ice event for central and north Texas. Okay, that's interesting. Then the 12z GFS continues the line of thinking except brings wintry weather clear down to Brownsville and up the Texas coast. Okay, now that's really interesting. So three out of the last five runs are now sniffing, A: much colder weather for the US, as seen in the height anomalies and the expanse of the 540 thickness values and B: noise in the subtropical jet.

Anecdotally speaking, snow or ice events in southeast Texas aren't well advertised this far out. Even this past winter storm, it wasn't sniffed out by the models until 18z Wednesday (the day before). I could tell something looked funny to me as early as 06z on the 5th but nothing definitive. Now before we all get hysterical, forecast soundings indicate perhaps this will be a much shallower airmass than what came through a few days ago meaning the chance of snow might be restricted due to warm mid levels. Ice (PL), if and only if the current 12z model is correct (and it likely is not) might be the predominant precip type.

The overall pattern certainly warrants a watch and wait because the pattern that is evolving does NOT indicate another blowtorch Christmas but one that makes the 1983 analog stick out like a sore thumb. After speaking with srainhoutx, we're both in agreement that there are interesting days that lie ahead.

Could "it" really happen twice in one year? Yes! If you go back and look at 1973, there was not 1, not 2 but THREE accumulating snowfalls that winter in Houston; two of which happened back to back within one week of each other that February. Stay tuned!

Btw, if anybody knows what happened to Mr. T (Tyler), lemme know!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m already model watching run to run and I should know better! With that said, I’m giddy about all of the variables that point to a cold and stormy Christmas Eve and Day

[TexasBreeze]

Thanks for this update thread! Been a lot of chatter about the pattern that week. The past storm wasn't all that cold at the surface, but mainly all about cold upper air that worked down to the surface via precip.
I believe Mr. T started school and things just became too busy for him. Don't know for sure though being so long ago. He was a good guy though!

[TexasMetBlake]

18z GFS continues the idea of a winter storm of some sorts for a large swath of central and north Texas.

[TexasBreeze]

Not only a winter storm for that area, but a heavy rain threat for our local area.

[Heat Miser]

Snow, absolutely incredible to see and I loved it, especially since it was still warm enough that road conditions weren't an issue, at least down in my neck. Ice, freezing rain, frozen black ice, no go. If any of y'all have driven over the high overpasses on the Toll, East Sam Houston Toll bridge or over the Galveston Causeway, you know exactly what I mean. That's a nightmare and a scenario I'd rather not see. But, by all means bring on the snow that doesn't freeze on the roadways, thanks.

[ticka1]

looking forward to reading the chatter and seeing what happens in the long range. weather has been boring except for last week. i would settle just for COLD COLD at christmas time.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’d love a repeat of 1983!

[Ptarmigan]

McFarland Signature


The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is negative, which there is ridging over Alaska. There is troughing over Greenland and Northeast Canada, which is positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). That setup was seen in December 1983 and February 1989. Not suggesting it will happen in any way.

[Katdaddy]

Beautiful SE TX weather through the week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s with mostly sunny skies. Temps reach the low 70s this afternoon with high clouds before the next dry cool front tonight.

[Katdaddy]

Hello Blake! Perhaps an interesting Christmas on the way as the model watch continues.