October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

[Electric Lizard]

The wind has been out of the NW for most of the morning up here in Greenvine, Washington County, but the front has just arrived with a pick up in wind speed and a noticeable drop in dew point.

[Katdaddy]

Today is the 28th anniversary of Hurricane Jerry which made landfall on Galveston Island Oct 15th, 1989. No other hurricane has ever made landfall this late in the year along the Upper TX Coast.

The cold front is gradually moving through the N portions SE TX and will move off the coast later this evening and overnight.

[Cromagnum]

Any chance of rain down here? It's been weeks since we've seen anything. I really do hate the season of fummer.

[Katdaddy]

No precip on the radar and the cold front is moving across Houston metro currently. No rain in the forecast through next Saturday but things could become more interesting next Sunday. Its a long way out but the Houston-Galveston NWS area forecast disco mentions it this afternoon:

The forecast becomes much more complex beginning Sunday with a large
amount of divergence in the model solutions between the GFS and Euro.
GFS shows a surface low pressure moving into the area from the Gulf,
while the Euro shows a cutoff low aloft sitting over the area for
several days starting next Sunday. Needless to say, widespread rain
chances were added, and this is a time period we will be monitoring
closely in the coming days.

[BlueJay]

I am enjoying the lull of the weather for now.

[Katdaddy]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
IN GALVESTON COUNTY THIS MORNING...

.STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
MAINLAND GALVESTON COUNTY AS WELL AS GALVESTON ISLAND THIS
MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH AT
TIMES BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID-MORNING.

TXZ238-161500-
/O.CON.KHGX.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-171016T1500Z/
Galveston-
Including the cities of Friendswood, Galveston, League City,
and Texas City
349 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* EVENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THROUGH MID-MORNING.

* IMPACT...STRONG AND GUSTY CROSSWINDS ON EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT FOR LIGHT-WEIGHT AND/OR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS MAY
ALSO BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drivers of vans...campers...trailers...and other high-profile
vehicles should be alert to the danger of these winds...
especially when driving along east to west oriented roads.

[srainhoutx]

Currently I have 58F at 7:00 AM in NW Harris County and still a bit breezy. Winds should decrease tonight allowing for the coldest morning so far of the Fall Season as temperatures will fall rapidly after sunset with ideal radiational cooling overnight with tomorrow's morning lows in the Upper 40's to mid 50's inland. Time for those jackets for the kids at the bus stop!

[Montgomery]

Currently I have 58F at 7:00 AM in NW Harris County and still a bit breezy. Winds should decrease tonight allowing for the coldest morning so far of the Fall Season as temperatures will fall rapidly after sunset with ideal radiational cooling overnight with tomorrow's morning lows in the Upper 40's to mid 50's inland. Time for those jackets for the kids at the bus stop!

Will be great for some Junior High Football tonight!!

[Ptarmigan]

Today is the 28th anniversary of Hurricane Jerry which made landfall on Galveston Island Oct 15th, 1989. No other hurricane has ever made landfall this late in the year along the Upper TX Coast.

The cold front is gradually moving through the N portions SE TX and will move off the coast later this evening and overnight.

Hurricane Jerry is the latest in satellite era. There are records of hurricanes hitting Upper Texas Coast in November. The most recent was in 1839.

Texas Hurricane History
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

[Katdaddy]

A cool clear morning across SE TX with temps in the 50s across most locations. Thunderstorms chances increase Friday through Sunday across SE TX ahead of the next trough and frontal system.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
453 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-181000-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Harris-Houston-
Liberty-Madison-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-
Washington-Wharton-
453 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Low relative humidities and dry conditions may result in elevated
fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across the region on
Saturday with the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms
continuing into Sunday as a cold front moves into the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Enjoyable fall weather will be replaced with an increase in moisture by Friday along with increasing rain chances.

A strong upper level trough will be developing across the western US as high pressure over TX begins to move eastward. This will allow onshore SE winds to return to SE TX starting as early as Wednesday and increasing into Thursday and Friday. A short wave trough will approach the area on Friday and combine with increasing moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms should be moving rapidly toward the NW at 15-20mph which should keep rainfall amounts on the light side.

More interesting period Saturday into Sunday as a warm front approaches the coast on Saturday and the air mass becomes increasingly unstable along with increasing 0-6km shear values. Warm front will move inland over SE TX and cross the region Saturday during peak heating which is raising the potential for the development of strong to severe storms.

Strong trough will approach from the west on Sunday with strong dynamic lift spreading across the area with the cold front. Could see widespread development of thunderstorms on Sunday with heavy rainfall and a severe weather risk. Will need to pay attention to the threat for the upper level trough to slow or attempt to cut off briefing over the SW US slowing the frontal boundary over SE TX and keeping rain chances going into early next week.

Upcoming weather Friday-Sunday could produce heavy rainfall and severe weather across the region…details will help determine how wet and stormy of a forecast may be needed this weekend as the upper air system begins to move into the upper air sampling network over Alaska over the next couple of days.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours as high
pressure over the eastern US ridges into SE TX. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface ridging extending from the Ohio Valley southwest into
Texas this morning is promoting light northeasterly winds across
the region. These light winds and clear skies have allowed for 4
AM CDT temperatures to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s inland
this morning, with coastal temperatures in the lower 60s. After a
cool start this morning, little to no clouds and dry air in place
today will allow for temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to
low 80s. With average daily temperatures for all four climate
sites running 3-7 degrees above normal for the month of October so
far, these near to below normal high temperatures are certainly
welcome. A listing of these deviations is provided in the climate
section below.

Another cool night is expected tonight as temperatures fall into
the upper 40s to mid 50s under clear skies, but the approach of a
disturbance now 300 miles west of Baja California will result in
shortwave ridging building over the region on Wednesday and high
temperatures warming a few degrees into the low to mid 80s.
Additionally, the departure of the surface ridge on Wednesday will
allow for light southerly to southeasterly winds to resume with
moisture advection Wednesday night keeping low temperatures
almost 10 degrees warmer than tonight in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Continued moisture advection on Thursday morning will allow for a
few showers to stream across the coastal waters and into the
southwestern counties during the day, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible on Friday as the disturbance near Baja
California lifts across Texas. Can`t rule out a few heavy
downpours on Friday as precipitable water values rise into the 1.5
to 1.75 inch range, but storm motions 15-20 MPH should keep that
risk for any one area brief.

Divergence begins to increase across Texas on Saturday ahead of a
strong upper trough arriving from the West Coast, and combined
with daytime heating, this will encourage another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across Southeast Texas during
the day. Mid-level lapse rates steepen ahead of this trough and
with increasing upper level support, what appears to be a warm
front lifting into the region and some marginal 0-6 km shear
(20-25 knots), could see a strong thunderstorm or two develop on
Saturday. As this upper trough swings across the state Saturday
night into Sunday, medium range guidance continues to advertise a
cold front surging across the state and clearing the region on
Sunday with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
developing along the front. With the parent trough providing
strong upper level forcing, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
increasing shear along and ahead of the front, the threat for
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may exist on Sunday for
Southeast Texas.

While most of the 00Z medium range deterministic guidance appears
to be converging on a solution that the trough will remain open
and progressively sweep across the region on Sunday, have concerns
that model runs have been inconsistent with their treatment of a
possible cut-off low solution (even as recent as the 16/12Z ECMWF
advertising it). As a result of this and continued GFS ensemble
support for a cut-off low to develop, have held on to low rain
chances into Sunday night should the trough move through slower or
possibly pinch off into an upper low late in the weekend. Should
current 00Z guidance verify, the front will quickly sweep off the
coast by Sunday night with dry weather and seasonable temperatures
to start next week. However, will need to monitor model solutions
(which will hopefully become more consistent once the upper
trough is sampled by the Alaska radiosonde observation network
today and the lower 48 sites by the end of the week) as the cut-
off low solution would provide for possibly a slower-moving front,
warmer temperatures, and rain chances extending into next week
longer than currently advertised by the forecast.

Huffman

MARINE...
Winds remain strong over Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters early
this morning. Daytime heating should help stabilize the thermal
gradient and the pressure gradient is also decreasing so am
expecting winds to subside quickly this morning. Will need to
extend the SCA and SCEC through part of the morning. NE winds
expected today into tonight with a ridge of high pressure to the
northeast and a weak area of low pressure near the Yucatan. The
ridge of high pressure flattens a bit and surface winds will
become east by Wednesday night and gradually increase in speed. A
moderate to possibly strong onshore flow is expected
Thursday/Friday as the gradient tightens in response to lee
cyclogenesis. Tide levels will increase on Friday in response to
the persistent onshore flow and tide levels will likely exceed 3.3
feet on Friday. 43

FIRE WEATHER...
Min RH values this afternoon will fall to between 27-35 percent
along and NNW of I-69 but winds will be considerably lighter
today. The lighter winds should limit the threat for fire weather
today. Moisture levels increase significantly on Wednesday through
the end of the week. 43

CLIMATE...
All four primary climate sites are currently reporting above
normal average daily temperatures for the month of October so
far. These anomalies through October 16 are listed below.

LOCATION DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
(AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES)
Houston IAH 4.6 F
Houston HOU 6.9 F
College Station 5.9 F
Galveston 3.9 F

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 50 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 79 54 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 79 65 82 70 83 / 0 0 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters
from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

[Texaspirate11]

Other than the ASTROS losing last night - its been a most delightful two days
Windows opened - almost fresh air
IS THIS HOUSTON???

[DoctorMu]

It hasn't hit 80°F in 3 days, with dew points in the 40s. About as good as it gets around here under mostly sunny skies.

One last cool and dry night before moisture returns.


The heavy rain this weekend might be pushed back a little bit.



283
FXUS64 KHGX 172043
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure ridge overhead. Should see another cool
night with temperatures falling to below normal over the inland
areas.

Next system will move into Southeast Texas over the weekend. Both
the GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement with the upper level
system moving overhead Saturday night through Sunday night. A
frontal boundary will move through the forecast area and bring
decent chances for showers and thunderstorms. Still a bit unsure
about timing and coverage -- the 12Z model runs show an indication
that better coverage will occur along and ahead of the frontal
boundary on Sunday as compared to Saturday. However, a warm front
should move northward/inland and bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor the potential for strong
to severe storms over the weekend. The models continue to show a
drying trend starting on Monday.

[Katdaddy]

Increasing moisture across SE TX today with some scattered showers mainly SW of the Houston-Galveston area. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Friday through the Sunday ahead of our next cold front.

[sambucol]

What will the temps be here after the passage of the cold front?

[srainhoutx]

What will the temps be here after the passage of the cold front?

Likely not any 'colder' than we saw this past Monday and Tuesday, but there is some uncertainty as to how much colder air filters into East and SE Texas next Tuesday as a big deep Eastern trough digs South. We may see slightly colder temperatures than current forecast.

Back on October 9th I mentioned the possibility of a big pattern change across the North Pacific as a potential Typhoon may re curve from the Western Pacific and buckle the jet stream from the semi zonal flow across the Pacific Ocean to a very amplified jet stream pattern that could usher in the coldest air of the season near Halloween.

This morning Typhoon Lan is organizing and will likely pass over or very near Japan and re curve into the Bering Sea as a potent extra tropical storm. The longer range guidance including the ECMWF are slowly coming into agreement that a potential deep and cold full latitude trough with very chilly air extending from Alaska, Canada and the Central Untied States arrive just before Halloween with some snow possible across the Texas Panhandle and the Southern Plains behind a strong cold front. Interestingly the MJO that has been extremely quiet has amplified well into Phase 5 suggesting there may indeed be a significant Hemispheric Pattern Change as we near late October.

[tireman4]

259
FXUS64 KHGX 191106
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
606 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.AVIATION...
Patchy fog has been displaced by VFR cigs between 3000-4000 feet
and this cig is expected to scatter out by mid morning as a pocket
of slightly drier air moves into the region from the ENE. A surge
of deeper moisture will approach from the SE this evening and
clouds will begin to fill back in and MVFR cigs will begin to
develop around 09z. Added VCSH for TAF sites south of I-10 between
09-12z as fcst soundings show more saturation and PW values
increase to around 1.90 inches. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A plume of Gulf moisture is evident on GOES-16 Total Precipitable
Water imagery moving towards the Middle Texas Coast early this
morning. Height falls associated with a series of shortwave
troughs lifting across New Mexico and western Texas today will
result in a deepening lee surface trough over the High Plains,
increasing easterly/southeasterly surface winds across the coastal
waters and pushing this moisture plume closer to the coast. The
main questions over the next 24 hours will be how far north and
east this moisture will make it into the region... and what that
will mean for rain chances today and tonight.

Light west to southwest 925-850 MB winds near the Texas coast
will help the moisture plume begin to spread north in the region
later this morning, pushing into the southwestern counties and
Matagorda Bay area. As winds back to the southeast by this
afternoon and strengthen with the deepening lee trough, this
moisture gets pushed farther north towards the Brazos Valley. 00Z
guidance differs by a few hours on when this backing actually
happens, however, and this will affect how close rain chances
actually make it to the Interstate 45 corridor today. Given some
uncertainty with this timing, have pulled a mention of isolated
showers and thunderstorms (15 PoPs) as far west as a Snook-Katy-
Liverpool line. However, expect best rain chances today to remain
much farther south and west. Isolated showers developing across
the western coastal waters later this morning should spread
inland as scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as
deeper moisture moves onshore. Expect rain chances to remain
mainly relegated to the coast and adjacent waters tonight with
loss of heating but cannot rule out a few showers spreading
farther inland as a second wave of moisture arrives overnight.
Otherwise, expect highs today in the low to mid 80s with lows
tonight in the low to mid 60s north of Interstate 10 and mid to
upper 70s south.

Continued moisture advection and another shortwave trough lifting
across the region on Friday is expected to result in the
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Best chances on Friday are expected to be along and west of
Interstate 45 in a corridor of low level warm air advection.
Forecast precipitable water values surge to 1.7 to 1.9 during the
afternoon hours and brief heavy rainfall will be possible Friday
through the weekend as atmospheric moisture levels remain
elevated. Rain chances are expected to focus closer to the coast
Friday night as speed convergence develops. Expect cloud cover and
rain on Friday to keep highs a few degrees cooler than today in
the lower 80s with lows Friday night in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

As a potent upper trough approaches the region on Saturday, a
60-70 knot jet streak looks to nose across the region ahead of it
and provide enough lift for scattered thunderstorms to again
develop across the region. This jet streak, combined with mid-
level lapse rates steepening to near 7 C/km across the Brazos
Valley and 0-6 km shear increasing to 25-30 knots, may result in
enough instability and/or organization for a strong thunderstorm
or two on Saturday across the Brazos Valley and remaining western
counties. As this upper trough swings across the Southern Great
Plains Sunday into Monday, it will send a cold front surging south
across the region. The upper jet structure as the cold front
enters the region appears to develop into more of a split-jet,
indicating the potential for strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms will continue into Sunday as the cold front arrives
with a band of thunderstorms developing along the cold front as it
pushes across the region. Model guidance still offers slightly
different solutions regarding if/when a closed low may develop,
but appear to be converging on a more consistent solution east of
the region and confidence is beginning to increase that the front
may clear the region Sunday.

Drier conditions are expected behind the cold front on Monday as
the upper trough (or low) exits the region, with a reinforcing
cold front arriving sometime Tuesday allowing for slightly below
normal temperatures in the mid to upper 70s by the middle of next
week.

Huffman

MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern U.S. and lower pressures over the
southern Gulf of Mexico will produce an easterly flow across the
coastal waters today. The gradient will tighten and stronger
onshore winds are expected. A SCEC will be issued for the Gulf
waters today and will likely need to be extended tonight. A
moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will persist through
Saturday. Water levels and tides are currently progged to exceed
3.0 feet Thursday afternoon and could exceed 3.5 feet on Friday
near times of high tide. A cold front, and associated showers and
thunderstorms, will cross the coastal waters on Sunday afternoon
and a moderate to strong offshore flow will develop Sunday night
and persist into the first half of next week. A reinforcing front
is penciled in for Tuesday. Small craft advisories are likely
behind both fronts. 43

FIRE WEATHER...
Satellite imagery not showing any hot spots this morning but not
sure if cirrus is blocking the view or the fires have been
extinguished. Moisture levels should increase today and RH values
will only fall to around 50 percent by afternoon. Precip will also
begin to develop south of I-10 later this afternoon so the fire
weather threat is greatly reduced today and will remain low
through the weekend. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 65 81 68 86 / 10 20 60 30 40
Houston (IAH) 84 68 80 72 85 / 10 20 60 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 82 75 81 76 84 / 10 20 60 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...43

[Katdaddy]

Thunderstorms offshore headed toward the Middle and Upper TX Coast with a few showers moving across SW portions of SE TX.

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 200027
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
725 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.AVIATION...
Higher moisture moving onshore from the southwest will thicken up
and lower cloud cover to periodic MVFR through the period. As
Matagorda Bay region moisture moves up within mid-upper level
southwesterlies and rides up and over lower level easterlies...light
precipitation will begin to develop across more western terminals
through Friday morning (daytime). An approaching upper level
trough will strengthen south(west)erly steering flow...maintaining
the moisture pump and breaks in cloud should warm surface
temperatures up to near 80F...or the temperature that may create
enough instability to initiate the development of afternoon
thunderstorms. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Radar this after showing some light rain W and SW of a Bay City to
Wharton line this afternoon. This activity lines up well with a
moisture axis coming from the Gulf as forecast. Moisture should
increase tonight and especially tomorrow as a warm front moves
north. Overall the short term forecast remains on track with
moisture axis beginning to set up west of I-45 tomorrow morning
where models have been pretty consistent with the onset of
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Instability tomorrow should be strong enough for a few
thunderstorms as a weak vorticity max moves over the area tomorrow
morning. Activity will likely persist into the early afternoon but
think activity will begin to decrease in coverage towards the late
afternoon as the weak disturbance moves NE.

Saturday forecast still looks drier compared to rain chances
tomorrow and Sunday. Upper level trough coming into the Pacific NW
will move across the Rockies Saturday with a vorticity lobe
breaking off from the main flow Saturday night. SW flow aloft will
be in place Saturday but really no good trigger for thunderstorm
activity. This means any activity will be diurnally driven and
initiated from any pre-existing boundaries on the mesoscale.
Forecast keeps 40 PoPs in place since forcing will be weak.

By Sunday morning the main upper level trough splits with the
northern upper low moving into Canada and Great Lakes. The
southern vorticity lobe begins to pinch off from the main flow and
close off by Sunday night over the Arklatex and Ozarks. By Monday
the models vary greatly in handling the evolution of this system
as it moves east. The good thing is that until Monday the models
are in good agreement. This means a cold front is on track to push
through early Sunday morning. It is quite possible a line of
storms will accompany the front. There is some question as to
whether severe weather will develop with the line of storms. The
upper trough dynamics and front are a bit out of phase but still
enough forcing to erode any capping. The NAM is a bit concerning
with its lack of QPF along the front compared to the GFS/ECMWF but
then again it is the NAM. The reason for the NAM`s lack of precip
seems to be boundary layer winds veering to the SW and W which
pushes all the moisture east ahead of the front. GFS/ECMWF show
similar patterns but are much slower to shift moisture east. These
solutions have been fairly consistent. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches looks reasonable for Friday through Sunday across the
area. Storms should be moving at fast enough rates that flooding
should not be a concern but some of the stronger storms could
produce isolated higher amounts closer to 3 inches. The front
should be through the area 18z Sunday through 00z Monday with
gusty northerly winds behind the front.

High pressure builds over the area Monday into Tuesday with a
reinforcing shot of colder air behind another front on Tuesday.
Wednesday low temperatures could be in the 40s with high
temperatures in the mid 70s. Cooler and drier conditions should
persist into the end of next week and models show another front
coming down next Friday. This make sense given the upper level
pattern becoming quite amplified with a mean long wave trough over
much of the eastern U.S.

Overpeck

MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern U. S. and lower pressures over the
southern Gulf will help to produce moderate/strong easterly winds
across the coastal waters through this evening. The SCEC has been
extended into the early evening (for the coastal waters). As this
high moves further to the N/NE, the low-level flow is expected to
become more southeasterly overnight through early Fri morning. As
this moderate/strong onshore flow persists over the weekend, deeper
moisture over the Gulf will help to produce some isolated/scattered
showers mainly during this period. The next cold front will also
produce some additional activity Sunday. A strong/gusty N/NW flow
in the immediate wake of the front should prompt Caution and
Advisory Flags for Sun night/Mon morning. This offshore flow will
likely persist through the first half of next week. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      66  83  69  87  68 /  20  60  30  40  60
Houston (IAH)              70  80  72  86  73 /  20  60  30  40  50
Galveston (GLS)            76  81  77  84  77 /  20  60  30  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31

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