September 2017 - Rain Chances/End Of Month Cold Front

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

.AVIATION...
Clear skies will start the day with a light NW wind. By late
afternoon some cirrus will move into the area with a BKN-OVC
cirrus shield expected tonight thinning out again on Wednesday.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Very little change to the forecast package in tonight`s update, with
quiet conditions continuing through late week. Current observations
show temperatures in the mid 50s in the northern reaches of the
forecast area near Conroe, ranging up into the low 70s along the
coast. Temperatures over these last few days have been anywhere from
5 to 10 degrees below normal. Dewpoints are also on the drier side
in the mid 50s to 60s this evening. GOES-16 precipitable water
imagery also tells the story with PWs between 0.5 to 0.8 inches.
Temperatures and dew points will begin to regulate as onshore flow
returns to the forecast late Wednesday, moistening dewpoints into
the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will also be on the rise,
with high temperatures today in the upper 80s to low 90s, once
again approaching normal for this time of year.

Mid to upper level moisture associated with the remnants of tropical
system Irma moves in from the north, and should leave us with a
partly cloudy sky for Wednesday. Forecast soundings indicate PWs
rising over one inch (1.0-1.25) again by late this afternoon. Begin
to see heights rise starting in the eastern counties (Chambers,
Liberty, and Polk) late Wednesday as surface ridging builds back
into SE TX. Kept dry conditions in the forecast through the week,
with the next best chance of precip returning this weekend.

A region of high pressure builds overhead late Saturday and holds
tight through next Wednesday. Though this will enhance subsidence
over the region, could get enough lift and moisture with help from
the seabreeze and return flow to produce some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the coastal counties
Saturday through Monday. Therefore, held PoPs at 20% to account
for this possibility, with Sunday looking like the day for best
coverage.

Hathaway

MARINE...
Long period swells continue to propagate into the coastal waters with seas
between 6-7 feet at buoy019. Swells will dampen with time but will probably
keep a caution statement going for the offshore waters today. Tides are about
a half foot above normal and there could be some very minor coastal flooding
issues at high tide through the end of the week. Improving conditions are
expected Tuesday through the mid-week period. Light to occasionally moderate
offshore flow will become onshore on Wednesday with the onshore flow increasing
on Thursday and continuing into the weekend. 43

FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions continued to dry across Southeast Texas, especially short
term fuels such as grasses. Relative humidity values will drop below
35 percent over many inland areas this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.
Onshore winds should help alleviate the situation with low level moisture
returning from the Gulf by Thursday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 66 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 87 68 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 87 75 87 77 87 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...08
Aviation/Marine...43

[tireman4]

I wanted to take some time this morning to wish our biggest supporter of our efforts here on the KHOU Weather Forum a Happy Birthday! Dr. Neil Frank is 86 years old today and still going strong. We all appreciate your dedication well beyond your retirement from the Government (NHC Tropical Specialist/NHC Director) and KHOU. You are and will continue to be an example of a "Good Servant" to our Community and our Nation.

Yes, he rocks. My inspiration for weather when I was very young.

[Katdaddy]

One more Happy Birthday to Dr. Neil Frank who is an icon in the tropical weather world.

More beautiful SE TX weather to continue through the rest of the week with highs in the low 90s.

9 year since Hurricane IKE and 10 years since rapidly intensifying Hurricane Humberto visited the Upper TX Coast.

[srainhoutx]

Our weekend into early next week sensible weather forecast suggest increasing moisture off the Gulf beginning in earnest Friday with PW's increasing to about 1.5 inches which further increase to near 2 inches Saturday into next Monday/Tuesday with an isolated chance of sea/bay breeze showers and storm ramping up, but at this time we see no chance of a widespread rainfall event. High pressure looks to take control again a week from today squashing our rain chances. This dry and cool weather has been a tremendous blessing for those working hard in the Recovery Phase after Harvey's visit to our Region.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131051
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
551 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.AVIATION...
Cirrus will continue over the area today but should begin to
thin later tonight. SW winds this morning will become S-SW during
the day and differential heating may foster a weak sea breeze late
today and winds may briefly swing to the SE before veering back to
the SW tonight. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High clouds this evening have kept our temperatures warmer tonight
in comparison to these last few nights, with current temperatures in
the upper 50s/ lower 60s in our northern zones ranging into the
upper 70s closer to the coast.

Moisture is on the rise with the return to onshore flow as of
Tuesday, and GOES-16 precipitable water field indicates PWs are
back up over an inch. With surface ridging building in from the
east, conditions should remain dry through the short term
(Thursday and Friday). Forecast soundings keep PWs below 1.5
inches until Saturday when the seabreeze becomes more dominant,
advecting in more moisture over SE TX.

Bumped PoPs up to 20% for Saturday to account for the rise in PWs
indicated by the both the forecast soundings, as well as the
increase in dewpoints noticed in the 00Z global guidance.
Therefore, a slight chance for widely scattered showers and storms
will be possible Saturday. Again, best chance for scattered
coverage will be Sunday with PWs reach near to slightly above 2.0
inches. Similar conditions will be in store for Monday, but by
Tuesday we begin to see the upper level ridge take control and dry
things out a bit. This will lessen our chance for precip Tuesday
and Wednesday, and expecting coverage to be more isolated to
widespread.

Little variation in the high temperature forecast over the next
week, with highs remaining in the low 90s across the upper TX coast.
Daily minimum temperatures will slowly rise with Wednesday`s low
temperatures falling into upper 60s to the north and mid 70s along
the coast, by the weekend ranging between the mid to upper 70s.
Skies should begin to clear out Wednesday evening keeping skies
mostly clear Thursday. Will see more of a partly cloudy sky come
Friday, to accompany the rise in PWs and advection of moisture
into the region.

Hathaway

MARINE...
Swells have subsided and generally low seas and light winds will
prevail today. A light to moderate onshore flow will persist through
the end of the week with the slightly stronger winds expected at
night. Some very minor coastal flooding issues at high tide will
also remain possible for the next couple of days due to high
astronomical high tides. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 69 93 70 92 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 91 71 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 86 78 87 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...08
Aviation/Marine...43

[Ptarmigan]

One more Happy Birthday to Dr. Neil Frank who is an icon in the tropical weather world.

More beautiful SE TX weather to continue through the rest of the week with highs in the low 90s.

9 year since Hurricane IKE and 10 years since rapidly intensifying Hurricane Humberto visited the Upper TX Coast.

Humberto and Ike made landfall on the same day and time one year apart.

[Katdaddy]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 140852
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The deep layer low pressure trough located over the Upper Texas
coastal areas early this morning will slowly shear out and move
east of the area today and Friday. Clouds caught up in the system
that were located across the area early this morning will also
slowly dissipate today. This will lead to clearing skies and a
gradual warming trend today and Friday.

Over the weekend and into the start of next week, high pressure
ridging will lead to an upper level high pressure area developing
over or near Southeast Texas and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The models show some weak isentropic lift occurring underneath the
high pressure area. This should lead to diurnal chances for
isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Highest
chances look to be on Sunday and Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday
the models show the potential for a shortwave trough to move from
Mexico to across West and North Texas as the upper high retreats
to the south. This shortwave trough looks to have its origin with
a Pacific tropical system. As the system moves into the state, the
increase in moisture and upper level lift will help keep chances
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm across
Southeast Texas into the middle of next week.

40

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain out of the south southeast between 10 to 15 kts,
with 15 kts occuring more often in the early morning hours. Winds
will back in direction becoming more east southeasterly through the
weekend. Seas should remain between 1-2 feet and increase to 2-3
feet by early next week. Tides are currently running just slightly
above normal, around 1 to 2 feet above MLLW depending on the
location.

Hathaway

[tireman4]

Ughh

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141525
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1025 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
No changes with this update. Mostly sunny skies along with the re-
turn of onshore winds should make for a warm/humid afternoon over
SE TX. 41

[srainhoutx]

Our dry and very comfortable weather since Harvey came calling begins to transition to a typical late summer pattern as the weekend and early next week arrive. In the Pacific NW a rather deep trough is digging SE into the Great Basin allowing for a SW flow aloft to develop with an onshore flow at the surface bringing increased Gulf moisture into Texas. Meanwhile in the Eastern Pacific, remnants of once Hurricane Max and Hurricane Norma approaching the Baja Peninsula look to spread mid/upper level moisture across our Region beginning Saturday and increasing Sunday as PW's increase to around 2 inches. We are not expecting a heavy rainfall event, but some of the garden variety thundershowers may drop a quick 1/2 to 1 inch of rain where those pop up.

The medium range sensible weather keeps a 20% chance of afternoon showers throughout next week. Still no sign of that first strong Fallish Cold Front on the Horizon.

In the extended range, I am monitoring the potential of increased moisture pooling in the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf/Central America/Gulf of Tehuantepec as what appears to be a monsoonal trough/gyre is suggested by some of the guidance. It seems like a lifetime since Cindy developed way back in June and as of this morning we have Tropical Depression 14 off the West Coast of Africa. Those pre season above average Hurricane Season for 2017 certainly have verified.

We are already planning for next Hurricane Season. Some of our very own KHOU Weather Forum Members will be attending and likely Speaking at the 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference early next April in South Padre Island. The Conference has been expanded to 3 full days of Presentations next year.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Post Harvey dry weather will be slowly coming to an end over the weekend.

Tropical moisture which was scoured out of the area with a cold front post Harvey will be slowly returning to the area late this weekend into early next week. Additionally, active tropical systems over the eastern Pacific will begin to provide mid and high level moisture across the state as well as some energy aloft from TS Norma which will be heading toward BAJA as a hurricane.

Combination of increasing moisture and disturbances ejecting across MX and into TX will result in increasing rain chances starting Sunday and into next week. Upper level ridge of high pressure will remain near/over the area which will help to keep rain chances on the lower side 20-40%, but this high may slide southward toward the middle of the week allowing better rain chances at some point Tuesday-Thursday.

Current expected rainfall totals should generally average less than .50 of an inch.

Tropics:
TS Jose continues to loop and meander over the SW Atlantic and should begin to move toward the NW and NNW over the next several days. Latest models have shifted enough westward to suggest Jose may become a threat to portions of the US E/NE coast by the middle of next week.

TD # 14 has formed over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and is moving westward this morning and will likely become a tropical storm later today. This system should not impact any land areas for the next 3 days.

96L over the central tropical Atlantic midday between TD 14 and the Caribbean Sea has a high chance (90%) of development over the next 5 days as it moves generally westward toward the eastern Caribbean Islands.

[Texaspirate11]

We are already planning for next Hurricane Season. Some of our very own KHOU Weather Forum Members will be attending and likely Speaking at the 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference early next April in South Padre Island. The Conference has been expanded to 3 full days of Presentations next year.Attachments

Gee...I should speak on disability issues/preparedness....*wink*

[srainhoutx]

No significant changes expected in our longer range Updated Climate Precipitation Center Outlook as we head toward the end of September.

[Katdaddy]

Another beautiful for warm SE TX weather day however the tropics remain very active across the Atlantic Basin but no threat for the Gulf of Mexico currently. With that said the 2017 hurricane season is not over and I would not be surprised to see additional GOM development during the next 6 weeks. Hopefully any GOM development remains away from TX and LA.

[DoctorMu]

Another beautiful for warm SE TX weather day however the tropics remain very active across the Atlantic Basin but no threat for the Gulf of Mexico currently. With that said the 2017 hurricane season is not over and I would not be surprised to see additional GOM development during the next 6 weeks. Hopefully any GOM development remains away from TX and LA.

The good news is we're starting to run out of climo re: TC threats for the western Gulf as September begins to wane...although GoM action is always possible. It's been a unique year, so who knows...

The Lesser Antilles and PR are again threats...from Maria. Euro, GFS, Canadian have Maria swinging away from Florida and the Gulf off the East Coast.

[Cromagnum]

So we have an 80% chance of rain and there isn't a sprinkle within 100 miles.

[mcheer23]

So we have an 80% chance of rain and there isn't a sprinkle within 100 miles.

There was not a 80 percent chance of rain today.

[DoctorMu]

A better chance of rain this upcoming week as a tongue of moisture enters from the Gulf and NW flow says goodbye.. It's been dry since Harvey. Very good for cleanup and rebuilding.


Somehow I thought 18 inches of rain might last longer... That's runoff - but am not complaining, even if the sprinklers were back on today...


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
941 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.UPDATE...
The slug of higher 1.9 inch pwat air mass just off the coast will
come ashore over the next 8-12 hours...creeping up from the
Matagorda Bay region within southwesterly steering flow. This
enhanced lower level moisture flux...with daytime morning
convective temperatures in the middle 80s...will increase shower
and storm chances from sunrise (sub) slight chances to 30% across
the southern half of the CWA through noon. As temperatures warm
into the upper 80s...there is a decent chance that 30-40% of the
southern forecast area will pick up measurable rain. Many areas
impacted by Harvey`s devastating intense rainfall have not experienced
rainfall in nearly three weeks. This may change in the coming
days as a low QPF shower/storm or two passes across to the north.
31

&&

[Cromagnum]

So we have an 80% chance of rain and there isn't a sprinkle within 100 miles.

There was not a 80 percent chance of rain today.

According to my Weather app there was. And there is 60-100% every day this week.

[Katdaddy]

Expect scattered mainly daytime showers and thunderstorms through the week across SE TX.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
431 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The main issue for this morning is patchy dense fog. May need to
issue a dense fog advisory -- if so it will mainly north and west
of Houston. Model sounding forecasts indicate that any fog that
does form should lift between 14 and 15Z at the latest.

Otherwise, expect chances for showers and thunderstorms to
increase this morning. The models show that the 500 mb high
pressure area will weaken and move southward today. Model sounding
forecasts also show increasing CAPE and a diminishing cap. SPC Rap
analysis also shows that PWs are on the increase and at 3:45 AM
ranged from 1.7 to 1.9 along and off of the coast. Some of the
high resolution models seemed to be a bit overdone, especially
early this morning over the inland areas. Do expect isolated
coverage before sunrise over the Gulf waters spreading inland.
Scattered coverage should develop during the mid and late morning
period at the latest and continue through the afternoon.

Expect scattered daily coverage of showers and thunderstorms to
persist through at least Thursday. Both the GFS and ECMWF show
upper level shortwave troughs moving across the area each day. By
Thursday and Friday the upper pattern morphs into a trough from
the Mid Atlantic into SE Texas with an upper level high pressure
ridge developing west and north of our area. Earlier model runs
had the ridge overhead of the forecast area for the weekend.
Latest runs now have more of a trough overhead and thus better
chances for rain. Now have better confidence that the daily
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist
through the weekend.

[tireman4]

So we have an 80% chance of rain and there isn't a sprinkle within 100 miles.

There was not a 80 percent chance of rain today.

According to my Weather app there was. And there is 60-100% every day this week.

If in doubt, always consult the NWS or pro mets here. I am not sure where you saw 60-100 percent. ( Is it Accuweather)