September 2017 - Rain Chances/End Of Month Cold Front

[srainhoutx]

Good news this morning. A fairly strong early September cool front looks to push into our Region and well offshore protecting us from any additional heavy rainfall worries. The NHC has stopped monitoring the area in the Bay of Campeche as well.

[BlueJay]

Like Ptarmigan said, "A New Hope"!

[ticka1]

Bill Read confirmrd cold front forecast on my facebook post this morning!

[DoctorMu]

Bill Read confirmrd cold front forecast on my facebook post this morning!

I called it last night


TG - it's an Irma blocker.

[ticka1]

Bill Read confirmrd cold front forecast on my facebook post this morning!

I called it last night


TG - it's an Irma blocker.

yes i agree - i got excited when i read your post last night. It will be nice.

[srainhoutx]

Our sensible weather forecast continues to be encouraging. A progressive cool front should arrive Tuesday into Wednesday bringing cooler/drier air a little chance of additional heavy rainfall. These cooler/drier conditions are expected to last into next weekend. This is great news for those working so hard to recover and begin the long road ahead in rebuilding.

[srainhoutx]

Another tropical cyclone may form behind #Irma by Weds, but the following week looks quieter in the N. Hemisphere http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /index.php …

[srainhoutx]

Many of us are out assisting our Neighbors in the massive cleanup effort after Harvey. The forecast is looking good with only a slight chance of heat of the day showers and thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow mainly along the Sea/Bay Breeze. Probably about a 20% chance at best. Tuesday we will likely see an increase in rain chances as the first rather strong early September Cold front arrives. This is about a week early according to our Local Climatology. Shower and some thunderstorms are possible as this rather fast moving front pushes in Tuesday evening and should be well offshore Wednesday morning. Cooler and drier air with its origin in Canada will drop day time highs to the low to 80's with night lows in the upper 50's to low 60's depending on where you live. Fingers crossed that the deep Eastern trough protects our Neighbors in the Bahamas, Florida and along the East Coast from any direct impact for Hurricane Irma.

[srainhoutx]

No significant changes to our expected sensible weather forecast throughout the coming week. A strong early Fall Season Cold front arrives Tuesday night/early Wednesday and pushes well offshore ushering in much cooler and drier air. Rainfall amounts may bring a quarter to possibly a half inch at best in some isolated locations. An area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche is being monitored by the NHC. Conditions appears hostile for any significant development for that feature due to increased NW flow with the frontal passage and very dry air over the NW and Central Gulf Coast. Major Hurricane Irma is expected to possibly impact the NW Leeward Islands and possibly Cuba over the next 5 Days before encountering that Cold front over Florida and turning N. Updates on Irma can be found in our Hurricane Central Area of the KHOU Weather Forum.

[srainhoutx]

^^^ As I posted above, It appears that strong cold front will protect the Texas/Louisiana Coast from any impacts for that area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[Ptarmigan]

No significant changes to our expected sensible weather forecast throughout the coming week. A strong early Fall Season Cold front arrives Tuesday night/early Wednesday and pushes well offshore ushering in much cooler and drier air. Rainfall amounts may bring a quarter to possibly a half inch at best in some isolated locations. An area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche is being monitored by the NHC. Conditions appears hostile for any significant development for that feature due to increased NW flow with the frontal passage and very dry air over the NW and Central Gulf Coast. Major Hurricane Irma is expected to possibly impact the NW Leeward Islands and possibly Cuba over the next 5 Days before encountering that Cold front over Florida and turning N. Updates on Irma can be found in our Hurricane Central Area of the KHOU Weather Forum.

I think that low pressure area will be tagged as Invest 95L.

[cperk]

I will use this break to have a transfer switch installed.Hope to get that done this week.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051503
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1003 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to increase PoPs in the coastal waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing an area of convection off Matagorda and
showing little movement; therefore, have increased PoPs in that
marine zone. Have also made minor tweaks to other weather grids
though no major changes have been made from the previous forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT Tue Sep 5 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A bit more activity across the Gulf waters this morning (in part-
icular to our east/far SW). Cannot rule out isolated/widely scat-
tered activity this afternoon given the return of some low-level
moisture/presence of a shortwave aloft, along with the seabreeze
and daytime heating. However, the best rain chances will be late
tonight through early Weds morning with the passage of the front.
The best dynamics will be right along this cold front itself and
only expecting rainfall totals from one quarter to one half inch
at this time. A much cooler/drier airmass to settle across SE TX
in the wake of this front through the rest of the week. 41

MARINE...
The light onshore winds will continue today before the cold front
arrives early Wednesday morning. Winds in the wake of the front
should increase to around 15 knots in the afternoon and should top
out around 20 knots sustained Wednesday night/Thursday morning over
the Gulf waters. SCA conditions look likely Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning and possibly into Friday offshore.

45

TROPICAL...
Lower pressure in the Bay of Campeche has seen an increase in deep
convection around it and over land that has been spreading offshore
early this morning. NHC had it 50 percent in 48hr and 60 percent in
120hr for development as of 2am TWOAT. Surface pressures look to be
around 1009mb based on 07z analysis and this will continue to be an
area of interest for the Western Gulf though for the Upper TX Coast
no impacts expected thanks to the cold front Wednesday.

Cat 4 Hurricane Irma looking impressive on satellite headed
generally W and WNW through Sunday morning nearing the northern-most
portions of Cuba. Guidance shows it taking a hard right turn as
upper low over AR/MS easily snags it taking it northward. Impacts
from Irma should be minimal to none...perhaps some swell propagating
toward the Texas coastal waters as it makes the turn if it gets far
enough west to move through Key West region.

45

AVIATION...
VFR across the southern areas with the exception of some light
fog CXO northward so far. The fog will probably develop over the
south as well mainly for the rural sites. Relatively dry column
this morning moistening up slightly this afternoon should limit
rainfall coverage with just an increase in CU across the region.
Cold front pushing through Central Oklahoma this morning should
move into SETX turning winds to the north and increasing rain
chances between 06z Wed-18z Wed then drying out quickly. Will
likely be adding VCSH (possibly VCTS at UTS/CLL) to the late
periods of the upcoming 12z package and lingering near GLS to 15z
Wed. MVFR ceilings may linger post frontal with CAA and moderate
gusty northerly flow.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 69 86 59 86 / 20 40 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 74 87 60 85 / 20 40 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 78 87 71 84 / 30 30 40 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99

[Cromagnum]

What are the real odds that we are safe from Irma? Ike was in a similar position, forecasted to turn north into Florida, and then punched us right in the mouth.

[jasons2k]

What are the real odds that we are safe from Irma? Ike was in a similar position, forecasted to turn north into Florida, and then punched us right in the mouth.

Euro turns Irm, unlike Ike...

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061015
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
515 AM CDT Wed Sep 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...
While the initial line of storms (with the pre-frontal trof) that
moved in overnight fizzled, it does appear to be finding new life
over the coastal waters this morning. The isolated activity along
the cold front itself (currently moving into our far northern FA)
is also struggling to hold together. Based on these trends...have
scaled back POPS a bit for the rest of this morning. However, the
activity over the near and offshore waters could be rather robust
when the boundary finally makes it into the Gulf waters.

The forecast for SE TX going forward will likely just be a temper-
ature one. A highly amplified upper ridge to the west and the cor-
responding trof to the east will help to keep a deep NW flow over
the state the rest of the week. And at the surface, not expecting
any significant onshore flow/return moisture until perhaps at the
very earliest the start/middle of next week. Also no worries with
the system in the western Gulf nor systems approaching from the E
given the presence/persistence of the upper ridge. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Outflow pushing offshore at 5 am with the cold front lagging behind
by 3 to 4 hours. Winds have already gone around to the north and
should remain that way today with an increase in winds around mid
morning as cooler air aloft behind the frontal boundary spreads out
over the coastal waters and mixes down. Have hoisted an SCA for the
Gulf waters 10 am on and will need to keep an eye on the Bays as
winds this afternoon and evening may flirt with SCEC. This very
persistent offshore flow continues through Sunday as high pressure
anchors to the north and northeast of the region and Hurricane Irma
tracks north near/over FL. Tropical storm Katia in the SW Gulf/Bay
of Campeche should meander around there before the cold front slices
in and dry air aloft impacts Katia. If Katia develops faster may see
some swell spread into the Upper TX coastal water or if Irma clips
the west side of FL...for now will not include these contributions
to the seas until confidence increases greatly.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
Challenging forecast with some areas post frontal dropping to IFR
(UTS) but still expect MVFR ceilings through mid morning then
gradually lifting and drying as much drier air aloft spreads into
the area with the passage of the 925 front. Gusty north to northeast
winds today and again Thursday with SKC/VFR conditions.

45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 61 85 61 87 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 87 61 85 61 86 / 10 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 72 83 71 84 / 20 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 AM CDT
Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[DoctorMu]

What are the real odds that we are safe from Irma? Ike was in a similar position, forecasted to turn north into Florida, and then punched us right in the mouth.

Irma will run into the front well before that, and the Bermuda high will also steer her north.

Enjoy the nice weather. T&P for Florida.

[BlueJay]

Gee it feels good outside!

[Katdaddy]

A refreshing dry N/NE winds across the Upper TX Coast this evening behind this morning cool front. This is well needed and will keep Hurricane Katia away from SE TX.

[Ptarmigan]

A refreshing dry N/NE winds across the Upper TX Coast this evening behind this morning cool front. This is well needed and will keep Hurricane Katia away from SE TX.

I would not be surprised if Katia is a major hurricane.....................