September 2017 - Rain Chances/End Of Month Cold Front

[DoctorMu]

Very juicy air out there. Spotty showers commencing.

[snowman65]

I just want to know when our next front is going to be here.......

[tireman4]

I just want to know when our next front is going to be here.......

Srain has stated October...but he will have to address that as he fine tunes his forecast.

[srainhoutx]

I just want to know when our next front is going to be here.......

If the 12Z GFS is to be believed, a weak boundary may stall to our North and West around September 30th. I would not bet the farm on that though...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I just want to know when our next front is going to be here.......

If the 12Z GFS is to be believed, a weak boundary may stall to our North and West around September 30th. I would not bet the farm on that though...

Yeah as srain points out, hour 276 onward has some cool nights and highs in the 80s, but nothing of note for an actual COLD front yet.

The Red River northward really cools down during the latter half of the run. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181737
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1237 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Showers and a few thunderstorms are erupting across the area as
moisture surges into the area. Water vapor imagery shows a very
subtle shortwave trough over Southeast Texas has been digging a
bit more space for itself through the morning. Additionally,
though yet non-operational, GOES-16`s TPW product shows
precipitable water near or exceeding two inches across the entire
area, including locations that earlier this morning were closer to
1.5 inches. As a result, the main change to the forecast this
morning has been to increase rain chances across the area to
reflect current trends. Secondarily, have blunted high
temperatures slightly in most areas with a greater expectation of
clouds and rain. However, this has been made trickier as obs
indicate that where clouds aren`t providing a significant
obscuration, we`re actually running a bit warmer than forecast.
The high forecast for this afternoon attempts to stitch these two
disparate ideas together. Finally, PoPs are brought to an end
rather quickly, as subsidence behind this trough along with the
loss of heating should cut convection off pretty rapidly.

Luchs


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/

AVIATION...
Inland TAF sites will be dealing with SHRA/TSRA and associated MVFR
ceilings and visibilities this afternoon as activity continues to
develop and work its way generally off to the N and NE. Should see
a decrease in coverage later this afternoon through early this evening.
Some MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible again overnight
at inland sites, and areas near the coast could see possible SHRA
toward morning. Activity should spread inland again tomorrow afternoon,
but current thinking is that we might see less coverage than what we
are seeing today. 42

[joestephens]

We had a nice rain in the Galleria, enough to wait for it to pass at the Starbucks at Westheimer and Suffolk so I wouldn't get soaked at about 1:30 PM.

[CrashTestDummy]

.11 inch here in the swamps of northern Brazoria County. Now things are a nice, steamy 90!

[Texaspirate11]

THIS Might bring some joy...

http://texashillcountry.com/old-farmers ... ign=buffer

[unome]

crazy lightning & rain here, wish there were more rain gauges nearby, doesn't seem to cover this area well, judging by the rivers flowing from the yards

[srainhoutx]

crazy lightning & rain here, wish there were more rain gauges nearby, doesn't seem to cover this area well, judging by the rivers flowing from the yards

Same here. Over an inch in the rain gauge and still pouring.

[unome]

ick

[srainhoutx]

Monday evening briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall has developed in the last 1-2 hours over western into NC Harris County where 1-2 inches has fallen. Additional slow moving heavy rainfall has developed over NE Harris County.

Main threat will be street flooding with high short duration rainfall rates, but some rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible especially the creeks the feed into Addicks Reservoir and portions of White Oak and Buffalo Bayous.

Should see heavy rainfall gradually weaken and dissipate early this evening, but wet pattern will remain in place into mid week with additional potential for quick heavy rainfall rates and street flooding.

Another concern is in subdivisions where flood debris may be piled over the storm water inlets and roadside ditches and may slow or prevent effective run-off and drainage.

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

TXZ212-213-190000-
Waller TX-Harris TX-
618 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 615 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cypress, or 7 miles northwest of Addicks Park Ten, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

Street flooding is possible with these clustering storms. They are
currently slowing in forward motion and are producing 1 t 2 inch per
hour rainfall rates. A short fuse Urban Flood Advisory may be needed
if this clustering rain does not weaken nor move out of the area.

Locations impacted include...
Bellaire, West University Place, Katy, Jersey Village, Brookshire,
Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village,
Downtown Houston, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Spring Branch North,
Second Ward, Greater Greenspoint, Greater Heights, Neartown /
Montrose, Memorial Park, Eldridge / West Oaks, Fourth Ward, Spring
Branch West and Addicks Park Ten.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High rainfall is occurring with these clusters of showers and
storms, and this may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your
vehicle through any flooded roadways.

[Katdaddy]

Flood Advisory issued as afternoon thunderstorms continue over E Central Ft Bend, Central Harris, and N Brazoria Counties. The storms will begin to dissipate with loss of daytime heating.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

TXC039-157-201-190145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0229.170918T2338Z-170919T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fort Bend TX-Brazoria TX-Harris TX-
638 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 845 PM CDT.

* At 637 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to slow
moving and training thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding
in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northwestern Pasadena, western Pearland, southeastern Sugar Land,
northwestern Baytown, Missouri City, Deer Park, Stafford, South
Houston, Bellaire, West University Place, Katy, Galena Park,
Jacinto City, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney
Point Village, Cloverleaf, Downtown Houston, Greenway / Upper Kirby
Area and Spring Branch North.

[Katdaddy]

Flash Flood Warning issued for E Central Ft Bend, N Brazoria, and SE Harris Counties until 8:45PM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
708 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 845 PM CDT.

* At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area with rates as high as 4 inches
per hour at times. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly. Do
not drive across flooded roads!

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northwestern Pasadena, northwestern Pearland, Missouri City, Deer
Park, Stafford, South Houston, Bellaire, West University Place,
Galena Park, Jacinto City, Cloverleaf, Fresno, Greater Eastwood,
Greater Hobby Area, Greater Third Ward, Astrodome Area, Macgregor,
University Place, Second Ward and Channelview.

[Ounce]

2.39" near the Ikea store.

[Katdaddy]

Additional scatted afternoon and evening thunderstorms across SE TX today with some locally heavy rains and gusty winds similar to yesterday. This pattern looks to continue through the rest of the week.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will
occur today. Isolated strong storms could produce strong gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will
continue through Wednesday and Thursday with isolated strong
storms producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
possible. Thunderstorm chances are expected to diminish on Friday
and Saturday before returning Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

[srainhoutx]

Just emptied 2.34 inches out of the rain gauge for the past 24 hours. The mesocale guidance generally suggest less areal coverage today and very isolated, but increase showers and thunderstorms area wide once again on Wednesday.

[tireman4]

To what Srain alluded to..the NWS Mets agree.


000
FXUS64 KHGX 191142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar shows a few showers off the coast that could affect KLBX
and KGLS but overall activity is less in coverage compared to
yesterday morning. GOES 16 10.3 to 3.9 micron difference channel
shows some patchy fog around Houston with more robust stratus
north of Houston. Obs confirm this with LIFR ceilings for most
areas north of Houston. Fog has been patchy in these areas wit
visibility ranging from 1/4 mile to 6 miles. Fog and stratus
should erode later this morning with showers possible for the
afternoon hours. Again shower coverage is not expected to be quite
like yesterday, most likely more widely scattered with an
isolated thunderstorm. Hi-res mesoscale models not showing much
thunderstorms so TAFs will keep with VCSH for now, but could be
updated with VCTS/TSRA.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Distinct moisture plume evident on the GOES-16 Total Precipitable
Water image overhead of Southeast Texas early this morning. PWs of
2.0 inches were across all but the far northern quarter of
counties where the PWs fell to about 1.7 inches in Houston County.
The models show this moisture plume should remain overhead through
the mid afternoon period. The NAMBufr model forecast soundings
show the potential for thunderstorms with MUCAPE values 2000 to
2500 this afternoon. Could see gusty winds in the stronger storms
as an inverted V profile develops under 850 mb during the
afternoon. Also cold see isolated areas of locally heavy rainfall.
Even though the 2-inch PWs are not significant when compared to
the historical PWs for this time of the year, the K-Index values
do reach 34 this afternoon. Do not think the coverage will be as
much as yesterday. The HRRR and Texas Tech both show only isolated
coverage for the most part; although, the seabreeze and bay
breeze combined with outflows should lead to scattered coverage
inland of the coastal counties.

Wednesday and possibly Thursday may see better coverage than today.
The global models depict an upper level shortwave trough will
move across the Southern Plains into Southeast Texas. The models
then show the shortwave trough deepening over LA into Southeast
Texas on Thursday with a high pressure ridge building across the
mid MS Valley into N and Central Texas. The ridge should continue
to build on Friday as a deep layer upper level low pressure trough
deepens over the Rockies through Southern CA. There was some
discrepancy as to how far east and south the upper ridge will be
on Thursday and Friday. By the weeknight, an upper low will form
near or over the lower MS Valley area. This scenario should lead
to less shower and thunderstorm coverage over the forecast area.

The model solutions diverge next week over our area. With the
upper trough moving into the Plains, do expect rain chances will
increase on Sunday and Monday.

40

MARINE...
In general, moderate southeast winds will persist through the end of
the week across the Upper Texas Coast. Seas will remain around 3
feet as a result. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along
the coast and inland with higher moisture over the region.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 75 93 75 91 / 20 10 20 10 40
Houston (IAH) 90 76 90 75 89 / 30 10 40 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 79 86 / 20 20 30 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39