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tireman4 wrote:Last check....Freeport..but I would think a little south..but who knows.

That's kinda where I have been thinking as well. That would be terrible for Houston.. Hopefully that isn't the case but these things can wobble a lot as they approach land.

The main jist is that ithe gfs 12z models it a major hurricane at landfall and the system sits pretty much stationary for days to the sw of here around Matagorda. Not good at all...

I'm getting worried about potential impacts to the southwest side of Houston. I made a joke earlier that Harvey was going to come straight up 59. However, if it really does seem to be moving in from that side - it puts my area on the edge of some rough weather.

I'd like to be able to warn my neighbors of what we can expect in our area - any ideas of local impacts to areas such as southwest Houston/Missouri city/Stafford/Sugarland?

thanks!

That is an Andrew question...

Still sticking to my original prediction of Matagorda Bay

Recon, as of right now, of Harvey...

houstonia wrote:I'm getting worried about potential impacts to the southwest side of Houston. I made a joke earlier that Harvey was going to come straight up 59. However, if it really does seem to be moving in from that side - it puts my area on the edge of some rough weather.

I'd like to be able to warn my neighbors of what we can expect in our area - any ideas of local impacts to areas such as southwest Houston/Missouri city/Stafford/Sugarland?

thanks!

This far north (as it stands right now) rain will be the primary threat. Expect 7-10 inches widespread across the region but some places will see a lot more (20+ inches). IF track continues to shift north, wind could become more of a threat.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Still sticking to my original prediction of Matagorda Bay

I said San Luis Pass...distance of 50 miles.

tireman4 wrote:

Ounce wrote:

tgal wrote:Thank all of you so very much. I have a very disappointed daughter but you helped. As of now she is going to call it off. I hope they do call for evacuations because I am worried about her family that is down there.

Again, I really appreciate your help

I didn't even know there was a Portland in Texas.

Yep Oz, it is near Gregory Texas......it is near Beaumont...

Thanks again for all the information. She isn't going.

What is the radius of Harvey - how many miles across?

12z hmon is a decent amount further up the coast.

WOW.

Keep in mind, folks of the science that explains why major hurricanes are so dangerous: force and energy of the wind are tremendous, making any flying object a deadly projectile and creating massing storm surge.

If we go to the fluid drag equation we see why:

Fd = 1/2 Cd • Ap • rho • v[sqr]

where Cd = coefficient of drag
Ap = are expose normal or perpendicular to moving air
rho = density of air or fluid
v[sqr] is the square of the relative velocity (air speed - ground speed)

Thus the FORCE of a hurricane's wins is proportional to the SQUARE of the wind speed

Example: CAT 1 of 75 mph; CAT 5 of 155 mph

A little over twice the wind speed, but 4.27 times as much force!!

To find the difference in ENERGY, we have to take the Integral of the equation. I estimate 5.88 X more energy in the CAT 5 vs. CAT 1.

For a CAT 3 of 115 mph (vs. 75 mph) the hurricane's wind generates 2.35 Times more Force (135% increase) than the CAT1 and about 2.4 times more energy. That's important to remember because the wind speed is 53% higher.


CAT 3 hurricanes generate a lot of angular momentum and wind speed, which is often greatest on the NE side since the wind is in the same direction usually as storm movement. The Bands are rotating around the center in a counterclockwise direction. The NE side of the hurricane is colliding with the coast and land with the highest velocity and therefore the greatest friction - the friction leads directly to shear and more rotation - and that increase the risk of spinoff for tornados. Very unstable air with lift - all the ingredients needed.


Those high levels of force and energy create the massive storm surges and flooding that are the most likely risk factor to take lives.

There is also more moisture coming off the GoM, making this the dirty side...and the Houston area would be in that region. To belabor the obvious, this is a VERY Dangerous situation.


I'm going to change plans today, and do some prep up in CLL. Water, nonperishables in case of grid outage...and I have to reinforce a fence that probably can't withstand sustained tropical force winds.

Rip76 wrote:WOW.

Look how huge this storm is.....if it makes landfall in corpus - se texas is under the gun.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.


But that was as of the 10 am update. I am sure it is much bigger now.

Whats it show Rip76? Cant see at work.

DJ...let us just say it is huge. Takes up almost all of the Texas Coast..and is growing..

DJ, let me break it to u last this, IF euro and GFS pan out its bad bad bad for Corpus to LA

stormlover wrote:DJ, let me break it to u last this, IF euro and GFS pan out its bad bad bad for Corpus to LA

then again...WOW! Not good!