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CAK wrote:I could be wrong but I think this thing just took a turn for east...

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-48-1

This is what I'm seeing.

CAK wrote:I could be wrong but I think this thing just took a turn for east...

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-48-1

Center is almost stationary, drifting east. The Unwinding of core and bands is moving precip east. Friction and reduction of winds are allowing centripetal expansion.

Seeing 2-4 inch an hour rain rate IMBY right now...began about 20 min ago.

I agree. The center of circulation easily seen on radar was mostly out of range of HGX all day, but now the whole center is visible! Overall though it is meandering around.

It's 86 at Hobby. There is some very warm and unstable air getting wrapped into the circulation off the Gulf. Probably enhancing the tornado threat in the Houston area.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
555 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Western Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 554 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. 2 to 4
inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin
shortly. Gauges at Walnut Creek in Waller County has reported 3
inches of rain in the last hour. These storms are moving into the
warned area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Todd Mission and Plantersville.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches of rain an hour are
possible in the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

Clearly crawling East.

Belmer wrote:The 18z NAM 3km is absolutely off the charts with rainfall the next 72 hours. I can't even fathom what these models are showing for us the next couple of days. The profile sounding over Houston shows the atmosphere can very well dump a tremendous amount of rain for our area tonight.

How much rain does it say for our area tonight and the next 72 hours? Thanks.

WHEW! What a wild afternoon in Cypress. I fear it will just get worse tonight. Everyone stay safe..

jasons wrote:It's 86 at Hobby. There is some very warm and unstable air getting wrapped into the circulation off the Gulf. Probably enhancing the tornado threat in the Houston area.

Mom said they had a bit of sunshine this afternoon in Deer Park. Unfortunately that destabilization has primed the atmosphere for a myriad of issues this evening into the overnight hours. These feeder bands can and will spin up tornadoes very quickly with little notice along with torrential tropical thunderstorms.

sambucol wrote:

Belmer wrote:The 18z NAM 3km is absolutely off the charts with rainfall the next 72 hours. I can't even fathom what these models are showing for us the next couple of days. The profile sounding over Houston shows the atmosphere can very well dump a tremendous amount of rain for our area tonight.

How much rain does it say for our area tonight and the next 72 hours? Thanks.

That particular model shows most all of Harris Co. getting at least 20 inches, but shows SE Harris County (Pearland, Pasadena, Deer Park, La Porte) getting 55+ inches in the next 72 hours. Think the highest I found was 59.88 inches. Now, highly unlikely that will happen, but it is increasingly likely someone is in for some serious rainfall tonight.

Any amounts close to that will break the US record for rainfall in a 24 hr period.

This band coming in from the west looks to be very intense. Looking like a long night and next few days for us

Does anyone know if any of the models had it going east/ene?

ronyan wrote:Any amounts close to that will break the US record for rainfall in a 24 hr period.

My apologies on the last post. That was for the next 72 hours (through Tuesday) what the NAM 3km was showing. That amount of rainfall is not forecasted for the next 18 hours. I have corrected that on the last page.

Belmer wrote:

ronyan wrote:Any amounts close to that will break the US record for rainfall in a 24 hr period.

My apologies on the last post. That was for the next 72 hours (through Tuesday) what the NAM 3km was showing. That amount of rainfall is not forecasted for the next 18 hours. I have corrected that on the last page.

Ah ok, I have to admit I was wondering whether they were giving liquor to the models.

Belmer wrote:

sambucol wrote:

Belmer wrote:The 18z NAM 3km is absolutely off the charts with rainfall the next 72 hours. I can't even fathom what these models are showing for us the next couple of days. The profile sounding over Houston shows the atmosphere can very well dump a tremendous amount of rain for our area tonight.

How much rain does it say for our area tonight and the next 72 hours? Thanks.

That particular model shows most all of Harris Co. getting at least 20 inches, but shows SE Harris County (Pearland, Pasadena, Deer Park, La Porte) getting 55+ inches in the next 72 hours. Think the highest I found was 59.88 inches. Now, highly unlikely that will happen, but it is increasingly likely someone is in for some serious rainfall tonight.

Wow!! Thank you for that info.

For those wondering about Harvey's movement. GOES 16 IR Long Loop Imagery suggest that the "center" has remained stationary since early this morning.

As for Harvey's center, I'm looking at a loop over the past several hours and don't see any significant movement. It's behaving precisely as predicted - stalling.

I'm hearing the thunder from the approaching squall line in SW Houston (south of Meyerland). Doppler radar indicates 2 areas of rotation south of Sugar Land that may contain tornadoes. They don't seem to be lasting very long once they develop. First one was larger and lasted maybe 15 minutes.

Models have done poorly predicting the location and amounts of heavy rainfall events in the past (HRRR/ETA). I wouldn't trust the amounts or the location, though they may have the general idea right.

Starting to rain hard here...

wxman57 wrote:As for Harvey's center, I'm looking at a loop over the past several hours and don't see any significant movement. It's behaving precisely as predicted - stalling.

I'm hearing the thunder from the approaching squall line in SW Houston (south of Meyerland). Doppler radar indicates 2 areas of rotation south of Sugar Land that may contain tornadoes. They don't seem to be lasting very long once they develop. First one was larger and lasted maybe 15 minutes.

Models have done poorly predicting the location and amounts of heavy rainfall events in the past (HRRR/ETA). I wouldn't trust the amounts or the location, though they may have the general idea right.

Starting to rain hard here...

Thanks for clarifying the movement (and Steve as well!). I was curious, did you get a good bike ride in before the storm?

NHC 7pm graphic now shows Harvey Moving ENE at 2mph. Maybe yall were right seeing it move NE. BUT..its probably no more than a wobble at the time of posting. We shall see. Here in beaumont. Hefty rainbands today, picked up close to 3" today. If that continues for the next couple of days, we will reach our est 10-15" from harvey. Grounds are now saturated and wint take much for major flooding to begin after today. From what i hear, our days of heavy rains begin tonight into Tuesday.