basketballrox88 wrote:Is it just me or do I see a NNW to N motion with Harvey now? If you live in a flood plain (100 year or 500 year) get out!
I think both Srain and Wxman 57 addressed..I think.....
The center will always follow the convection. As the heavy squalls rotate around the storm, the center will keep wobbling toward the heavier convection. It's on track for landfall near (just north of) Corpus Christi.
houstonia wrote:This is not urgent - and I don't know if Jeff Lindner every comes to this forum. I want to give a MAJOR shout-out to him. I heard him talking on KRBE this morning and he was really come across very clear about the weather threats, without overdoing it for the Houston folks. It's obviously difficult to describe the situation we are in right now. Obviously the peeps down along the coast are in dire straits and need to get out of there. Inland are more - different threats - and not quite as dire. Jeff did a great job of explaining this. Kudos!
Jeff is a frequent visitor and has posted about Harvey since we started tracking it. Jeff is a HUGE supporter of our efforts here on the KHOU Weather Forum and a good friend and one of the hardest working Meteorologist I know. Harris County is extremely fortunate to have someone of his work ethic, forecasting abilities and clearly telling us what we can expect. We are so very blessed as a Weather Community to have the multiple decades of experience with the Pro Mets we have on our KHOU Weather Forum. It is second to none when it comes to all their expertise.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I know they wobble and the turn can happen quickly but it really doesn't seem to be making the northwest jaunt to Corpus like almost every model shows. It look to be heading due north and closer to a Matagorda impact.
Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
Multiple observing platforms indicate that Harvey's structure is
evolving this morning. The hurricane has developed concentric
eyewalls, as observed in data from the WSR-88D Doppler radars in
Brownsville and Corpus Christi, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter plane reported double wind maxima with diameters of 12 and
28 n mi. The aircraft data indicate that the central pressure has
continued to fall--now down to 947 mb--but the maximum winds have
not increased further. This discrepancy is not surprising given
hurricane's current structure.
Intensity forecasts become complicated once a hurricane develops
concentric eyewalls, and fluctuations in intensity become more
likely. If an eyewall replacement occurs, then Harvey's intensity
could decrease a bit while at the same time the overall wind field
increases in size. However, the hurricane remains in an environment
for intensification, and strengthening beyond the current intensity
is still possible before the center reaches land. But in the end,
the hurricane's exact intensity at landfall does not change the
fact that catastrophic flooding due to a prolonged period of heavy
rainfall and/or storm surge is expected at the coast and well inland
across much of southern and southeastern Texas. Slow weakening is
expected after Harvey crosses the coast since the center is not
expected to move very far inland, and the cyclone is likely to
maintain tropical storm status through Wednesday.
Harvey has not quite begun to slow down, and the initial motion
estimate is 315/9 kt. Strong mid-level ridging building over the
western United States is still expected to impede Harvey's forward
motion in the coming days, and the track guidance continues to show
the hurricane meandering or stalling near or just inland of the
Texas coast in 36-48 hours. Harvey could begin moving slowly
eastward on days 4 and 5 due to the influence of a mid-level
shortwave trough digging southward over the upper Midwest, but at
this time it is too early to say whether the center will definitely
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Key Messages:
1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall
tonight, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to portions of the Texas coast. Preparations should be
rushed to completion in the warning areas as tropical-storm-force
winds are arriving on the coast, and conditions will continue to
deteriorate through the rest of today and tonight.
2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.
3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.
4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.
Rain bands and winds increasing…conditions will be rapidly deteriorating today.
All preparations should be completed at this time.
Tropical Storm force wind gusts and storm surge moving into the middle TX coast.
Discussion:
USAF mission and coastal radars show the formation of a complex inner core dynamic situation within Harvey with double wind maximum in place. One maximum is found at 12 NM from the center (inner eyewall) and the second is at 28 NM (second eyewall). The pressure has fallen to 949mb or down from 958mb this morning, yet surface winds have not responded to the lowered pressure likely due to the fact that Harvey is in an eyewall replacement cycle. Current sustained winds are near 110mph. It appears from the radar data out of BRO and CRP that Harvey is in no hurry to complete the eyewall cycle so expect the intensification to level off over the next few hours. With that said winds could increase some as the wind/pressure relationship attempts to equalize
There has been no significant changes to the forecast track nor intensity up through landfall.
Rainbands have begun to move inland along the entire TX coast which is a little faster than expected, especially along the upper TX coast.
The threat for tornadoes will be increasing and a Tornado Watch will likely be issued shortly for the upper TX coast. The risk for tornadoes within the feeder bands will last over the next 24-36 hours and these will be fast moving with little warning time.
There has been no changes to the forecast impacts to winds, storm surge, and rainfall.
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Mesoscale Discussion 1564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
Areas affected...Texas Gulf Coast areas northeastward into far
southwestern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 251519Z - 251815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Outer bands of convection associated with Hurricane Harvey
will continue to migrate toward the discussion area through the
afternoon, posing at least an isolated tornado threat. A Tornado
Watch may be needed at some point this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Several bands of convection are migrating
west-northwestward toward the Texas Gulf Coast currently. One well
defined band located from near BPT southeastward to Louisiana
coastal waters should impact areas of southeast Texas over the next
several hours, although the tornado threat with this activity should
remain relatively low into the afternoon hours until kinematic
profiles increase attendant to the approaching Harvey. Another band
of convection over coastal waters southeast of PRX is also fairly
well defined, with a couple of mid-level mesocyclones noted via
WSR-88D imagery in individual cells with that band. Additionally,
more isolated convection was located outside of these bands over
open coastal waters, and these storms will also migrate
northwestward toward the discussion area throughout the afternoon
and into the evening hours.
Over time, as the circulation of Harvey approaches the coast,
low-level flow across the discussion area will veer to
easterly/southeasterly and kinematic fields will strengthen further,
resulting in a more appreciable tornado threat as a more unstable
airmass (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) over coastal waters advances inland.
Pockets of surface insolation may also foster destabilization with
time.
While a tornado watch issuance is not immediately likely, one may be
needed over time as Harvey approaches land areas - more likely
during the afternoon hours.
I just have a bad feeling about this storm, my question is if a 2nd landfall occurs in our area, how bad could it get? and I know it depends on the strength of the storm.
Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
...12 PM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE...
...SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST...
A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a wind gust to 48 mph (78
km/h) were recently reported at the Bob Hall Pier near Corpus
Christi, Texas.
A sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust to 58 mph (94
km/h) were recently reported by NOAA buoy 42020, located about 40
miles off the coast of Texas.
NOAA tide gauges near Corpus Christi and Port Aransas indicate
storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 ft is already occurring.
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 96.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Berg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I had been on the local TV newscast for the last 3 days. I never heard anything about the dam releasing of water to lower the threshold a few days before Harvey arrival? If the hurricane is going to dump 36" of rain why no preempt to lower the reservoir level. In the last few years a short storm had caused flooding when the dam overflow and release of water AFTER the storm. Is the TV station forget about the dam?
