MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Hopefully it's a cool September for some tailgatin' in CS!
Just hangin' on until football season:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the TAF period across most of the terminals
tonight. With daytime heating and lift provided from the
prefrontal trough, could see isolated shower and thunderstorm
coverage this evening between 00-03Z near CXO, IAH, and HOU. As
the weak frontal passage sags southward, VCSH will be possible
across all sites between 06-12Z moving in from the NE and making
it to the coast by early morning. Short term guidance keeps the
chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
lingering through mid morning tomorrow. Gusty winds associated
with stronger storms will also be possible as the front moves
through the region. Expecting cloud cover to thicken enough to
allow for an MVFR deck in the early morning hours along the coast
at LBX and GLS, rising to VFR by late morning/early afternoon.
Hathaway
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017/
UPDATE...
West to southwest winds ahead of a weak cold front stretching from
the Red River into central MS/AL and mostly sunny skies had
allowed 10 AM CDT temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s
across most of Southeast Texas. Mid and high clouds associated
with convection along the aforementioned frontal boundary were
keeping temperatures a few degrees lower than the remainder of the
area and the main update for the forecast this morning was to
update temperatures for these hourly trends. Have made no changes
to the ongoing heat advisory as have concerns that this cloud
cover will keep heat index values below criteria over the
northeast as 700-300 MB relative humidity fields show clouds
persisting into the afternoon. That`s not to say today won`t be
hot across the area with afternoon highs climbing roughly into
the 95 to 103 range.
With SPC mesoanalysis showing 850 and 700 MB front oriented
roughly parallel to the cold front, expect the front to not make
it into the area until later this afternoon/evening and have
tweaked PoPs downward as a result. Still cannot rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening
hours north and northeast of the Houston metro however as the
frontal boundary or its associated prefrontal trough (located
from West Texas into Central Texas) trudges into the region.
Should a thunderstorm develop as this happens, it could be strong
and capable of gusty winds (forecast soundings out of College
Station and Lufkin show dry profiles below 700 MB). This would be
the exception and not the rule, however, with most of the region
not expected to see rain during the day today.