July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

[sau27]

I feel like this sums up the current state of the models regarding the tropics:

GFS: Guys are seeing this?
*uncomfortable silence*
GFS: Guys! I'm not crazy how do you not see this?
ECMWF: *whispers* No one make eye contact.
GFS: Bro?
GFS Parallel: *silently looks away*
GFS: CMC? I know at least you have my back on this one right?
CMC: Sooory budday, I think you may need to lay off the Red Bull. I'll call a cab to take you home.

[jasons2k]

It's up to 84 here now - warmest it's been all day. Will be watching for development again tonight.

[Katdaddy]

Finally some rain in W League City today. 1.10" and the yard is happy!

[Thundersleet]

Hi, guys. What is happening in the world of weather?

[StormOne]

I feel like this sums up the current state of the models regarding the tropics:

GFS: Guys are seeing this?
*uncomfortable silence*
GFS: Guys! I'm not crazy how do you not see this?
ECMWF: *whispers* No one make eye contact.
GFS: Bro?
GFS Parallel: *silently looks away*
GFS: CMC? I know at least you have my back on this one right?
CMC: Sooory budday, I think you may need to lay off the Red Bull. I'll call a cab to take you home.

Sounds like the other models are smart to not trust the GFS past 10 days out.

[Katdaddy]

Only a few showers offshore this morning. Afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms today will diminish slightly by Friday before increasing for the weekend. Each day through next Monday the afternoon thunderstorms will be capable of strong gusty winds; as well as, locally heavy rainfall with the slow movement.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
424 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
424 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today. The storms will be
slow moving and locally heavy rain will be possible in the
stronger storms. Isolated strong storms could produce brief gusty
winds during the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to be possible each day.
Isolated strong storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and
strong gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

[srainhoutx]

We continue to be in the vicinity of a general weakness between the Western Heat Ridge and the Bermuda Ridge suggesting that the unsettled pattern will remain in place throughout the rest of the work week and into the weekend.

MIMIC and Water Vapor Imagery suggest the remnants of TD 4 is nothing more that an open wave moving generally West toward the Bahamas. The wave axis extends from West of the Turks and Cacaos to Hispaniola with the moisture stretched out fro NW to SE behind the wave axis. This Easterly wave should cross Florida around Friday and continue West across the Gulf as an inverted trough axis increasing our rain chances Saturday night into early next week.





The wave across the Atlantic has fizzled out. The GFS was way too aggressive with development for that feature. Elsewhere in the Tropics, an area of Moderate to Strong thunderstorms have moved of South America into the SW Caribbean Sea and should continue on West into the EPAC. Wind shear across the Caribbean Sea is very hostile for tropical development at this time. We are likely about a month away before be begin to see an uptick in Tropical Activity in the Atlantic Basin. During this quiet time, tropically speaking, it's time to make sure you and your family have a Hurricane Action Plan prepared. If what we believe about the next several months regarding an active Hurricane Season, those Hurricane Action Plans could prove very valuable.

[CrashTestDummy]

Indeed. If you are 'thinking' about getting flood insurance, do so now. A little-known fact about flood insurance is that most insurance companies won't issue a policy if there's an active tropical cyclone in the GOM. That's even if it's just a tropical storm.

We were 'surprised' by this when we first bought flood insurance many years ago. It was just a bad coincidence that we had started talks about getting it, and by the time we got the quote, there was a storm in the Gulf. Luckily, that storm went ashore as a storm along the Florida panhandle, but it was kind of nerve wracking at the time.

[jasons2k]

And then there's that whole 30-day waiting period provision

[brooksgarner]

Then there's the need to pay in full for many FEMA Flood Zones -- cash -- $425+, instead of rolling it into an annual (paid monthly) insurance premium as part of a mortgage payment. Makes people in less impacted zones feel like it's easier to pass on it... until a TC hits and areas that "don't flood", flood.

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 111825
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
125 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

.AVIATION...
Storms developing over Chambers county and should spread westward
and northwestward. May help to enhance seabreeze with the outflow
moving into Liberty and eastern Harris county. This in turn will
likely increase chances that IAH/HOU will have direct impacts
(winds variable and gusty/VSBY reductions/possibly CIGS). from
storms today in the 20-23z timeframe. Otherwise diurnally driven
pattern to the storms and movement today with light south to
southwest winds becoming south to southeast by late afternoon.
Overnight storms dissipate and then redevelopment expected around
Galveston by or just before 12z expanding inland 15z and beyond
Wednesday.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Quick update.
MCV spinning away near BPT-LCH producing abundant mid level
cloudiness across SETX this morning. Cloud cover slowing the
temperature rises and adjusted temps down a degree or two across
the eastern half of the region. As mid clouds dissipate this
afternoon expect to see the convective temp of 88-90 degrees to be
reached and scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Local
diurnal convergence should drive the majority of storms so
probably greater chances across Galveston/Brazoria/Harris/
Liberty/Chambers/Ft Bend/Waller county through late afternoon.
Possible that some showers or thunderstorms could linger into the
early evening hours but if so will probably be north and east of
the Huntsville area.

Marine...
Status quo...1-2 foot seas and winds around 10 knots diminishing
to 5-10. Mainly showers over the coastal waters today and tonight.

45

[brooksgarner]

Looks like a second skyline, if you're in Houston looking east!

[DoctorMu]

Then there's the need to pay in full for many FEMA Flood Zones -- cash -- $425+, instead of rolling it into an annual (paid monthly) insurance premium as part of a mortgage payment. Makes people in less impacted zones feel like it's easier to pass on it... until a TC hits and areas that "don't flood", flood.

We were inundated in CLL from training via EPAC remnants in Oct 1994. 20 in of rain in 36 hours in CLL! I kicked down the fence to let water out of the backyard, but not before H2O seeped through the slab peepholes. Yes - It CAN happen to you!

We did move to higher ground a decade later where water moves away from the house in every direction

[srainhoutx]

As of yesterday, the ECMWF Upgraded version was released for Operational use and later in the month, the latest Upgrade GFS will be released as well as the new HMON Hurricane Model that will replace the HWRF.

The overnight ECMWF continues to suggest the remnants of what was TD 4 now crossing the Bahamas and near Florida will attempt to develop a weak surface reflection along the Southern Louisiana Coast Friday night into Saturday with a 850mb weak vort max passing offshore of Galveston Saturday night as it continue to trek West into the Lower Texas Coast on Sunday. We should see a bit of an increase in areal coverage of daytime shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the weekend.

[DoctorMu]

SW + TD remnants bring rain chances during the weekend. Seabreeze possible today. Hope we all get some rain in the next week before the spigot turns off.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1006 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Minor tweaks to the forecast this morning to account for current
observational trends in temperatures and dew points, as well as a
slight bump up in PoPs for this afternoon. Short term model
guidance such as the HRRR, RAP, and SREF all appear to be in
agreement regarding the timing and the coverage of the precip
today. As the seabreeze pushes inland, and the surface begins to
warm with daytime heating, expect shower and thunderstorm
development across much of the CWA, spreading from SW Matagorda
up through NE Houston counties and eastward. Burleson, Brazos, and
Washington will be slightly drier with less of a chance for
development, with PWs significantly lower between 1.7 to 1.8
inches. The rest of the CWA are more moist with PWs ranging
between 1.9 to 2.1 inches. Therefore added 50% PoPs to the
forecast for the counties surrounding Galveston Bay where most of
the development is currently located, and will continue to see
precip on and off throughout much of the afternoon hours.
Otherwise, typical summer-like day, with precip coverage becoming
more likely during the afternoon peak heating hours, and high
temperatures should reach up into the low to mid 90s across SE TX.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar this morning shows a few showers across the area mainly
east of a KIAH to KLBX line. GOES 16 precipitable water imagery
still shows higher moisture over Houston and to the east. This
seems to be a favored area for showers already this morning. The
expectation for today will be similar to yesterday with showers
giving way to thunderstorms with day time heating. TAFs for
Houston terminals will carry VCTS in the afternoon but ending
around 22Z. It looks like a similar forecast for the next day.

Overpeck

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A weak upper trough continued over Southeast Texas this morning.
PWs were near 2 inches over most of the area. The exception was
the southwestern set of counties where PWs were 1.7 and lower.
The isolated showers currently over the Gulf waters and the
coastal counties will likely spread inland later this morning and
through the afternoon.

The models show the 500 mb ridge building overhead but there are
some differences from the past few model runs. Model soundings
also do not show much of a capping inversion developing over the
next few days. Still think the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will diminish a bit by Friday but the developing
weakness will already start by the end of the day. Expect the rain
chances to increase over the weekend given an upper level
shortwave trough moving into the state from the Plains and an
inverted trough moving toward the area from the east. Next week
both the GFS and ECMWF show the ridge building back toward or over
Southeast Texas by Wednesday. The ECMWF was more aggressive while
the GFS kept the center of the ridge to the north and northeast of
the forecast area. This should result in lowering rain chances by
Tuesday at the earliest.

40

[CrashTestDummy]

And then there's that whole 30-day waiting period provision

It's been a couple of decades, so I forgot that little 'feature'! IIRC, we got notification that we had to get the flood insurance in like late September or early October, in the peak of the season. By the time we got ready to make the purchase, there was a storm in the GOM, so we had to wait until that went away before we could even PAY for the insurance. THEN, we were notified that there'd be the 30-day waiting period!! It's so nice they let you know all this stuff up front!!

Anyway, the season was pretty much over by the time we were actually covered. :-/

But, we've been covered ever since. It's now something like $645/year for us.

[Noles866]

Insurance agent here. If you have preferred risk policy and it is your primary home, with the maximum amount of coverage ($250,000 Building/$100,000 Contents), your premium should not be more than $450. If it is your secondary home $675. If you are paying $675 and it is your PRIMARY home, you need to talk to your agent and get them to send you a Primary Verification Form. Submitting that will lower your premium back to $450.

Also, first time posting but I look at this board everyday during the Hurricane season, along with the long range forecasts, and it makes my job easier. Knowing whether or not to start preparing clients, getting our offices situated, really helps me out.

[DoctorMu]

I feel a weakness in the Force.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
945 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have been developing near the coast this
morning. Expect activity to continue to develop and spread inland
for the rest of the morning and on into the afternoon as temperatures
rise into the 90s. Brief locally heavy rainfall will be the main weather
story for the day with the slower moving storms. Outside of the rain,
look for heat index values to easily rise into a 100-105 range. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar once again shows showers developing over the Gulf and
pushing inland before dissipating. TAFs will feature yet again
VCSH to start with possibly thunderstorms in the afternoon. VCTS
should suffice for covering the thunderstorm chances as likely see
a few storms develop with day time heating and the development of
the seas breeze. TAFs will have VFR ceilings/visibility unless a
thunderstorm moves over the TAF site.

Overpeck

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
SE Texas will be on the edge of a building upper level ridge. The
axis of the ridge will be just north of the area but over the next
several days, a weakness in the ridge will develop as trough
develops into the lower MS Valley and an inverted trough moves
across the Gulf of Mexico into the Upper TX coast. A consensus of
model solutions show the ridge redeveloping overhead over the last
part of the upcoming week.

So, for today a fairly moist air mass will be situated over the
northern northern half of the forecast area; although, PWs early
this morning only ranged from 1.7 in the southwestern counties to
2 inches in the north. Model soundings show a lack of a capping
inversion aloft. By this afternoon, the model forecast soundings
had an inverted V profile in the lowest 850 mb, indicating the
potential for gusty winds in the stronger storms. With the ridge
slightly stronger and PWs a bit lower, am expecting less coverage
of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The developing weakness
aloft combined with increasing moisture levels then show the
potential for better rain chances over the weekend and into
Monday. Next week should see chances for storms through mid week.


MARINE...
A moist airmass remains in place along the Upper Texas Coast so
showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this morning. Some
of these storms may produce gusty winds and briefly higher seas.
Thunderstorm activity should develop inland with the sea breeze
developing during the afternoon. Overall light to moderate southerly
winds will continue through the end of the week with seas around 1
to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each morning
in the Gulf waters.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 75 96 76 95 / 20 10 20 20 50
Houston (IAH) 92 75 93 76 93 / 40 10 30 10 60
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 90 80 90 / 30 10 40 10 50

&&

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances will begin to increase in areal coverage Saturday extending into next week as an Easterly tropical wave and the remnants of what was once TD4 continue pushing West bound across the Gulf of Mexico.

[srainhoutx]

Ingredients continue to come together suggesting increasing showers/storms developing tomorrow with an uptick in areal coverage Sunday through at least Tuesday as deep/rich tropical moisture with PW's near or slightly above 2.3 inches arrive as the remnants of an Easterly Wave currently across the Central and Northern Gulf advance West. Near the Yucatan Peninsula, an upper low is dropping SW toward the Bay of Campeche further assisting development along the Eastern flank of the weak wave axis. Another fly in the ointment is a weakness between the Western Heat Ridge and the Bermuda Ridge across our Region. Lowering pressures at the surface and aloft associated with this weakness suggests very heavy rainfall rates are possible with some locations picking up a quick 2-3 inches wherever the heaviest thunderstorms develop.





Generally I am expecting rainfall total of 2-4 inches with isolated amounts possibly nearing 6 inches+, if repeated rounds of storms organize. We are actually doing rather well in the rainfall department for most of our Region except for areas West of a College Station to Katy line for the month of July to date.

The Tropics remain quiet except for the EPAC and that should continue until around the end of July and early August when the Hemispheric Pattern may become much more conducive for Tropical Development in the North Atlantic Basin. I also wanted to note that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is at its lowest we have seen since that infamous year for Hurricanes in 2005.

We've seen some amazing sunrises from Coastal Storms and sunsets with inland Storms throughout the week. This is what I remember as a kid growing up in SE Texas in a "typical" summertime pattern.